Storm v Sea Eagles
SavvyPlays · Saturday 08 August 2026 · HBF Park · 3:00pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Storm n=20, Sea Eagles n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Storm — 67% Best 17 (DS 9.3) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.3
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | Fullback | 20 | -2.3 |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | Wing | 4 | -14.0 |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | Centre | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | Centre | 16 | -2.1 |
| 5 | Moses Leo | Wing | 13 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | Five-Eighth | 15 | +0.3 |
| 7 | Hayden Watson | Halfback | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | Prop | 20 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Tyran Wishart | Hooker | 13 | -3.1 |
| 10 | Josh King | Prop | 20 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | Second Row | 20 | -4.7 |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | Second Row | 4 | -7.5 |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | Lock | 17 | -4.2 |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | Interchange | 9 | -8.9 |
| 15 | Shawn Blore | Interchange | 9 | +3.8 |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | Interchange | 9 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Angus Hinchey | Interchange | — | — |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jahrome Hughes (new this round), Harry Grant (2wk absent), Alec MacDonald (new this round), Will Warbrick (3wk absent), Josiah Pahulu (3wk absent). Long-term (2): Ativalu Lisati (6wk), Xavier Coates (19wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Sea Eagles — 79% Best 17 (DS 4.6) — Squad avg ±/G: +2.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | Fullback | 18 | +4.7 |
| 2 | Jason Saab | Wing | 18 | +3.1 |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | Centre | 16 | +6.4 |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | Centre | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Blake Wilson | Wing | 2 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | Five-Eighth | 5 | -8.8 |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | Halfback | 17 | +4.1 |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | Prop | 19 | +3.8 |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | Hooker | 12 | +6.9 |
| 10 | Ethan Bullemor | Prop | 16 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | Second Row | 16 | +7.6 |
| 12 | Corey Waddell | Second Row | 8 | +4.0 |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | Lock | 19 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | Interchange | 19 | +1.4 |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | Interchange | 14 | +0.9 |
| 16 | Simione Laiafi | Interchange | 2 | -21.0 |
| 17 | Fletcher Baker | Interchange | — | — |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Ben Trbojevic (2wk absent), Tom Trbojevic (3wk absent), Kobe Hetherington (2wk absent). Long-term (3): Luke Brooks (6wk), Lachlan Croker (19wk), Siosiua Taukeiaho (13wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Storm — Recent Form
12Storm — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R22 | Bulldogs | H | 22-36 | L | -14 | +10.5 | L | 42.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Rabbitohs | A | 26-28 | L | -2 | -1.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Roosters | A | 6-14 | L | -8 | +11.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 2026 R19 | Titans | H | 22-18 | W | +4 | -9.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R17 | Sea Eagles | A | 4-30 | L | -26 | +5.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
Sea Eagles — Recent Form
13Sea Eagles — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R21 | Sharks | H | 12-48 | L | -36 | +3.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Titans | A | 32-38 | L | -6 | -4.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 2026 R19 | Cowboys | H | 18-19 | L | -1 | -6.5 | L | 48.0 | U |
| 2026 R18 | Eels | A | 14-23 | L | -9 | -10.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R17 | Storm | H | 30-4 | W | +26 | -5.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
Storm — Try Scoring
14Storm — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Warbrick | Wing | 16 | 2 | — | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 / 7 |
| S.Fa'alogo | Fullback | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 7 / 8 |
| M.Leo | Wing | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 / 4 |
| H.Grant | Interchange | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Howarth | Centre | 5 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 2 |
| N.Meaney | Centre | 4 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 / 3 |
| C.Munster | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| A.Lisati | Second Row | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 / 0 |
| J.Hughes | Halfback | 3 | — | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| T.Wishart | Five-Eighth | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 / 2 |
Sea Eagles — Try Scoring
15Sea Eagles — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Hopoate | Fullback | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 10 |
| J.Saab | Wing | 12 | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 / 6 |
| H.Olakau'atu | Second Row | 8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 / 3 |
| T.Koula | Wing | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 / 3 |
| T.Trbojevic | Fullback | 7 | 4 | — | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 / 3 |
| R.Garrick | Centre | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 5 |
| C.Faulalo | Centre | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 / 3 |
| B.Trbojevic | Second Row | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 / 3 |
| J.Fogarty | Halfback | 4 | — | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Walsh | Five-Eighth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Storm (vs Sea Eagles defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.90 | 1.63 | 1.77 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.25 | 0.84 | 1.05 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.55 | 0.79 | 0.67 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.43 LOW |
| Attacking Sea Eagles (vs Storm defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.74 | 2.35 | 2.04 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.63 | 0.85 | 1.24 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.84 | 1.20 | 1.02 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.21 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Sea Eagles Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.04/game (Sea Eagles backs score 1.74/game; Storm concede to the backs at 2.35/game).
The Storm are eliminated; the Sea Eagles need four of their last five — every game is a final. The Storm's pride factor is the risk.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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