Round 23 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Roosters v Bulldogs

SavvyPlays · Friday 07 August 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 8:00pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Roosters n=19, Bulldogs n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

TOP 4 BATTLE

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

27.9

Points For / G

19.9

19.8

Points Against / G

22.2

1,678m

Run Metres / G

1,610m

5.0

Tries / G

3.4

75.1%

Completion %

77.2%

5.1

Penalties Conceded / G

5.0

3.4

Six Agains / G

2.9

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

14-5-0#2

Season Record

#810-9-0

7-2-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games3-6-0 (A)

23.9Home · #8

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1320.0

18.0Home · #4

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1427.8

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

9-10-0 (47%)

2026 Season — All

8-11-0 (42%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

Current Streak

22-22-0 (50%)

2025-26 — All

20-25-0 (44%)

10-11-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-14-0 (36%)

12-11-0 (52%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

12-11-0 (52%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

9-10-0 (47%)

2026 Season — All

7-12-0 (37%)

3-6-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-4-0 (56%)

6-4-0 (60%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

2-8-0 (20%)

Current Streak

24-20-0 (55%)

2025-26 — All

18-27-0 (40%)

13-8-0 (62%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

11-12-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-16-0 (30%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

12.0

1H Avg For

7.0

11.3

1H Avg Against

13.6

+0.7

1H Net

-6.6

100%

1H Win → Match Win

75%

13.7

2H Avg For

10.4

10.6

2H Avg Against

10.9

+3.1

2H Net

-0.4

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

183.6#3 Δ +8.6

Squad PCS

#10 Δ +5.5151.3

53.2#2 Δ +6.0

Spine PCS

#7 Δ +1.545.9

35.5#8 Δ -0.3

Forwards PCS

#6 Δ +3.736.8

76.1#4 Δ +2.0

Backs PCS

#8 Δ +1.666.7

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

13/19 (68%)

Scored first try — All games

8/19 (42%)

8/9 (89%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/9 (33%)

6/19 (32%)

Conceded first try — All games

10/19 (53%)

1/9 (11%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/9 (67%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:2 A:0)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:2 A:1)

5 (H:3 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

9 (H:4 A:5)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Roosters

Metric

Bulldogs

0.484

Overall CI

0.542

0.551

Defensive CI

0.543

25.6

Margin SD

17.0

1.5

Disruption

0.6

93%

Best-17 %

94%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Roosters — 93% Best 17 (DS 1.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +8.1

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	James Tedesco	Fullback	16	+8.8
2	Billy Smith	Wing	10	-0.2
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	15	+14.7
4	Robert Toia	Centre	16	+13.1
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	14	+12.1
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	19	+8.2
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	17	+10.4
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	19	+5.2
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	15	+12.3
10	Spencer Leniu	Prop	15	+2.9
11	Salesi Foketi	Second Row	16	+0.2
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	19	+8.7
13	Victor Radley	Lock	13	+8.9
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	18	+4.7
15	Lindsay Collins	Interchange	13	-0.2
16	Nat Butcher	Interchange	17	+7.5
17	Egan Butcher	Interchange	13	+1.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Daniel Tupou (2wk absent). Long-term (2): Angus Crichton (7wk), Blake Steep (14wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Bulldogs — 94% Best 17 (DS 0.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -0.3

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Connor Tracey	Fullback	16	-3.1
2	Jacob Kiraz	Wing	15	+2.9
3	Matt Burton	Centre	18	-0.8
4	Enari Tuala	Centre	15	+1.1
5	Jethro Rinakama	Wing	8	+6.5
6	Stephen Crichton	Five-Eighth	14	-5.1
7	Lachlan Galvin	Halfback	19	-2.3
8	Max King	Prop	15	-0.1
9	Bailey Hayward	Hooker	17	+1.6
10	Leo Thompson	Prop	14	-1.9
11	Viliame Kikau	Second Row	10	+1.7
12	Jacob Preston	Second Row	15	-3.1
13	Jaeman Salmon	Lock	19	-1.7
14	Kurt Mann	Interchange	15	-2.2
15	Josh Curran	Interchange	13	+3.1
16	Harry Hayes	Interchange	16	-3.1
17	Sitili Tupouniua	Interchange	14	-6.9

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Marcelo Montoya (3wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Roosters — Recent Form

12Roosters — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Cowboys	A	82-12	W	+70	-5.5	W	44.5	O
2026 R21	Knights	A	23-22	W	+1	-8.5	L	45.5	U
2026 R20	Storm	H	14-6	W	+8	-11.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R19	Eels	H	28-12	W	+16	-10.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R17	Broncos	A	24-18	W	+6	-7.5	L	48.5	U

Bulldogs — Recent Form

13Bulldogs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Storm	A	36-22	W	+14	-10.5	W	42.5	O
2026 R21	Warriors	H	18-6	W	+12	+3.5	W	41.5	U
2026 R20	Wests Tigers	H	32-0	W	+32	-5.5	W	44.5	U
2026 R19	Raiders	H	16-40	L	-24	-3.5	L	42.5	O
2026 R17	Titans	A	30-12	W	+18	+1.5	W	44.5	U

Roosters — Try Scoring

14Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
M.Nawaqanitawase	Wing	15	1	3	4	3	3	5	5 / 10
D.Tupou	Wing	12	—	2	1	2	2	7	7 / 5
J.Tedesco	Fullback	11	2	1	3	2	4	2	4 / 7
R.Toia	Centre	10	2	1	2	4	2	2	5 / 5
S.Walker	Halfback	9	1	1	3	3	1	2	2 / 7
B.Smith	Centre	8	1	—	1	3	2	2	3 / 5
H.Savala	Centre	8	—	1	2	2	2	2	5 / 3
D.Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	4	2	—	2	0	1	1	2 / 2
S.Wong	Second Row	3	2	—	3	0	0	0	2 / 1
R.Robson	Hooker	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

Bulldogs — Try Scoring

15Bulldogs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Rinakama	Wing	7	2	—	2	1	2	2	4 / 3
J.Kiraz	Wing	7	1	2	2	1	2	2	5 / 2
S.Crichton	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	2	2	2	3 / 4
L.Galvin	Halfback	6	1	1	1	1	1	3	2 / 4
M.Burton	Centre	6	—	—	0	0	4	2	4 / 2
J.Curran	Interchange	6	—	2	1	1	1	3	3 / 3
J.Preston	Second Row	5	1	—	2	1	1	1	3 / 2
S.Tupouniua	Second Row	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	3 / 1
J.Salmon	Lock	3	1	—	2	1	0	0	0 / 3
C.Tracey	Fullback	3	—	2	1	0	0	2	1 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Roosters by 14

Strong · TOP 4 BATTLE v MUST-WIN

Win

Roosters -9.5

predicted Roosters margin +14 vs line -9.5

ATS

—

projected total 44.4

Over / Under

Roosters Backs

HIGH · 2.47/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Roosters (vs Bulldogs defence)
1	Backs	2.84	2.11	2.47 HIGH
2	Spine	1.42	0.89	1.16 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.47	0.58	0.53 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.26	0.32	0.29 LOW
Attacking Bulldogs (vs Roosters defence)
1	Backs	1.32	1.58	1.45 HIGH
2	Spine	0.84	0.95	0.89 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.79	0.63	0.71 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.42	0.26	0.34 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Roosters Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.47/game (Roosters backs score 2.84/game; Bulldogs concede to the backs at 2.11/game).

The Bulldogs are fighting for finals but face the competition's form team at a poor venue.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.