Wests Tigers v Dragons
SavvyPlays · Sunday 16 August 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 4:05pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Wests Tigers n=20, Dragons n=20). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Wests Tigers — 80% Best 17 (DS 5.5) — Squad avg ±/G: -8.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | Fullback | 17 | -7.1 |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | Wing | 2 | -24.5 |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | Centre | — | — |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | Centre | 7 | -13.1 |
| 5 | Sunia Turuva | Wing | 20 | -10.2 |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | Five-Eighth | 16 | -14.6 |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | Halfback | 13 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Terrell May | Prop | 19 | -12.8 |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | Hooker | 15 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | Prop | 20 | -7.4 |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | Second Row | 12 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | Second Row | 6 | -6.2 |
| 13 | Alex Twal | Lock | 15 | -3.9 |
| 14 | Heath Mason | Interchange | 3 | -10.7 |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | Interchange | 19 | -5.5 |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | Interchange | 19 | -7.8 |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | Interchange | 7 | -3.4 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Latu Fainu (4wk absent), Heamasi Makasini (2wk absent), Starford To'a (2wk absent). Long-term (2): Kai Pearce-Paul (9wk), Taylan May (7wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Dragons — 93% Best 17 (DS 2.7) — Squad avg ±/G: -10.8
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | Fullback | 17 | -9.4 |
| 2 | Setu Tu | Wing | 18 | -12.5 |
| 3 | Moses Suli | Centre | 10 | -16.5 |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | Centre | 20 | -13.2 |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | Wing | 11 | -12.2 |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | Five-Eighth | 4 | -8.5 |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | Halfback | 17 | -8.4 |
| 8 | Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | Prop | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | Hooker | 20 | -10.1 |
| 10 | Emre Guler | Prop | 15 | -7.3 |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | Second Row | 12 | -8.7 |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | Second Row | 20 | -12.1 |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | Lock | 16 | -10.7 |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | Interchange | 11 | -2.7 |
| 15 | Toby Couchman | Interchange | 18 | -9.7 |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | Interchange | — | — |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Luciano Leilua (new this round). Long-term (2): Jaydn Su'A (10wk), Hame Sele (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Wests Tigers — Recent Form
12Wests Tigers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R22 | Eels | H | 13-16 | L | -3 | +6.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Raiders | A | 10-56 | L | -46 | +15.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Bulldogs | A | 0-32 | L | -32 | +5.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 2026 R19 | Warriors | H | 6-32 | L | -26 | +8.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R18 | Dragons | A | 10-24 | L | -14 | -3.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
Dragons — Recent Form
13Dragons — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R23 | Sharks | H | 24-16 | W | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 R22 | Dolphins | H | 22-28 | L | -6 | +15.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Titans | H | 18-38 | L | -20 | -1.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Warriors | A | 12-20 | L | -8 | +16.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R18 | Wests Tigers | H | 24-10 | W | +14 | +3.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
Wests Tigers — Try Scoring
14Wests Tigers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Doueihi | Halfback | 8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 / 4 |
| L.Laulili'i | Interchange | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 / 1 |
| Ta.May | Centre | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 3 |
| J.Bula | Fullback | 6 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Skelton | Wing | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 / 0 |
| S.Turuva | Wing | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| K.Pearce-Paul | Second Row | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| F.Tavana | Wing | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
| J.Luai | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 0 |
| Sa.Fainu | Second Row | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 / 1 |
Dragons — Try Scoring
15Dragons — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Tu | Interchange | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 / 4 |
| T.Sloan | Wing | 9 | 3 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 / 4 |
| V.Holmes | Centre | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 / 4 |
| H.Stewart | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 / 2 |
| C.Tuipulotu | Wing | 3 | — | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| C.Gutherson | Fullback | 3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| M.Feagai | Wing | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
| J.Liddle | Hooker | 2 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 0 |
| D.Cook | Interchange | 2 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 2 |
| M.Suli | Centre | 2 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Wests Tigers (vs Dragons defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.00 | 2.80 | 1.90 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.05 | 1.30 | 1.18 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.68 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.60 | 0.30 | 0.45 LOW |
| Attacking Dragons (vs Wests Tigers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.30 | 2.55 | 1.92 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.30 | 1.20 | 0.75 MODERATE |
| 3 | Interchange | 0.80 | 0.55 | 0.68 MODERATE |
| 4 | Forwards | 0.35 | 0.90 | 0.62 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Dragons Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 1.92/game (Dragons backs score 1.30/game; Wests Tigers concede to the backs at 2.55/game).
Override driven by CI/DS edge and Dragons' form after the Sharks upset. The model and PCS favour the Tigers but consistency and disruption both point to the Dragons.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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