Dragons v Bulldogs
SavvyPlays · Saturday 22 August 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 7:35pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Dragons n=21, Bulldogs n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Dragons — 87% Best 17 (DS 6.5) — Squad avg ±/G: -9.5
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Atkinson | Fullback | 18 | -11.6 |
| 2 | Mathew Feagai | Wing | 14 | -10.5 |
| 3 | Moses Suli | Centre | 11 | -14.8 |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | Centre | 21 | -12.5 |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | Wing | 12 | -11.0 |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | Five-Eighth | 5 | -6.4 |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | Halfback | 18 | -7.8 |
| 8 | Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | Prop | — | — |
| 9 | Jacob Liddle | Hooker | 12 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Emre Guler | Prop | 16 | -7.5 |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | Second Row | 13 | -7.8 |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | Second Row | 21 | -11.4 |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | Lock | 17 | -10.8 |
| 14 | Damien Cook | Interchange | 21 | -9.8 |
| 15 | Toby Couchman | Interchange | 19 | -8.8 |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Webster | Interchange | — | — |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Clinton Gutherson (new this round), Christian Tuipulotu (new this round). Long-term (2): Jaydn Su'A (11wk), Hame Sele (7wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Bulldogs — 94% Best 17 (DS 0.8) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.2
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | Fullback | 18 | -3.8 |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | Wing | 17 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Matt Burton | Centre | 20 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Bronson Xerri | Centre | 13 | -6.2 |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | Wing | 17 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | Five-Eighth | 16 | -5.6 |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | Halfback | 21 | -3.0 |
| 8 | Max King | Prop | 17 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | Hooker | 19 | +0.5 |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | Prop | 16 | -2.7 |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | Second Row | 12 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | Second Row | 17 | -3.8 |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | Lock | 21 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | Interchange | 17 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Josh Curran | Interchange | 14 | +2.3 |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | Interchange | 18 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | Interchange | — | — |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sitili Tupouniua (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Marcelo Montoya (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Dragons — Recent Form
12Dragons — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R24 | Wests Tigers | A | 24-22 | W | +2 | +1.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Sharks | H | 24-16 | W | +8 | +17.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Dolphins | H | 22-28 | L | -6 | +15.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Titans | H | 18-38 | L | -20 | -1.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Warriors | A | 12-20 | L | -8 | +16.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
Bulldogs — Recent Form
13Bulldogs — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R24 | Rabbitohs | H | 6-22 | L | -16 | -4.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Roosters | A | 18-20 | L | -2 | +5.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Storm | A | 36-22 | W | +14 | -10.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Warriors | H | 18-6 | W | +12 | +3.5 | W | 41.5 | U |
| 2026 R20 | Wests Tigers | H | 32-0 | W | +32 | -5.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
Dragons — Try Scoring
14Dragons — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Sloan | Wing | 10 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 / 5 |
| S.Tu | Interchange | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 / 4 |
| V.Holmes | Centre | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 / 4 |
| H.Stewart | Second Row | 5 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| C.Tuipulotu | Wing | 3 | — | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| C.Gutherson | Fullback | 3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| M.Feagai | Fullback | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
| M.Suli | Centre | 3 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
| L.Leilua | Interchange | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 / 1 |
| D.Cook | Interchange | 2 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 2 |
Bulldogs — Try Scoring
15Bulldogs — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Kiraz | Wing | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 / 4 |
| J.Rinakama | Wing | 7 | 2 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 3 |
| S.Crichton | Five-Eighth | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 / 4 |
| L.Galvin | Halfback | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 / 5 |
| J.Curran | Interchange | 6 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 3 |
| M.Burton | Centre | 6 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Preston | Second Row | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 2 |
| S.Tupouniua | Interchange | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| E.Tuala | Centre | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Salmon | Lock | 3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 3 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Dragons (vs Bulldogs defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.24 | 2.14 | 1.69 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.48 | 0.86 | 0.67 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.52 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.50 LOW |
| Attacking Bulldogs (vs Dragons defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.24 | 2.81 | 2.02 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.81 | 1.24 | 1.02 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.52 | 0.71 | 0.62 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.48 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Bulldogs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.02/game (Bulldogs backs score 1.24/game; Dragons concede to the backs at 2.81/game).
The Bulldogs' 5-0 H2H dominance overrides the Dragons' recent form. Gutherson's absence at fullback further weakens a side that was already the NRL's worst.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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