Round 24 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Broncos v Warriors

SavvyPlays · Saturday 15 August 2026 · Suncorp Stadium · 7:35pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Broncos n=20, Warriors n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

18.9

Points For / G

28.3

27.1

Points Against / G

16.2

1,398m

Run Metres / G

1,676m

3.2

Tries / G

5.0

77.1%

Completion %

80.3%

5.8

Penalties Conceded / G

4.4

4.5

Six Agains / G

4.5

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

6-14-0#15

Season Record

#314-6-0

2-8-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games6-4-0 (A)

21.0Home · #13

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #328.6

26.5Home · #11

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #216.4

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

7-12-0 (37%)

2026 Season — All

11-8-0 (58%)

3-7-0 (30%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

7-3-0 (70%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

Current Streak

23-22-1 (51%)

2025-26 — All

22-20-2 (52%)

12-11-0 (52%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-9-1 (57%)

11-11-1 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

10-11-1 (48%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

7-12-0 (37%)

2026 Season — All

6-13-0 (32%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-7-0 (30%)

3-6-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

Current Streak

20-26-0 (43%)

2025-26 — All

17-27-0 (39%)

11-12-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-12-0 (45%)

9-14-0 (39%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-15-0 (32%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

8.0

1H Avg For

14.1

15.7

1H Avg Against

9.7

-7.7

1H Net

+4.4

80%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

12.1

2H Avg For

15.4

12.1

2H Avg Against

7.7

+0.0

2H Net

+7.7

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

128.4#15 Δ -1.1

Squad PCS

#4 Δ +5.0178.6

34.1#14 Δ +2.3

Spine PCS

#9 Δ +2.646.1

34.4#11 Δ +0.3

Forwards PCS

#2 Δ +2.340.3

52.2#13 Δ -3.2

Backs PCS

#6 Δ +0.670.2

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

8/20 (40%)

Scored first try — All games

11/20 (55%)

5/10 (50%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/10 (30%)

12/20 (60%)

Conceded first try — All games

7/20 (35%)

5/10 (50%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/10 (60%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

2 (H:1 A:1)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

8 (H:6 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

4 (H:1 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

7 (H:4 A:3)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Broncos

Metric

Warriors

0.562

Overall CI

0.589

0.570

Defensive CI

0.649

15.9

Margin SD

16.4

4.2

Disruption

3.9

88%

Best-17 %

87%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Broncos — 88% Best 17 (DS 4.2) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Reece Walsh	Fullback	15	-7.9
2	Josiah Karapani	Wing	18	-8.7
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	17	-3.8
4	Deine Mariner	Centre	14	-2.9
5	Grant Anderson	Wing	8	-11.1
6	Ezra Mam	Five-Eighth	18	-4.9
7	Thomas Duffy	Halfback	7	-10.3
8	Xavier Willison	Prop	20	-5.0
9	Billy Walters	Hooker	3	+0.0
10	Payne Haas	Prop	13	-3.3
11	Jaiyden Hunt	Second Row	5	-12.0
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	18	-8.0
13	Patrick Carrigan	Lock	14	-7.7
14	Ben Hunt	Interchange	13	-7.0
15	Aublix Tawha	Interchange	6	-6.7
16	Jack Gosiewski	Interchange	10	-0.3
17	Va'a Semu	Interchange	10	-6.6

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Adam Reynolds (2wk absent), Brendan Piakura (4wk absent). Long-term (1): Corey Jensen (17wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Warriors — 87% Best 17 (DS 3.9) — Squad avg ±/G: +7.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad	Fullback	11	+8.9
2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	19	+11.1
3	Ali Leiataua	Centre	16	+14.9
4	Leka Halasima	Centre	15	+7.6
5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira	Wing	12	+10.3
6	Chanel Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	17	+12.6
7	Luke Metcalf	Halfback	2	-19.0
8	James Fisher-Harris	Prop	17	+7.6
9	Wayde Egan	Hooker	20	+9.9
10	Mitchell Barnett	Prop	11	+5.1
11	Kurt Capewell	Second Row	10	+14.0
12	Jacob Laban	Second Row	19	+9.3
13	Erin Clark	Lock	20	+8.1
14	Sam Healey	Interchange	17	+3.6
15	Tanner Stowers-Smith	Interchange	15	+6.9
16	Demitric Vaimauga	Interchange	17	+7.5
17	Eddie Ieremia-Toeava	Interchange	8	+8.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Te Maire Martin (2wk absent), Marata Niukore (4wk absent). Long-term (2): Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (12wk), Jackson Ford (8wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Broncos — Recent Form

12Broncos — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Dolphins	A	32-40	L	-8	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Knights	H	6-30	L	-24	-5.5	L	45.5	U
2026 R21	Cowboys	A	10-18	L	-8	-4.5	L	47.5	U
2026 R20	Panthers	A	14-12	W	+2	+12.5	W	44.5	U
2026 R18	Sharks	H	16-28	L	-12	+6.5	L	48.5	U

Warriors — Recent Form

13Warriors — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Panthers	H	28-12	W	+16	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Titans	A	42-6	W	+36	-4.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R21	Bulldogs	A	6-18	L	-12	-3.5	L	41.5	U
2026 R20	Dragons	H	20-12	W	+8	-16.5	L	46.5	U
2026 R19	Wests Tigers	A	32-6	W	+26	-8.5	W	45.5	U

Broncos — Try Scoring

14Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
K.Staggs	Centre	8	2	2	3	2	2	1	6 / 2
E.Mam	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	2	1	3	1	2 / 5
R.Walsh	Fullback	6	2	—	2	0	3	1	4 / 2
X.Willison	Prop	6	—	1	0	2	2	2	2 / 4
J.Karapani	Wing	6	—	1	0	3	1	2	3 / 3
J.Arthars	Interchange	5	—	1	0	1	3	1	4 / 1
J.Riki	Second Row	4	1	—	1	0	2	1	0 / 4
D.Mariner	Centre	4	—	—	1	2	0	1	2 / 2
G.Shibasaki	Interchange	3	1	—	1	0	1	1	2 / 1
A.Reynolds	Halfback	3	—	—	0	1	2	0	1 / 2

Warriors — Try Scoring

15Warriors — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
D.Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	18	3	5	5	6	4	3	8 / 10
A.Khan-Pereira	Wing	13	2	—	6	3	2	2	5 / 8
C.Nicoll-Klokstad	Fullback	9	2	1	3	1	2	3	8 / 1
L.Halasima	Centre	6	—	—	1	2	2	1	3 / 3
C.Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	6	—	1	1	3	0	2	4 / 2
T.Martin	Halfback	6	—	2	1	1	2	2	2 / 4
E.Clark	Lock	5	1	1	2	1	1	1	3 / 2
A.Leiataua	Centre	4	1	—	2	0	2	0	2 / 2
J.Laban	Second Row	4	—	—	3	1	0	0	1 / 3
J.Ford	Prop	4	—	—	0	1	1	2	1 / 3

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Warriors by 12

Strong · WOODEN SPOON RACE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Warriors -7.5

predicted Broncos margin -12 vs line +7.5

ATS

Under 47.5

projected 46.7 · edge -0.8

Over / Under

Warriors Backs

HIGH · 2.15/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Broncos (vs Warriors defence)
1	Backs	1.05	1.35	1.20 HIGH
2	Spine	0.95	0.80	0.88 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.70	0.60	0.65 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.55	0.10	0.33 LOW
Attacking Warriors (vs Broncos defence)
1	Backs	2.15	2.15	2.15 HIGH
2	Spine	1.40	1.50	1.45 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.85	0.50	0.68 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.55	0.35	0.45 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Warriors Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.15/game (Warriors backs score 2.15/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.15/game).

Warriors can't afford to drop points in the top-4 race. Broncos have nothing to play for and remain without their halfback.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.