Round 23 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Titans v Cowboys

SavvyPlays · Thursday 06 August 2026 · Cbus Super Stadium · 7:50pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Titans n=19, Cowboys n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

19.9

Points For / G

22.7

26.4

Points Against / G

27.6

1,536m

Run Metres / G

1,610m

3.5

Tries / G

4.0

74.5%

Completion %

75.1%

3.8

Penalties Conceded / G

5.4

3.7

Six Agains / G

5.0

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

6-13-0#15

Season Record

#711-9-0

3-5-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-5-0 (A)

16.6Home · #16

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1121.4

28.2Home · #14

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #824.5

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

11-8-0 (58%)

2026 Season — All

11-9-0 (55%)

3-5-0 (38%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

8-3-0 (73%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-4-0 (60%)

Current Streak

21-22-0 (49%)

2025-26 — All

24-20-0 (55%)

9-11-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

12-11-0 (52%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-9-0 (59%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

6-13-0 (32%)

2026 Season — All

9-11-0 (45%)

1-7-0 (12%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

5-6-0 (46%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-6-0 (40%)

Current Streak

18-25-0 (42%)

2025-26 — All

23-21-0 (52%)

5-15-0 (25%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-10-0 (55%)

13-10-0 (57%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

7.1

1H Avg For

13.6

12.6

1H Avg Against

12.9

-5.4

1H Net

+0.7

33%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

11.9

2H Avg For

10.6

12.9

2H Avg Against

13.1

-1.0

2H Net

-2.5

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

137.6#13 Δ -5.1

Squad PCS

#12 Δ -13.4141.1

39.5#12 Δ -1.4

Spine PCS

#6 Δ -3.146.9

32.5#14 Δ -1.2

Forwards PCS

#15 Δ -0.931.4

54.1#12 Δ -1.2

Backs PCS

#13 Δ -7.253.0

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

3/19 (16%)

Scored first try — All games

9/20 (45%)

1/8 (12%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/10 (30%)

15/19 (79%)

Conceded first try — All games

10/20 (50%)

7/8 (88%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/10 (60%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

9 (H:3 A:6)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

7 (H:3 A:4)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Titans

Metric

Cowboys

0.546

Overall CI

0.463

0.593

Defensive CI

0.460

18.8

Margin SD

23.0

0.6

Disruption

6.9

100%

Best-17 %

81%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Titans — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Keano Kini	Fullback	19	-6.7
2	Dean Ieremia	Wing	4	-6.5
3	Jojo Fifita	Centre	17	-6.6
4	AJ Brimson	Centre	17	-5.8
5	Phillip Sami	Wing	19	-6.4
6	Jayden Campbell	Five-Eighth	17	-4.6
7	Lachlan Ilias	Halfback	8	-5.8
8	Moeaki Fotuaika	Prop	19	-7.5
9	Oliver Pascoe	Hooker	11	-6.9
10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	Prop	16	-5.4
11	Arama Hau	Second Row	19	-5.9
12	Beau Fermor	Second Row	19	-6.7
13	Chris Randall	Lock	16	-3.4
14	Kurtis Morrin	Interchange	17	-0.2
15	Josh Patston	Interchange	—	—
16	Klese Haas	Interchange	18	-2.9
17	Cooper Bai	Interchange	18	-2.2

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (2): Jaimin Jolliffe (19wk), Max Feagai (8wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Cowboys — 81% Best 17 (DS 6.9) — Squad avg ±/G: -4.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	20	-5.5
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	16	-5.4
3	Zac Laybutt	Centre	14	-8.6
4	Tom Chester	Centre	19	-5.4
5	Murray Taulagi	Wing	15	-7.0
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	20	-4.9
7	Jaxon Purdue	Halfback	20	-4.9
8	Griffin Neame	Prop	19	+0.2
9	Soni Luke	Hooker	14	-3.5
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	19	-1.9
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	20	-4.9
12	Kai O'Donnell	Second Row	5	+0.4
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	17	-0.2
14	Ethan King	Interchange	3	-10.0
15	Thomas Mikaele	Interchange	17	+0.7
16	Matthew Lodge	Interchange	15	-4.8
17	Coen Hess	Interchange	20	-5.7

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Reed Mahoney (2wk absent), Jeremiah Nanai (new this round), Tom Dearden (3wk absent). Long-term (1): Robert Derby (9wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Titans — Recent Form

12Titans — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Warriors	H	6-42	L	-36	+4.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R21	Dragons	A	38-18	W	+20	+1.5	W	47.5	O
2026 R20	Sea Eagles	H	38-32	W	+6	+4.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R19	Storm	A	18-22	L	-4	+9.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R17	Bulldogs	H	12-30	L	-18	-1.5	L	44.5	U

Cowboys — Recent Form

13Cowboys — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Roosters	H	12-82	L	-70	+5.5	L	44.5	O
2026 R21	Broncos	H	18-10	W	+8	+4.5	W	47.5	U
2026 R20	Dolphins	A	16-36	L	-20	+3.5	L	50.0	O
2026 R19	Sea Eagles	A	19-18	W	+1	+6.5	W	48.0	U
2026 R17	Panthers	H	26-12	W	+14	+13.5	W	49.5	U

Titans — Try Scoring

14Titans — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
P.Sami	Wing	12	—	1	2	2	2	6	6 / 6
J.Campbell	Five-Eighth	9	—	—	1	2	4	2	0 / 9
J.Fifita	Centre	7	1	1	0	3	1	3	5 / 2
A.Hau	Second Row	7	1	1	1	2	1	3	4 / 3
K.Morrin	Interchange	6	—	1	0	3	2	1	2 / 4
O.Pascoe	Hooker	4	1	—	2	1	1	0	3 / 1
S.Faeamani	Interchange	4	—	—	1	0	1	2	0 / 4
A.Brimson	Centre	3	—	1	1	1	0	1	1 / 2
K.Kini	Fullback	3	—	2	0	0	0	3	0 / 3
C.Bai	Interchange	2	—	—	0	0	2	0	0 / 2

Cowboys — Try Scoring

15Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
B.Burns	Wing	13	—	2	2	4	3	4	4 / 9
M.Taulagi	Wing	11	2	—	4	3	3	1	8 / 3
S.Drinkwater	Fullback	9	2	—	2	5	0	2	2 / 7
T.Chester	Centre	8	1	—	2	1	2	3	5 / 3
H.Luki	Second Row	8	1	3	2	1	0	5	5 / 3
J.Clifford	Five-Eighth	7	1	3	1	2	0	4	5 / 2
J.Purdue	Halfback	6	—	—	1	3	2	0	2 / 4
J.Nanai	Second Row	4	—	1	1	1	0	2	2 / 2
R.Mahoney	Hooker	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	3 / 0
Z.Laybutt	Centre	2	1	—	2	0	0	0	1 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Titans by 2

Lean · WOODEN SPOON RACE v MUST-WIN

Win

Titans +3.5

predicted Titans margin +2 vs line +3.5

ATS

Under 48.5

projected 44.1 · edge -4.4

Over / Under

Cowboys Backs

HIGH · 2.11/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Titans (vs Cowboys defence)
1	Backs	1.21	2.65	1.93 HIGH
2	Spine	0.84	1.30	1.07 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.63	0.60	0.62 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.79	0.40	0.59 LOW
Attacking Cowboys (vs Titans defence)
1	Backs	1.70	2.53	2.11 HIGH
2	Spine	1.55	1.26	1.41 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.70	0.74	0.72 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.10	0.21	0.16 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Cowboys Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.11/game (Cowboys backs score 1.70/game; Titans concede to the backs at 2.53/game).

Override driven by disruption — the Cowboys are missing three key spine and middle players. Motivation (MUST-WIN) is the main counterweight.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.