Round 24 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Bulldogs v Rabbitohs

SavvyPlays · Friday 14 August 2026 · Accor Stadium · 8:00pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Bulldogs n=20, Rabbitohs n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

MUST-WIN

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

19.8

Points For / G

27.7

22.1

Points Against / G

24.4

1,602m

Run Metres / G

1,570m

3.4

Tries / G

5.0

76.9%

Completion %

78.3%

4.9

Penalties Conceded / G

5.0

2.8

Six Agains / G

3.5

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

10-10-0#9

Season Record

#811-9-0

7-3-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games3-7-0 (A)

19.8Home · #14

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #726.2

17.2Home · #3

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1327.6

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

8-11-0 (42%)

2026 Season — All

9-10-0 (47%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-7-0 (30%)

3-6-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-3-0 (67%)

Current Streak

20-25-0 (44%)

2025-26 — All

23-20-0 (53%)

12-11-0 (52%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-14-0 (36%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

15-6-0 (71%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

7-12-0 (37%)

2026 Season — All

10-9-0 (53%)

2-8-0 (20%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

5-4-0 (56%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-4-0 (56%)

Current Streak

18-27-0 (40%)

2025-26 — All

16-27-0 (37%)

7-16-0 (30%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-14-0 (36%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

8-13-0 (38%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

7.0

1H Avg For

13.4

13.6

1H Avg Against

12.8

-6.6

1H Net

+0.6

75%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

10.4

2H Avg For

16.3

10.9

2H Avg Against

10.3

-0.4

2H Net

+6.0

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

145.4#11 Δ -5.9

Squad PCS

#7 Δ +2.5159.8

46.3#8 Δ +0.4

Spine PCS

#11 Δ +1.541.6

31.3#14 Δ -5.5

Forwards PCS

#10 Δ +1.035.2

65.0#8 Δ -1.7

Backs PCS

#3 Δ +0.677.3

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

8/20 (40%)

Scored first try — All games

12/20 (60%)

5/10 (50%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

10/20 (50%)

Conceded first try — All games

6/20 (30%)

4/10 (40%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

2 (H:2 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

9 (H:6 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

9 (H:4 A:5)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Bulldogs

Metric

Rabbitohs

0.549

Overall CI

0.546

0.549

Defensive CI

0.588

16.5

Margin SD

18.6

1.4

Disruption

5.2

88%

Best-17 %

93%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Bulldogs — 88% Best 17 (DS 1.4) — Squad avg ±/G: -0.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Connor Tracey	Fullback	17	-3.1
2	Jacob Kiraz	Wing	16	+2.6
3	Matt Burton	Centre	19	-0.8
4	Enari Tuala	Centre	16	+0.9
5	Jethro Rinakama	Wing	9	+5.6
6	Stephen Crichton	Five-Eighth	15	-4.9
7	Lachlan Galvin	Halfback	20	-2.3
8	Max King	Prop	16	-0.6
9	Bailey Hayward	Hooker	18	+1.4
10	Leo Thompson	Prop	15	-2.6
11	Viliame Kikau	Second Row	11	+1.4
12	Jacob Preston	Second Row	16	-3.1
13	Jaeman Salmon	Lock	20	-2.5
14	Kurt Mann	Interchange	16	-1.1
15	Josh Curran	Interchange	13	+3.1
16	Harry Hayes	Interchange	17	-1.9
17	Alekolasimi Jones	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sitili Tupouniua (new this round), Marcelo Montoya (4wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Rabbitohs — 93% Best 17 (DS 5.2) — Squad avg ±/G: +2.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Matthew Dufty	Fullback	10	+2.4
2	Alex Johnston	Wing	17	+6.4
3	Tallis Duncan	Centre	18	+4.4
4	Jack Wighton	Centre	14	+2.0
5	Campbell Graham	Wing	14	+2.1
6	Cody Walker	Five-Eighth	19	+3.9
7	Jayden Sullivan	Halfback	10	+2.8
8	Tevita Tatola	Prop	20	+1.8
9	Brandon Smith	Hooker	12	+2.2
10	Keaon Koloamatangi	Prop	20	+2.2
11	David Fifita	Second Row	12	+1.5
12	Adam Elliott	Second Row	5	-1.2
13	Cameron Murray	Lock	15	+6.5
14	Jye Gray	Interchange	14	+1.6
15	Lachlan Hubner	Interchange	19	+3.9
16	Sean Keppie	Interchange	13	-2.5
17	Euan Aitken	Interchange	14	+4.1

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jamie Humphreys (new this round). Long-term (2): Latrell Mitchell (13wk), Jai Arrow (9wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Bulldogs — Recent Form

12Bulldogs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Roosters	A	18-20	L	-2	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Storm	A	36-22	W	+14	-10.5	W	42.5	O
2026 R21	Warriors	H	18-6	W	+12	+3.5	W	41.5	U
2026 R20	Wests Tigers	H	32-0	W	+32	-5.5	W	44.5	U
2026 R19	Raiders	H	16-40	L	-24	-3.5	L	42.5	O

Rabbitohs — Recent Form

13Rabbitohs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Eels	H	28-24	W	+4	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Sharks	A	16-32	L	-16	+14.5	L	51.5	U
2026 R21	Storm	H	28-26	W	+2	+1.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R20	Raiders	A	24-34	L	-10	+0.5	L	49.5	O
2026 R19	Knights	H	26-24	W	+2	+2.5	W	48.0	O

Bulldogs — Try Scoring

14Bulldogs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Kiraz	Wing	9	1	2	2	1	4	2	5 / 4
J.Rinakama	Wing	7	2	—	2	1	2	2	4 / 3
L.Galvin	Halfback	7	1	1	1	1	2	3	2 / 5
S.Crichton	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	2	2	2	3 / 4
J.Curran	Interchange	6	—	2	1	1	1	3	3 / 3
M.Burton	Centre	6	—	—	0	0	4	2	4 / 2
J.Preston	Second Row	5	1	—	2	1	1	1	3 / 2
S.Tupouniua	Interchange	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	3 / 1
J.Salmon	Lock	3	1	—	2	1	0	0	0 / 3
E.Tuala	Centre	3	—	—	1	1	1	0	2 / 1

Rabbitohs — Try Scoring

15Rabbitohs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
A.Johnston	Wing	25	4	4	5	9	5	6	15 / 10
L.Mitchell	Centre	11	1	1	2	2	2	5	8 / 3
C.Graham	Wing	10	3	2	3	2	1	4	4 / 6
T.Duncan	Centre	8	—	2	0	2	3	3	2 / 6
C.Walker	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	1	2	3	2 / 5
J.Gray	Wing	4	1	—	1	2	0	1	3 / 1
E.Aitken	Second Row	4	—	—	1	1	1	1	2 / 2
E.Kosi	Wing	3	1	—	1	1	1	0	1 / 2
D.Fifita	Second Row	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	2 / 1
C.Murray	Lock	3	—	—	0	0	2	1	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Bulldogs by 4

Lean · MUST-WIN v MUST-WIN

Win

Bulldogs -3.5

predicted Bulldogs margin +4 vs line -3.5

ATS

—

projected total 43.6

Over / Under

Rabbitohs Backs

HIGH · 2.80/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Bulldogs (vs Rabbitohs defence)
1	Backs	1.25	1.60	1.43 HIGH
2	Spine	0.85	1.30	1.07 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.55	0.80	0.68 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.70	0.35	0.52 LOW
Attacking Rabbitohs (vs Bulldogs defence)
1	Backs	3.50	2.10	2.80 HIGH
2	Spine	0.60	0.85	0.72 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.75	0.65	0.70 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.20	0.30	0.25 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Rabbitohs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.80/game (Rabbitohs backs score 3.50/game; Bulldogs concede to the backs at 2.10/game).

A genuine finals eliminator — loser's season is effectively over. Humphreys' absence at halfback weakens the Rabbitohs' spine.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.