Round 24 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Eels v Cowboys

SavvyPlays · Saturday 15 August 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 5:30pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Eels n=20, Cowboys n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

19.4

Points For / G

23.1

28.6

Points Against / G

26.7

1,458m

Run Metres / G

1,620m

3.5

Tries / G

4.1

74.6%

Completion %

75.0%

4.2

Penalties Conceded / G

5.5

4.2

Six Agains / G

5.0

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

7-13-0#13

Season Record

#712-9-0

4-6-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games6-5-0 (A)

18.8Home · #15

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1022.2

26.6Home · #12

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #823.0

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

9-10-0 (47%)

2026 Season — All

11-9-0 (55%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-4-0 (60%)

Current Streak

20-23-0 (47%)

2025-26 — All

24-20-0 (55%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

9-12-0 (43%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-9-0 (59%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

6-13-0 (32%)

2026 Season — All

9-11-0 (45%)

2-8-0 (20%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-6-0 (40%)

Current Streak

13-30-0 (30%)

2025-26 — All

23-21-0 (52%)

5-17-0 (23%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-10-0 (55%)

8-13-0 (38%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

9.1

1H Avg For

13.6

12.4

1H Avg Against

12.9

-3.3

1H Net

+0.7

100%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

11.0

2H Avg For

10.6

18.4

2H Avg Against

13.1

-7.4

2H Net

-2.5

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

113.2#16 Δ +2.3

Squad PCS

#13 Δ -6.6134.5

30.9#15 Δ +0.3

Spine PCS

#10 Δ -0.946.1

22.3#17 Δ +1.5

Forwards PCS

#15 Δ -2.229.2

47.8#15 Δ +1.1

Backs PCS

#14 Δ -2.650.5

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

8/20 (40%)

Scored first try — All games

10/21 (48%)

5/10 (50%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

4/11 (36%)

10/20 (50%)

Conceded first try — All games

10/21 (48%)

3/10 (30%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/11 (55%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

2 (H:2 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:2 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

6 (H:3 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

5 (H:1 A:4)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

7 (H:3 A:4)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Eels

Metric

Cowboys

0.541

Overall CI

0.462

0.556

Defensive CI

0.459

17.6

Margin SD

23.1

9.1

Disruption

3.6

79%

Best-17 %

88%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Eels — 79% Best 17 (DS 9.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -8.1

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Apa Twidle	Fullback	—	—
2	Brian Kelly	Wing	18	-10.4
3	Will Penisini	Centre	7	-16.0
4	Jordan Samrani	Centre	12	-5.0
5	Josh Addo-Carr	Wing	19	-7.1
6	Ronald Volkman	Five-Eighth	15	-7.5
7	Mitchell Moses	Halfback	15	-11.4
8	Luca Moretti	Prop	14	-4.6
9	Tallyn Da Silva	Hooker	20	-3.6
10	Junior Paulo	Prop	13	-6.8
11	Jack Williams	Second Row	20	-9.1
12	Kitione Kautoga	Second Row	15	-9.0
13	Jack De Belin	Lock	17	-7.2
14	Dylan Walker	Interchange	19	-3.2
15	Saxon Pryke	Interchange	—	—
16	Teancum Brown	Interchange	—	—
17	Jezaiah Funa-Iuta	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Isaiah Iongi (new this round), Jonah Pezet (2wk absent), Sam Tuivaiti (new this round). Long-term (3): J'maine Hopgood (20wk), Bailey Simonsson (19wk), Charlie Guymer (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Cowboys — 88% Best 17 (DS 3.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	21	-4.2
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	17	-3.8
3	Zac Laybutt	Centre	15	-6.5
4	Tom Chester	Centre	20	-4.0
5	Murray Taulagi	Wing	16	-5.2
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	21	-3.6
7	Jaxon Purdue	Halfback	21	-4.1
8	Griffin Neame	Prop	20	+1.1
9	Reed Mahoney	Hooker	18	-1.1
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	20	-0.6
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	21	-3.6
12	Kai O'Donnell	Second Row	6	+3.7
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	18	+1.0
14	Soni Luke	Interchange	15	-1.8
15	Thomas Mikaele	Interchange	18	+0.6
16	John Bateman	Interchange	4	-2.0
17	Coen Hess	Interchange	21	-5.5

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Tom Dearden (4wk absent), Jeremiah Nanai (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Robert Derby (10wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Eels — Recent Form

12Eels — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Rabbitohs	A	24-28	L	-4	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Wests Tigers	A	16-13	W	+3	-6.5	L	49.5	U
2026 R21	Panthers	H	18-24	L	-6	+14.5	W	46.5	U
2026 R19	Roosters	A	12-28	L	-16	+10.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R18	Sea Eagles	H	23-14	W	+9	+10.5	W	49.5	U

Cowboys — Recent Form

13Cowboys — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Titans	A	30-8	W	+22	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Roosters	H	12-82	L	-70	+5.5	L	44.5	O
2026 R21	Broncos	H	18-10	W	+8	+4.5	W	47.5	U
2026 R20	Dolphins	A	16-36	L	-20	+3.5	L	50.0	O
2026 R19	Sea Eagles	A	19-18	W	+1	+6.5	W	48.0	U

Eels — Try Scoring

14Eels — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
T.Da Silva	Interchange	8	—	—	0	3	4	1	4 / 4
J.Addo-Carr	Wing	6	—	1	1	1	2	2	3 / 3
J.Samrani	Centre	5	2	1	1	1	0	3	1 / 4
R.Volkman	Five-Eighth	5	2	—	1	2	2	0	4 / 1
I.Iongi	Fullback	5	—	2	0	1	2	2	1 / 4
J.Papalii	Interchange	5	—	2	0	1	2	2	2 / 3
S.Russell	Centre	4	2	—	2	0	0	2	1 / 3
B.Kelly	Wing	4	1	—	4	0	0	0	1 / 3
K.Tuilagi	Second Row	4	—	—	1	2	1	0	2 / 2
J.Pezet	Halfback	3	1	2	1	0	0	2	2 / 1

Cowboys — Try Scoring

15Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
B.Burns	Wing	13	—	2	2	4	3	4	4 / 9
M.Taulagi	Wing	11	2	—	4	3	3	1	8 / 3
H.Luki	Second Row	10	1	4	2	2	0	6	5 / 5
S.Drinkwater	Fullback	9	2	—	2	5	0	2	2 / 7
J.Clifford	Five-Eighth	8	1	3	2	2	0	4	5 / 3
T.Chester	Centre	8	1	—	2	1	2	3	5 / 3
J.Purdue	Halfback	7	—	—	1	3	3	0	2 / 5
J.Nanai	Second Row	4	—	1	1	1	0	2	2 / 2
R.Mahoney	Hooker	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	3 / 0
T.Dearden	Halfback	2	1	—	1	0	0	1	1 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Eels by 2

Lean · PLAYING FOR PRIDE v MUST-WIN

Win

Eels +5.5

predicted Eels margin +2 vs line +5.5

ATS

Under 50.5

projected 44.4 · edge -6.1

Over / Under

Cowboys Backs

HIGH · 2.01/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Eels (vs Cowboys defence)
1	Backs	1.25	2.62	1.93 HIGH
2	Spine	0.85	1.24	1.04 MODERATE
3	Interchange	0.95	0.38	0.67 MODERATE
4	Forwards	0.45	0.57	0.51 LOW
Attacking Cowboys (vs Eels defence)
1	Backs	1.62	2.40	2.01 HIGH
2	Spine	1.57	1.15	1.36 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.81	1.00	0.90 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.10	0.35	0.22 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Cowboys Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.01/game (Cowboys backs score 1.62/game; Eels concede to the backs at 2.40/game).

Override driven by the Cowboys' historically poor 21% record at CommBank. Cowboys need wins but have never consistently won at this ground despite 4 consecutive H2H losses to the Eels.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.