Raiders v Broncos
SavvyPlays · Friday 21 August 2026 · GIO Stadium · 6:00pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Raiders n=22, Broncos n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Raiders — 94% Best 17 (DS 1.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -1.0
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 22 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | Wing | 13 | -0.8 |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | Centre | 14 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 17 | -0.6 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 17 | -2.4 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 19 | -4.4 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 22 | -2.4 |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | Prop | 11 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | Hooker | 13 | +2.2 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 22 | -2.1 |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | Second Row | 20 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | Second Row | 1 | +4.0 |
| 13 | Ata Mariota | Lock | 21 | -3.0 |
| 14 | Tom Starling | Interchange | 22 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Joe Roddy | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Horsburgh | Interchange | 21 | -3.5 |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | Interchange | 14 | +0.1 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Morgan Smithies (new this round). Long-term (1): Hudson Young (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Broncos — 87% Best 17 (DS 6.8) — Squad avg ±/G: -9.0
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hayze Perham | Fullback | 3 | -17.0 |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | Wing | 19 | -10.0 |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | Centre | 18 | -5.4 |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | Centre | 15 | -5.0 |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | Wing | 9 | -13.7 |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | Five-Eighth | 19 | -6.4 |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | Halfback | 13 | -7.0 |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | Prop | 21 | -6.1 |
| 9 | Billy Walters | Hooker | 4 | -6.0 |
| 10 | Payne Haas | Prop | 14 | -5.1 |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | Second Row | 6 | -15.7 |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | Second Row | 19 | -9.4 |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | Lock | 15 | -9.7 |
| 14 | Blake Mozer | Interchange | 5 | -4.0 |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | Interchange | 7 | -6.0 |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | Interchange | 11 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Va'a Semu | Interchange | 10 | -6.6 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Reece Walsh (new this round), Adam Reynolds (3wk absent). Long-term (2): Brendan Piakura (5wk), Corey Jensen (18wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Raiders — Recent Form
12Raiders — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R24 | Sharks | A | 24-20 | W | +4 | +11.5 | W | 52.0 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Knights | H | 24-30 | L | -6 | -3.5 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Panthers | A | 18-42 | L | -24 | +9.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Wests Tigers | H | 56-10 | W | +46 | -15.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Rabbitohs | H | 34-24 | W | +10 | -0.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
Broncos — Recent Form
13Broncos — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R24 | Warriors | H | 6-40 | L | -34 | +7.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Dolphins | A | 32-40 | L | -8 | +9.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Knights | H | 6-30 | L | -24 | -5.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Cowboys | A | 10-18 | L | -8 | -4.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 2026 R20 | Panthers | A | 14-12 | W | +2 | +12.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
Raiders — Try Scoring
14Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Weekes | Fullback | 11 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 / 5 |
| X.Savage | Wing | 10 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 / 5 |
| S.Sasagi | Centre | 7 | 3 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 4 |
| S.Tamale | Centre | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 / 3 |
| J.Stuart | Wing | 6 | 2 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 / 1 |
| M.Timoko | Centre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 4 |
| E.Strange | Five-Eighth | 6 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 3 |
| H.Young | Second Row | 5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 2 |
| S.Kris | Interchange | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| N.Martin | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
Broncos — Try Scoring
15Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Staggs | Centre | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 / 2 |
| E.Mam | Five-Eighth | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 5 |
| X.Willison | Prop | 7 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 / 4 |
| R.Walsh | Fullback | 6 | 2 | — | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Karapani | Wing | 6 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 3 |
| J.Arthars | Interchange | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 1 |
| J.Riki | Second Row | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 / 4 |
| D.Mariner | Centre | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 2 |
| G.Shibasaki | Interchange | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| A.Reynolds | Halfback | 3 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 / 2 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Raiders (vs Broncos defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.64 | 2.24 | 1.94 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.05 | 1.52 | 1.28 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.67 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.39 LOW |
| Attacking Broncos (vs Raiders defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.00 | 2.05 | 1.52 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.90 | 1.32 | 1.11 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.79 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.52 | 0.23 | 0.38 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Raiders Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 1.94/game (Raiders backs score 1.64/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.24/game).
Neither team has anything to play for, but the Raiders' squad quality and home advantage are overwhelming. Broncos without Walsh and Reynolds are barely an NRL team.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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