Round 25 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Roosters v Wests Tigers

SavvyPlays · Sunday 23 August 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 4:05pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Roosters n=21, Wests Tigers n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

TOP 4 BATTLE

Motivation

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Wins to Finals

26.8

Points For / G

19.1

Points Against / G

29.1

1,657m

Run Metres / G

1,531m

4.8

Tries / G

3.3

75.0%

Completion %

78.6%

5.2

Penalties Conceded / G

4.2

3.6

Six Agains / G

4.1

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

16-5-0#1

Season Record

#147-14-0

8-2-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games2-7-0 (A)

23.5Home · #10

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1713.6

18.0Home · #4

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1630.4

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

10-11-0 (48%)

2026 Season — All

10-11-0 (48%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

6-5-0 (54%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

Current Streak

23-23-0 (50%)

2025-26 — All

22-23-0 (49%)

10-12-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

9-12-0 (43%)

13-11-0 (54%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-11-0 (54%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

9-12-0 (43%)

2026 Season — All

9-12-0 (43%)

3-7-0 (30%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

6-5-0 (54%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

Current Streak

24-22-0 (52%)

2025-26 — All

21-24-0 (47%)

13-9-0 (59%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-11-0 (48%)

11-13-0 (46%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-13-0 (46%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

12.0

1H Avg For

13.0

11.3

1H Avg Against

15.0

+0.7

1H Net

-2.0

100%

1H Win → Match Win

83%

13.7

2H Avg For

10.8

10.6

2H Avg Against

14.8

+3.1

2H Net

-4.0

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

175.0#5 Δ -5.1

Squad PCS

#17 Δ -2.4105.6

47.5#7 Δ -2.3

Spine PCS

#16 Δ -0.625.4

35.7#11 Δ -0.6

Forwards PCS

#13 Δ -3.330.8

73.7#5 Δ -2.0

Backs PCS

#17 Δ +0.543.0

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

14/21 (67%)

Scored first try — All games

9/21 (43%)

8/10 (80%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

2/9 (22%)

6/21 (29%)

Conceded first try — All games

11/21 (52%)

1/10 (10%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

7/9 (78%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

6 (H:2 A:4)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

5 (H:3 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

6 (H:6 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

2 (H:0 A:2)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

7 (H:3 A:4)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Roosters

Metric

Wests Tigers

0.492

Overall CI

0.465

0.556

Defensive CI

0.489

24.4

Margin SD

24.5

1.1

Disruption

6.0

93%

Best-17 %

79%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Roosters — 93% Best 17 (DS 1.1) — Squad avg ±/G: +7.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	James Tedesco	Fullback	16	+8.8
2	Billy Smith	Wing	12	+0.5
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	17	+13.4
4	Robert Toia	Centre	18	+12.1
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	16	+11.1
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	21	+7.8
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	19	+9.7
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	21	+5.4
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	17	+11.4
10	Spencer Leniu	Prop	17	+1.5
11	Salesi Foketi	Second Row	18	+0.6
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	21	+8.2
13	Victor Radley	Lock	15	+8.9
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	20	+3.5
15	Lindsay Collins	Interchange	15	-0.6
16	Nat Butcher	Interchange	19	+8.3
17	Egan Butcher	Interchange	13	+1.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Daniel Tupou (4wk absent). Long-term (2): Angus Crichton (9wk), Blake Steep (16wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Wests Tigers — 79% Best 17 (DS 6.0) — Squad avg ±/G: -7.9

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Jahream Bula	Fullback	18	-6.8
2	Junior Tupou	Wing	3	-17.0
3	Solomone Saukuru	Centre	1	-2.0
4	Patrick Herbert	Centre	8	-11.8
5	Jeral Skelton	Wing	12	-10.0
6	Jarome Luai	Five-Eighth	17	-13.8
7	Jock Madden	Halfback	12	-9.2
8	Terrell May	Prop	20	-12.2
9	Apisai Koroisau	Hooker	16	-0.6
10	Fonua Pole	Prop	21	-6.9
11	Samuela Fainu	Second Row	13	-2.5
12	Tony Sukkar	Second Row	7	-5.6
13	Alex Twal	Lock	15	-3.9
14	Heath Mason	Interchange	4	-8.0
15	Sione Fainu	Interchange	20	-4.7
16	Alex Seyfarth	Interchange	20	-8.0
17	Bunty Afoa	Interchange	8	-3.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Adam Doueihi (new this round), Heamasi Makasini (3wk absent), Starford To'a (3wk absent). Long-term (3): Latu Fainu (5wk), Kai Pearce-Paul (10wk), Taylan May (8wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Roosters — Recent Form

12Roosters — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Panthers	A	12-6	W	+6	+6.5	W	42.5	U
2026 R23	Bulldogs	H	20-18	W	+2	-5.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R22	Cowboys	A	82-12	W	+70	-5.5	W	44.5	O
2026 R21	Knights	A	23-22	W	+1	-8.5	L	45.5	U
2026 R20	Storm	H	14-6	W	+8	-11.5	L	44.5	U

Wests Tigers — Recent Form

13Wests Tigers — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Dragons	H	22-24	L	-2	-1.5	L	46.5	U
2026 R22	Eels	H	13-16	L	-3	+6.5	W	49.5	U
2026 R21	Raiders	A	10-56	L	-46	+15.5	L	51.5	O
2026 R20	Bulldogs	A	0-32	L	-32	+5.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R19	Warriors	H	6-32	L	-26	+8.5	L	45.5	U

Roosters — Try Scoring

14Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
M.Nawaqanitawase	Wing	15	1	3	4	3	3	5	5 / 10
D.Tupou	Wing	12	—	2	1	2	2	7	7 / 5
J.Tedesco	Fullback	11	2	1	3	2	4	2	4 / 7
R.Toia	Centre	10	2	1	2	4	2	2	5 / 5
B.Smith	Wing	10	2	—	2	3	2	3	5 / 5
S.Walker	Halfback	9	1	1	3	3	1	2	2 / 7
H.Savala	Centre	8	—	1	2	2	2	2	5 / 3
D.Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	6	3	1	3	0	1	2	2 / 4
S.Wong	Second Row	4	2	—	3	1	0	0	3 / 1
R.Robson	Hooker	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

Wests Tigers — Try Scoring

15Wests Tigers — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
A.Doueihi	Halfback	8	1	—	4	1	3	0	4 / 4
Ta.May	Centre	6	1	—	2	2	1	1	3 / 3
L.Laulili'i	Interchange	6	1	—	1	2	0	3	5 / 1
J.Bula	Fullback	6	—	—	0	4	1	1	4 / 2
S.Turuva	Wing	5	2	1	3	0	1	1	4 / 1
J.Skelton	Wing	4	1	1	1	0	1	2	4 / 0
Sa.Fainu	Second Row	4	1	—	1	2	1	0	3 / 1
K.Pearce-Paul	Second Row	4	—	1	0	3	0	1	3 / 1
F.Tavana	Interchange	4	—	—	1	2	1	0	1 / 3
J.Luai	Five-Eighth	4	—	1	0	0	2	2	4 / 0

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Roosters by 20

Strong · TOP 4 BATTLE v PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Win

Wests Tigers +25.5

predicted Roosters margin +20 vs line -25.5

ATS

Under 52.5

projected 42.6 · edge -9.9

Over / Under

Roosters Backs

HIGH · 2.57/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Roosters (vs Wests Tigers defence)
1	Backs	2.62	2.52	2.57 HIGH
2	Spine	1.48	1.19	1.33 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.43	0.90	0.67 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.29	0.52	0.40 LOW
Attacking Wests Tigers (vs Roosters defence)
1	Backs	0.90	1.52	1.21 HIGH
2	Spine	1.00	0.90	0.95 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.62	0.62	0.62 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.81	0.24	0.52 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Roosters Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.57/game (Roosters backs score 2.62/game; Wests Tigers concede to the backs at 2.52/game).

The widest ELO gap of the round. Roosters chasing the minor premiership against a Tigers side at 15% at Allianz and missing their most stabilising player.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.