Round 24 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Knights v Titans

SavvyPlays · Sunday 16 August 2026 · McDonald Jones Stadium · 2:00pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Knights n=21, Titans n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Knights

Metric

Titans

TOP 4 BATTLE

Motivation

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Wins to Finals

25.8

Points For / G

19.4

22.6

Points Against / G

26.6

1,582m

Run Metres / G

1,542m

4.6

Tries / G

3.4

75.5%

Completion %

74.6%

4.8

Penalties Conceded / G

3.7

3.1

Six Agains / G

3.8

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Knights

Metric

Titans

13-8-0#6

Season Record

#156-14-0

7-3-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games3-8-0 (A)

22.3Home · #12

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #922.4

23.3Home · #10

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #925.0

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Knights

Metric

Titans

13-7-0 (65%)

2026 Season — All

11-8-0 (58%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-3-0 (73%)

8-2-0 (80%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-5-0 (38%)

Current Streak

21-23-0 (48%)

2025-26 — All

21-22-0 (49%)

10-12-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-11-0 (52%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

9-11-0 (45%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Knights

Metric

Titans

9-11-0 (45%)

2026 Season — All

6-13-0 (32%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-6-0 (46%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

1-7-0 (12%)

Current Streak

17-27-0 (39%)

2025-26 — All

18-25-0 (42%)

9-13-0 (41%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

13-10-0 (57%)

8-14-0 (36%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-15-0 (25%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Knights

Metric

Titans

15.3

1H Avg For

7.1

11.6

1H Avg Against

12.6

+3.7

1H Net

-5.4

88%

1H Win → Match Win

33%

12.7

2H Avg For

11.9

14.0

2H Avg Against

12.9

-1.3

2H Net

-1.0

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Knights

Metric

Titans

171.2#6 Δ +9.1

Squad PCS

#12 Δ +4.5142.0

47.0#6 Δ +1.8

Spine PCS

#12 Δ +1.140.6

36.8#7 Δ +2.9

Forwards PCS

#13 Δ +1.433.9

80.3#2 Δ +4.4

Backs PCS

#11 Δ +3.257.3

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Knights

Metric

Titans

12/21 (57%)

Scored first try — All games

3/20 (15%)

6/10 (60%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

2/11 (18%)

9/21 (43%)

Conceded first try — All games

16/20 (80%)

4/10 (40%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

8/11 (73%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

6 (H:3 A:3)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:0 A:2)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:2 A:1)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

9 (H:3 A:6)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Knights

Metric

Titans

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Knights

Metric

Titans

0.551

Overall CI

0.550

0.558

Defensive CI

0.598

16.6

Margin SD

18.6

3.8

Disruption

0.6

81%

Best-17 %

100%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Knights — 81% Best 17 (DS 3.8) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kalyn Ponga	Fullback	12	+9.7
2	Dominic Young	Wing	21	+3.1
3	Dane Gagai	Centre	20	+3.4
4	Bradman Best	Centre	12	+6.9
5	Greg Marzhew	Wing	20	+4.3
6	Fletcher Sharpe	Five-Eighth	19	+3.7
7	Sandon Smith	Halfback	14	+0.6
8	Cody Hopwood	Prop	2	+11.0
9	Phoenix Crossland	Hooker	20	+2.1
10	Trey Mooney	Prop	19	+3.6
11	Jermaine McEwen	Second Row	17	+2.0
12	Francis Manuleleua	Second Row	8	+0.4
13	Mat Croker	Lock	21	+3.7
14	Harrison Graham	Interchange	14	+1.6
15	Tyson Frizell	Interchange	19	+2.3
16	Lachlan Crouch	Interchange	—	—
17	Thomas Cant	Interchange	12	+1.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Dylan Brown (3wk absent), Dylan Lucas (3wk absent), Brodie Jones (new this round). Long-term (1): Jacob Saifiti (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Titans — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -7.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Keano Kini	Fullback	20	-7.5
2	Dean Ieremia	Wing	5	-9.6
3	Jojo Fifita	Centre	18	-7.4
4	AJ Brimson	Centre	18	-6.7
5	Phillip Sami	Wing	20	-7.2
6	Jayden Campbell	Five-Eighth	18	-5.6
7	Lachlan Ilias	Halfback	9	-7.6
8	Moeaki Fotuaika	Prop	20	-8.3
9	Oliver Pascoe	Hooker	12	-8.2
10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	Prop	17	-6.1
11	Josh Patston	Second Row	—	—
12	Beau Fermor	Second Row	20	-7.5
13	Chris Randall	Lock	17	-4.2
14	Kurtis Morrin	Interchange	18	-0.4
15	Klese Haas	Interchange	19	-2.7
16	Cooper Bai	Interchange	19	-2.4
17	Bodhi Sharpley	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (2): Jaimin Jolliffe (20wk), Max Feagai (9wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Knights — Recent Form

12Knights — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Raiders	A	30-24	W	+6	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Broncos	A	30-6	W	+24	+5.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R21	Roosters	H	22-23	L	-1	+8.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R20	Sharks	A	18-20	L	-2	+8.5	W	44.0	U
2026 R19	Rabbitohs	A	24-26	L	-2	-2.5	L	48.0	O

Titans — Recent Form

13Titans — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Cowboys	H	8-30	L	-22	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Warriors	H	6-42	L	-36	+4.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R21	Dragons	A	38-18	W	+20	+1.5	W	47.5	O
2026 R20	Sea Eagles	H	38-32	W	+6	+4.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R19	Storm	A	18-22	L	-4	+9.5	W	45.5	U

Knights — Try Scoring

14Knights — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
G.Marzhew	Wing	19	2	2	3	7	3	6	8 / 11
D.Young	Wing	19	1	4	5	3	5	6	4 / 15
F.Sharpe	Five-Eighth	10	4	1	6	2	0	2	4 / 6
D.Lucas	Second Row	10	2	—	3	5	2	0	6 / 4
F.Hunt	Centre	8	1	—	2	4	0	2	3 / 5
T.Mooney	Prop	5	1	3	2	0	0	3	3 / 2
K.Ponga	Fullback	5	1	—	1	2	0	2	0 / 5
B.Best	Centre	4	—	2	0	1	1	2	3 / 1
D.Gagai	Centre	3	—	—	0	0	2	1	0 / 3
P.Crossland	Hooker	3	—	—	0	1	2	0	2 / 1

Titans — Try Scoring

15Titans — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
P.Sami	Wing	14	—	1	2	3	3	6	8 / 6
J.Campbell	Five-Eighth	9	—	—	1	2	4	2	0 / 9
A.Hau	Interchange	7	1	1	1	2	1	3	4 / 3
J.Fifita	Centre	7	1	1	0	3	1	3	5 / 2
K.Morrin	Interchange	6	—	1	0	3	2	1	2 / 4
O.Pascoe	Interchange	4	1	—	2	1	1	0	3 / 1
S.Faeamani	Interchange	4	—	—	1	0	1	2	0 / 4
A.Brimson	Halfback	3	—	1	1	1	0	1	1 / 2
K.Kini	Fullback	3	—	2	0	0	0	3	0 / 3
J.De Groot	Centre	2	—	—	1	1	0	0	0 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Knights by 8

Lean · TOP 4 BATTLE v WOODEN SPOON RACE

Win

Titans +13.5

predicted Knights margin +8 vs line -13.5

ATS

Under 50.5

projected 46.0 · edge -4.5

Over / Under

Knights Backs

HIGH · 2.46/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Knights (vs Titans defence)
1	Backs	2.52	2.40	2.46 HIGH
2	Spine	1.10	1.30	1.20 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.90	0.85	0.88 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.10	0.20	0.15 LOW
Attacking Titans (vs Knights defence)
1	Backs	1.20	1.71	1.46 HIGH
2	Spine	0.80	1.29	1.04 MODERATE
3	Interchange	1.15	0.24	0.69 MODERATE
4	Forwards	0.25	0.81	0.53 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Knights Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.46/game (Knights backs score 2.52/game; Titans concede to the backs at 2.40/game).

Knights need wins to secure top-6 but their home record is a liability. Titans eliminated but at full strength.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.