Round 25 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Rabbitohs v Warriors

SavvyPlays · Saturday 22 August 2026 · Accor Stadium · 5:30pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Rabbitohs n=21, Warriors n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

MUST-WIN

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

27.4

Points For / G

28.9

23.5

Points Against / G

15.7

1,587m

Run Metres / G

1,674m

5.0

Tries / G

5.0

78.5%

Completion %

80.4%

5.0

Penalties Conceded / G

4.4

3.5

Six Agains / G

4.6

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

12-9-0#7

Season Record

#215-6-0

8-2-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games7-4-0 (A)

29.2Home · #2

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #229.6

21.2Home · #6

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #115.4

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

10-11-0 (48%)

2026 Season — All

13-8-0 (62%)

6-4-0 (60%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-3-0 (73%)

4-7-0 (36%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

Current Streak

24-21-0 (53%)

2025-26 — All

24-20-2 (55%)

15-7-0 (68%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

13-9-1 (59%)

9-14-0 (39%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-11-1 (50%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

11-10-0 (52%)

2026 Season — All

6-15-0 (29%)

6-4-0 (60%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-8-0 (27%)

5-6-0 (46%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-7-0 (30%)

Current Streak

17-28-0 (38%)

2025-26 — All

17-29-0 (37%)

9-13-0 (41%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-13-0 (43%)

8-15-0 (35%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-16-0 (30%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

13.4

1H Avg For

14.1

12.8

1H Avg Against

9.7

+0.6

1H Net

+4.4

100%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

16.3

2H Avg For

15.4

10.3

2H Avg Against

7.7

+6.0

2H Net

+7.7

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

161.5#7 Δ +1.6

Squad PCS

#2 Δ +2.0180.7

42.2#11 Δ +0.6

Spine PCS

#8 Δ +1.147.2

36.5#8 Δ +1.3

Forwards PCS

#2 Δ +1.241.5

74.6#4 Δ -2.7

Backs PCS

#6 Δ +0.670.8

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

13/21 (62%)

Scored first try — All games

12/21 (57%)

7/10 (70%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

4/11 (36%)

6/21 (29%)

Conceded first try — All games

7/21 (33%)

1/10 (10%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/11 (55%)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

9 (H:6 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

8 (H:6 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Warriors

0.544

Overall CI

0.586

0.577

Defensive CI

0.647

18.3

Margin SD

16.7

3.5

Disruption

11.4

93%

Best-17 %

79%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Rabbitohs — 93% Best 17 (DS 3.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Matthew Dufty	Fullback	11	+3.6
2	Alex Johnston	Wing	18	+6.9
3	Tallis Duncan	Centre	19	+5.1
4	Jack Wighton	Centre	15	+2.9
5	Campbell Graham	Wing	15	+3.1
6	Cody Walker	Five-Eighth	20	+4.5
7	Jayden Sullivan	Halfback	11	+4.0
8	Tevita Tatola	Prop	21	+2.3
9	Brandon Smith	Hooker	13	+2.3
10	Keaon Koloamatangi	Prop	21	+2.7
11	David Fifita	Second Row	13	+2.6
12	Euan Aitken	Second Row	15	+4.4
13	Cameron Murray	Lock	16	+7.1
14	Jye Gray	Interchange	14	+1.6
15	Lachlan Hubner	Interchange	20	+3.6
16	Sean Keppie	Interchange	14	-1.0
17	Liam Le Blanc	Interchange	6	+1.0

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jamie Humphreys (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Jai Arrow (10wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Warriors — 79% Best 17 (DS 11.4) — Squad avg ±/G: +12.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Taine Tuaupiki	Fullback	18	+10.6
2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	20	+12.2
3	Ali Leiataua	Centre	17	+16.0
4	Leka Halasima	Centre	16	+9.2
5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira	Wing	13	+12.2
6	Luke Hanson	Five-Eighth	1	+26.0
7	Chanel Harris-Tavita	Halfback	18	+13.8
8	James Fisher-Harris	Prop	18	+8.6
9	Wayde Egan	Hooker	21	+11.1
10	Mitchell Barnett	Prop	12	+7.0
11	Kurt Capewell	Second Row	11	+15.5
12	Jacob Laban	Second Row	20	+10.5
13	Erin Clark	Lock	21	+8.8
14	Sam Healey	Interchange	18	+3.3
15	Tanner Stowers-Smith	Interchange	16	+7.5
16	Demitric Vaimauga	Interchange	17	+7.5
17	Eddie Ieremia-Toeava	Interchange	9	+9.6

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (new this round), Luke Metcalf (new this round), Te Maire Martin (3wk absent). Long-term (3): Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (13wk), Jackson Ford (9wk), Marata Niukore (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Rabbitohs — Recent Form

12Rabbitohs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Bulldogs	A	22-6	W	+16	+4.5	W	43.5	U
2026 R23	Eels	H	28-24	W	+4	-10.5	L	46.0	O
2026 R22	Sharks	A	16-32	L	-16	+14.5	L	51.5	U
2026 R21	Storm	H	28-26	W	+2	+1.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R20	Raiders	A	24-34	L	-10	+0.5	L	49.5	O

Warriors — Recent Form

13Warriors — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Broncos	A	40-6	W	+34	-7.5	W	46.5	U
2026 R23	Panthers	H	28-12	W	+16	+3.5	W	41.0	U
2026 R22	Titans	A	42-6	W	+36	-4.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R21	Bulldogs	A	6-18	L	-12	-3.5	L	41.5	U
2026 R20	Dragons	H	20-12	W	+8	-16.5	L	46.5	U

Rabbitohs — Try Scoring

14Rabbitohs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
A.Johnston	Wing	26	4	4	5	10	5	6	15 / 11
C.Graham	Wing	11	3	2	3	2	2	4	4 / 7
L.Mitchell	Centre	11	1	1	2	2	2	5	8 / 3
T.Duncan	Centre	9	—	2	0	2	4	3	2 / 7
C.Walker	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	1	2	3	2 / 5
D.Fifita	Second Row	4	1	—	0	3	1	0	2 / 2
J.Gray	Interchange	4	1	—	1	2	0	1	3 / 1
E.Aitken	Interchange	4	—	—	1	1	1	1	2 / 2
E.Kosi	Interchange	3	1	—	1	1	1	0	1 / 2
M.Dufty	Fullback	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

Warriors — Try Scoring

15Warriors — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
D.Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	19	3	5	5	6	5	3	8 / 11
A.Khan-Pereira	Wing	14	2	—	7	3	2	2	5 / 9
C.Nicoll-Klokstad	Fullback	10	2	1	3	1	3	3	8 / 2
C.Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	7	—	1	2	3	0	2	4 / 3
L.Halasima	Centre	7	—	1	1	2	2	2	3 / 4
T.Martin	Halfback	6	—	2	1	1	2	2	2 / 4
E.Clark	Lock	5	1	1	2	1	1	1	3 / 2
J.Laban	Second Row	5	1	—	4	1	0	0	1 / 4
A.Leiataua	Centre	5	1	—	2	0	3	0	2 / 3
J.Ford	Prop	4	—	—	0	1	1	2	1 / 3

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Rabbitohs by 10

Strong · MUST-WIN v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Rabbitohs +4.5

predicted Rabbitohs margin +10 vs line +4.5

ATS

Over 45.5

projected 46.2 · edge +0.7

Over / Under

Rabbitohs Backs

HIGH · 2.21/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Rabbitohs (vs Warriors defence)
1	Backs	3.14	1.29	2.21 HIGH
2	Spine	0.62	0.76	0.69 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.57	0.62	0.60 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.71	0.10	0.40 LOW
Attacking Warriors (vs Rabbitohs defence)
1	Backs	2.24	1.57	1.90 HIGH
2	Spine	1.43	1.24	1.33 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.86	0.76	0.81 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.52	0.33	0.43 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Rabbitohs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.21/game (Rabbitohs backs score 3.14/game; Warriors concede to the backs at 1.29/game).

Override driven by the Warriors' catastrophic disruption — three spine players missing simultaneously. The Rabbitohs' season depends on this game and they face a fundamentally weakened opponent.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.