Round 24 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Panthers v Roosters

SavvyPlays · Thursday 13 August 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 7:50pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Panthers n=20, Roosters n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

TOP 4 BATTLE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

29.6

Points For / G

27.6

15.1

Points Against / G

19.7

1,710m

Run Metres / G

1,663m

5.1

Tries / G

5.0

78.1%

Completion %

74.8%

3.6

Penalties Conceded / G

5.2

4.8

Six Agains / G

3.3

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

15-5-0#1

Season Record

#115-5-0

8-1-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games7-3-0 (A)

31.1Home · #2

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #131.6

13.6Home · #1

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #421.4

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

11-8-0 (58%)

2026 Season — All

9-10-0 (47%)

6-3-0 (67%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

Current Streak

25-21-0 (54%)

2025-26 — All

22-22-0 (50%)

12-9-0 (57%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-11-0 (52%)

13-12-0 (52%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

10-11-0 (48%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

7-12-0 (37%)

2026 Season — All

9-10-0 (47%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-4-0 (60%)

3-7-0 (30%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

Current Streak

18-28-0 (39%)

2025-26 — All

24-20-0 (55%)

8-13-0 (38%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-12-0 (48%)

10-15-0 (40%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-8-0 (62%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

19.7

1H Avg For

12.0

4.7

1H Avg Against

11.3

+15.0

1H Net

+0.7

92%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

12.7

2H Avg For

13.7

8.4

2H Avg Against

10.6

+4.4

2H Net

+3.1

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

180.3#2 Δ -9.6

Squad PCS

#3 Δ -3.5180.1

50.1#4 Δ -2.9

Spine PCS

#5 Δ -3.449.8

38.0#5 Δ -1.8

Forwards PCS

#8 Δ +0.736.2

75.7#5 Δ -3.7

Backs PCS

#4 Δ -0.375.8

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

12/20 (60%)

Scored first try — All games

13/20 (65%)

6/9 (67%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

8/20 (40%)

Conceded first try — All games

6/20 (30%)

3/9 (33%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

4 (H:1 A:3)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

5 (H:2 A:3)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:3 A:0)

5 (H:3 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

5 (H:3 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

4 (H:2 A:2)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Panthers

Metric

Roosters

0.543

Overall CI

0.490

0.630

Defensive CI

0.558

21.3

Margin SD

25.0

4.7

Disruption

5.5

87%

Best-17 %

87%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Panthers — 87% Best 17 (DS 4.7) — Squad avg ±/G: +10.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Jaxen Edgar	Fullback	2	+4.0
2	Thomas Jenkins	Wing	19	+14.3
3	Paul Alamoti	Centre	20	+15.6
4	Izack Tago	Centre	13	+5.2
5	Brian To'o	Wing	18	+16.2
6	Jack Cogger	Five-Eighth	14	+8.0
7	Nathan Cleary	Halfback	17	+15.1
8	Moses Leota	Prop	20	+7.0
9	Freddy Lussick	Hooker	17	+8.5
10	Liam Henry	Prop	11	+12.2
11	Isaiah Papali'i	Second Row	19	+12.7
12	Liam Martin	Second Row	12	+12.4
13	Lindsay Smith	Lock	20	+9.2
14	Billy Scott	Interchange	—	—
15	Scott Sorensen	Interchange	20	+7.5
16	Luron Patea	Interchange	3	+5.7
17	Billy Phillips	Interchange	17	+4.2

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Isaah Yeo (new this round), Casey McLean (2wk absent). Long-term (2): Mitch Kenny (17wk), Luke Garner (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Roosters — 87% Best 17 (DS 5.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +7.1

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
2	Billy Smith	Wing	11	+0.0
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	16	+13.9
4	Robert Toia	Centre	17	+12.4
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	15	+11.4
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	20	+7.8
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	18	+9.9
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	20	+5.7
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	16	+11.7
10	Spencer Leniu	Prop	16	+1.9
11	Salesi Foketi	Second Row	17	+0.3
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	20	+8.3
13	Victor Radley	Lock	14	+9.3
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	19	+3.6
15	Lindsay Collins	Interchange	14	-1.1
16	Nat Butcher	Interchange	18	+8.1
17	Egan Butcher	Interchange	13	+1.8
18	Cody Ramsey	Fullback	7	-0.6

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: James Tedesco (new this round), Daniel Tupou (3wk absent). Long-term (2): Angus Crichton (8wk), Blake Steep (15wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Panthers — Recent Form

12Panthers — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Warriors	A	12-28	L	-16	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Raiders	H	42-18	W	+24	-9.5	W	44.5	O
2026 R21	Eels	A	24-18	W	+6	-14.5	L	46.5	U
2026 R20	Broncos	H	12-14	L	-2	-12.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R18	Rabbitohs	H	36-14	W	+22	-5.5	W	44.5	O

Roosters — Recent Form

13Roosters — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R23	Bulldogs	H	20-18	W	+2	—	—	—	—
2026 R22	Cowboys	A	82-12	W	+70	-5.5	W	44.5	O
2026 R21	Knights	A	23-22	W	+1	-8.5	L	45.5	U
2026 R20	Storm	H	14-6	W	+8	-11.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R19	Eels	H	28-12	W	+16	-10.5	W	48.5	U

Panthers — Try Scoring

14Panthers — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
T.Jenkins	Wing	28	1	4	4	10	6	8	13 / 15
B.To'o	Wing	11	1	—	2	4	2	3	6 / 5
D.Edwards	Fullback	10	3	1	5	3	0	2	2 / 8
C.McLean	Centre	7	2	—	3	4	0	0	4 / 3
N.Cleary	Halfback	6	—	—	1	3	1	1	2 / 4
L.Martin	Second Row	5	2	—	4	0	1	0	3 / 2
B.Talagi	Interchange	5	1	—	5	0	0	0	2 / 3
P.Alamoti	Centre	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	3 / 1
F.Lussick	Hooker	4	—	1	2	0	1	1	1 / 3
L.Smith	Prop	3	—	1	0	1	0	2	1 / 2

Roosters — Try Scoring

15Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
M.Nawaqanitawase	Wing	15	1	3	4	3	3	5	5 / 10
D.Tupou	Wing	12	—	2	1	2	2	7	7 / 5
J.Tedesco	Fullback	11	2	1	3	2	4	2	4 / 7
B.Smith	Wing	10	2	—	2	3	2	3	5 / 5
R.Toia	Centre	10	2	1	2	4	2	2	5 / 5
S.Walker	Halfback	9	1	1	3	3	1	2	2 / 7
H.Savala	Centre	8	—	1	2	2	2	2	5 / 3
D.Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	4	2	—	2	0	1	1	2 / 2
S.Wong	Second Row	4	2	—	3	1	0	0	3 / 1
R.Robson	Hooker	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Panthers by 4

Lean · TOP 4 BATTLE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Roosters +4.5

predicted Panthers margin +4 vs line -4.5

ATS

Over 42.5

projected 46.5 · edge +4.0

Over / Under

Panthers Backs

HIGH · 2.12/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Panthers (vs Roosters defence)
1	Backs	2.65	1.60	2.12 HIGH
2	Spine	1.15	0.95	1.05 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.65	0.60	0.62 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.65	0.25	0.45 LOW
Attacking Roosters (vs Panthers defence)
1	Backs	2.75	1.15	1.95 HIGH
2	Spine	1.45	0.70	1.07 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.50	0.60	0.55 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.25	0.20	0.23 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Panthers Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.12/game (Panthers backs score 2.65/game; Roosters concede to the backs at 1.60/game).

Both teams locked for finals, jockeying for top-4 seeding. Yeo's absence at lock is offset by Tedesco's at fullback.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.