Sharks v Raiders
SavvyPlays · Saturday 15 August 2026 · Ocean Protect Stadium · 3:00pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Sharks n=20, Raiders n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Sharks — 88% Best 17 (DS 4.6) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.8
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | Fullback | 20 | +8.4 |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | Wing | 13 | +8.5 |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | Centre | 6 | +1.3 |
| 4 | KL Iro | Centre | 17 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | Wing | 11 | +14.3 |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | Five-Eighth | 20 | +8.4 |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | Halfback | 16 | +9.9 |
| 8 | Oregon Kaufusi | Prop | 16 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | Hooker | 15 | +7.6 |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | Prop | 18 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | Second Row | 15 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | Second Row | 18 | +7.4 |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | Lock | 13 | +5.3 |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | Interchange | 10 | +9.1 |
| 15 | Billy Burns | Interchange | 19 | +10.1 |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | Interchange | 17 | +3.1 |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | Interchange | 19 | +2.3 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jesse Ramien (new this round), Addin Fonua-Blake (new this round). Long-term (1): Toby Rudolf (9wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Raiders — 82% Best 17 (DS 4.7) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.3
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 21 | -3.1 |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | Wing | 12 | -1.2 |
| 3 | Savelio Tamale | Centre | 13 | -5.6 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 16 | -0.9 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 16 | -2.8 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 18 | -4.9 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 21 | -2.7 |
| 8 | Ata Mariota | Prop | 20 | -3.3 |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | Hooker | 12 | +2.5 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 21 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | Second Row | 19 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | Second Row | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | Lock | 19 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Tom Starling | Interchange | 21 | -2.6 |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | Interchange | 10 | -1.6 |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | Interchange | 13 | +0.2 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Corey Horsburgh (new this round), Hudson Young (4wk absent), Simi Sasagi (new this round). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Sharks — Recent Form
12Sharks — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R23 | Dragons | A | 16-24 | L | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 R22 | Rabbitohs | H | 32-16 | W | +16 | -14.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Sea Eagles | A | 48-12 | W | +36 | -3.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Knights | H | 20-18 | W | +2 | -8.5 | L | 44.0 | U |
| 2026 R19 | Dolphins | A | 66-0 | W | +66 | +1.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
Raiders — Recent Form
13Raiders — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R23 | Knights | H | 24-30 | L | -6 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 R22 | Panthers | A | 18-42 | L | -24 | +9.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Wests Tigers | H | 56-10 | W | +46 | -15.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Rabbitohs | H | 34-24 | W | +10 | -0.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 2026 R19 | Bulldogs | A | 40-16 | W | +24 | +3.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
Sharks — Try Scoring
14Sharks — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KL.Iro | Centre | 12 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 / 8 |
| S.Katoa | Wing | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 / 9 |
| R.Mulitalo | Wing | 10 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 / 4 |
| W.Kennedy | Fullback | 9 | 1 | — | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 / 3 |
| B.Trindall | Five-Eighth | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 / 1 |
| T.Wilton | Second Row | 7 | 3 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 / 2 |
| N.Hynes | Halfback | 7 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 / 3 |
| J.Ramien | Centre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 4 |
| S.Talakai | Interchange | 5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 3 |
| B.Burns | Interchange | 5 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 2 |
Raiders — Try Scoring
15Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Weekes | Fullback | 11 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 / 5 |
| X.Savage | Wing | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 / 4 |
| S.Sasagi | Centre | 7 | 3 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 4 |
| S.Tamale | Interchange | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 / 3 |
| M.Timoko | Centre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 4 |
| E.Strange | Five-Eighth | 6 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 3 |
| J.Stuart | Wing | 5 | 2 | — | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 / 0 |
| H.Young | Second Row | 5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 2 |
| S.Kris | Centre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| Z.Hosking | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Sharks (vs Raiders defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.05 | 2.14 | 2.10 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.32 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.70 | 0.86 | 0.78 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.90 | 0.24 | 0.57 LOW |
| Attacking Raiders (vs Sharks defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.79 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.05 | 0.90 | 0.97 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.68 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.67 | 0.10 | 0.38 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Sharks Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.10/game (Sharks backs score 2.05/game; Raiders concede to the backs at 2.14/game).
Sharks chasing top-4 but lose two key players. R23's Dragons upset is a warning — eliminated teams are dangerous.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
SavvyPlays — NRL Analytics & Tipping · © 2026