Round 23 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Raiders v Knights

SavvyPlays · Sunday 09 August 2026 · GIO Stadium · 2:00pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Raiders n=20, Knights n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Raiders

Metric

Knights

MUST-WIN

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

22.6

Points For / G

25.6

Points Against / G

22.6

1,586m

Run Metres / G

1,586m

4.0

Tries / G

4.6

78.7%

Completion %

75.7%

4.9

Penalties Conceded / G

4.9

3.3

Six Agains / G

3.1

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Raiders

Metric

Knights

9-11-0#11

Season Record

#612-8-0

5-5-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-5-0 (A)

23.8Home · #9

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #428.8

21.8Home · #8

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #721.8

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Raiders

Metric

Knights

8-12-0 (40%)

2026 Season — All

13-7-0 (65%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-2-0 (80%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

Current Streak

24-22-0 (52%)

2025-26 — All

21-23-0 (48%)

14-10-0 (58%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

10-12-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

10-12-0 (45%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Raiders

Metric

Knights

9-11-0 (45%)

2026 Season — All

9-11-0 (45%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-6-0 (40%)

Current Streak

23-22-1 (51%)

2025-26 — All

17-27-0 (39%)

13-10-1 (57%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-14-0 (36%)

10-12-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

9-13-0 (41%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Raiders

Metric

Knights

11.2

1H Avg For

15.3

12.6

1H Avg Against

11.6

-1.4

1H Net

+3.7

75%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

7.5

2H Avg For

12.7

14.3

2H Avg Against

14.0

-6.9

2H Net

-1.3

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Raiders

Metric

Knights

162.1#6 Δ +5.6

Squad PCS

#7 Δ +0.0162.1

52.6#4 Δ +3.3

Spine PCS

#8 Δ +2.345.2

41.4#2 Δ +0.4

Forwards PCS

#13 Δ +0.334.0

59.6#10 Δ +1.8

Backs PCS

#5 Δ -2.075.9

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Raiders

Metric

Knights

13/20 (65%)

Scored first try — All games

11/20 (55%)

6/10 (60%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

7/20 (35%)

Conceded first try — All games

9/20 (45%)

4/10 (40%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

5 (H:3 A:2)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:3 A:0)

9 (H:5 A:4)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:2 A:1)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

4 (H:2 A:2)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Raiders

Metric

Knights

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Raiders

Metric

Knights

0.540

Overall CI

0.545

0.588

Defensive CI

0.551

19.4

Margin SD

17.0

3.1

Disruption

5.1

88%

Best-17 %

88%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Raiders — 88% Best 17 (DS 3.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -1.5

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kaeo Weekes	Fullback	20	-3.0
2	Jed Stuart	Wing	11	-0.7
3	Simi Sasagi	Centre	13	+3.0
4	Matthew Timoko	Centre	15	-0.5
5	Xavier Savage	Wing	15	-2.5
6	Ethan Strange	Five-Eighth	17	-4.8
7	Ethan Sanders	Halfback	20	-2.5
8	Corey Horsburgh	Prop	20	-3.1
9	Owen Pattie	Hooker	11	+2.7
10	Joseph Tapine	Prop	20	-2.1
11	Zac Hosking	Second Row	18	-1.0
12	Ata Mariota	Second Row	19	-3.2
13	Morgan Smithies	Lock	18	-1.3
14	Tom Starling	Interchange	20	-2.2
15	Joe Roddy	Interchange	—	—
16	Josh Papalii	Interchange	9	-2.9
17	Daine Laurie	Interchange	12	+0.7

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sebastian Kris (new this round), Hudson Young (3wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Knights — 88% Best 17 (DS 5.1) — Squad avg ±/G: +3.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kalyn Ponga	Fullback	11	+10.0
2	Dominic Young	Wing	20	+3.0
3	Dane Gagai	Centre	19	+3.2
4	Bradman Best	Centre	12	+6.9
5	Greg Marzhew	Wing	19	+4.2
6	Fletcher Sharpe	Five-Eighth	18	+3.6
7	Sandon Smith	Halfback	13	+0.2
8	Tyson Frizell	Prop	18	+2.3
9	Phoenix Crossland	Hooker	20	+2.1
10	Trey Mooney	Prop	18	+3.3
11	Jermaine McEwen	Second Row	16	+1.8
12	Francis Manuleleua	Second Row	7	-0.4
13	Mat Croker	Lock	20	+3.9
14	Harrison Graham	Interchange	13	+1.1
15	Cody Hopwood	Interchange	2	+11.0
16	Lachlan Crouch	Interchange	—	—
17	Thomas Cant	Interchange	11	+1.6

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Dylan Brown (2wk absent), Dylan Lucas (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Jacob Saifiti (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Raiders — Recent Form

12Raiders — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Panthers	A	18-42	L	-24	+9.5	L	44.5	O
2026 R21	Wests Tigers	H	56-10	W	+46	-15.5	W	51.5	O
2026 R20	Rabbitohs	H	34-24	W	+10	-0.5	W	49.5	O
2026 R19	Bulldogs	A	40-16	W	+24	+3.5	W	42.5	O
2026 R17	Dragons	H	24-16	W	+8	-9.5	L	50.5	U

Knights — Recent Form

13Knights — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Broncos	A	30-6	W	+24	+5.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R21	Roosters	H	22-23	L	-1	+8.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R20	Sharks	A	18-20	L	-2	+8.5	W	44.0	U
2026 R19	Rabbitohs	A	24-26	L	-2	-2.5	L	48.0	O
2026 R18	Dolphins	H	13-12	W	+1	+1.5	W	49.0	U

Raiders — Try Scoring

14Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
K.Weekes	Fullback	11	1	—	3	6	1	1	6 / 5
X.Savage	Wing	9	1	—	2	1	5	1	5 / 4
S.Tamale	Interchange	7	2	1	2	2	2	1	4 / 3
M.Timoko	Centre	6	1	1	1	2	1	2	2 / 4
E.Strange	Five-Eighth	6	—	—	0	2	1	3	3 / 3
S.Sasagi	Centre	5	3	—	4	0	0	1	1 / 4
H.Young	Second Row	5	1	—	3	2	0	0	3 / 2
J.Stuart	Wing	4	2	—	2	0	1	1	4 / 0
S.Kris	Centre	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	3 / 1
N.Martin	Second Row	4	—	—	2	1	1	0	1 / 3

Knights — Try Scoring

15Knights — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
G.Marzhew	Wing	19	2	2	3	7	3	6	8 / 11
D.Young	Wing	17	1	3	4	3	5	5	4 / 13
D.Lucas	Second Row	10	2	—	3	5	2	0	6 / 4
F.Sharpe	Five-Eighth	9	3	1	5	2	0	2	4 / 5
F.Hunt	Interchange	8	1	—	2	4	0	2	3 / 5
T.Mooney	Prop	5	1	3	2	0	0	3	3 / 2
K.Ponga	Fullback	4	1	—	1	1	0	2	0 / 4
B.Best	Centre	4	—	2	0	1	1	2	3 / 1
P.Crossland	Hooker	3	—	—	0	1	2	0	2 / 1
H.Graham	Interchange	2	—	1	0	0	1	1	1 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Raiders by 4

Lean · MUST-WIN v MUST-WIN

Win

Raiders -1.5

predicted Raiders margin +4 vs line -1.5

ATS

Over 45.5

projected 48.1 · edge +2.6

Over / Under

Knights Backs

HIGH · 2.10/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Raiders (vs Knights defence)
1	Backs	1.40	1.65	1.52 HIGH
2	Spine	1.10	1.35	1.23 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.75	0.80	0.78 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.70	0.25	0.47 LOW
Attacking Knights (vs Raiders defence)
1	Backs	2.10	2.10	2.10 HIGH
2	Spine	0.95	1.25	1.10 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.95	0.90	0.93 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.60	0.25	0.42 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Knights Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.10/game (Knights backs score 2.10/game; Raiders concede to the backs at 2.10/game).

Both sides are desperate — the Raiders' GIO home advantage and the Knights' halfback absence tip it narrowly.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.