Broncos v Storm
SavvyPlays · Thursday 27 August 2026 · Suncorp Stadium · 7:50pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Broncos n=22, Storm n=22). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Broncos — 87% Best 17 (DS 5.4) — Squad avg ±/G: -9.0
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hayze Perham | Fullback | 3 | -17.0 |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | Wing | 19 | -10.0 |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | Centre | 18 | -5.4 |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | Centre | 15 | -5.0 |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | Wing | 9 | -13.7 |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | Five-Eighth | 19 | -6.4 |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | Halfback | 13 | -7.0 |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | Prop | 21 | -6.1 |
| 9 | Billy Walters | Hooker | 4 | -6.0 |
| 10 | Payne Haas | Prop | 14 | -5.1 |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | Second Row | 6 | -15.7 |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | Second Row | 19 | -9.4 |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | Lock | 15 | -9.7 |
| 14 | Blake Mozer | Interchange | 5 | -4.0 |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | Interchange | 7 | -6.0 |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | Interchange | 11 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Va'a Semu | Interchange | 10 | -6.6 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Reece Walsh (2wk absent), Adam Reynolds (4wk absent). Long-term (2): Brendan Piakura (6wk), Corey Jensen (19wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Storm — 85% Best 17 (DS 3.9) — Squad avg ±/G: +0.5
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | Fullback | 21 | -1.2 |
| 2 | Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown | Wing | 5 | -4.4 |
| 3 | Tyran Wishart | Centre | 14 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | Centre | 17 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Moses Leo | Wing | 14 | +5.6 |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | Five-Eighth | 16 | +1.6 |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | Halfback | 16 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | Prop | 21 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Harry Grant | Hooker | 18 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Josh King | Prop | 21 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | Second Row | 10 | +4.2 |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | Second Row | 5 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | Lock | 18 | -3.3 |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | Interchange | 10 | -7.4 |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | Interchange | 16 | -4.9 |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | Interchange | 9 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | Interchange | 21 | -3.5 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jack Howarth (new this round), Joe Chan (new this round). Long-term (4): Ativalu Lisati (9wk), Xavier Coates (22wk), Will Warbrick (6wk), Josiah Pahulu (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Broncos — Recent Form
12Broncos — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R25 | Raiders | A | 34-30 | W | +4 | +10.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Warriors | H | 6-40 | L | -34 | +7.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Dolphins | A | 32-40 | L | -8 | +9.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Knights | H | 6-30 | L | -24 | -5.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Cowboys | A | 10-18 | L | -8 | -4.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
Storm — Recent Form
13Storm — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R25 | Panthers | H | 14-22 | L | -8 | +7.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Sea Eagles | H | 42-20 | W | +22 | +2.5 | W | 46.0 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Bulldogs | H | 22-36 | L | -14 | +10.5 | L | 42.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Rabbitohs | A | 26-28 | L | -2 | -1.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Roosters | A | 6-14 | L | -8 | +11.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
Broncos — Try Scoring
14Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Staggs | Centre | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 / 2 |
| E.Mam | Five-Eighth | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 6 |
| X.Willison | Prop | 7 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 / 4 |
| R.Walsh | Fullback | 6 | 2 | — | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Karapani | Wing | 6 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 3 |
| J.Arthars | Interchange | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 1 |
| J.Riki | Second Row | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 / 4 |
| D.Mariner | Centre | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 2 |
| G.Anderson | Wing | 4 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 2 |
| G.Shibasaki | Interchange | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
Storm — Try Scoring
15Storm — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Fa'alogo | Fullback | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 8 / 8 |
| W.Warbrick | Wing | 16 | 2 | — | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 / 7 |
| M.Leo | Wing | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 / 4 |
| H.Grant | Hooker | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Howarth | Centre | 6 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 / 2 |
| T.Wishart | Halfback | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 2 |
| N.Meaney | Centre | 4 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 / 3 |
| C.Munster | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Hughes | Halfback | 3 | — | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| S.Tuimalatu-Brown | Wing | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Broncos (vs Storm defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.05 | 2.36 | 1.70 HIGH |
| 2 | Forwards | 0.73 | 1.14 | 0.93 MODERATE |
| 3 | Spine | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.91 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.32 LOW |
| Attacking Storm (vs Broncos defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.82 | 2.14 | 1.98 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.55 | 1.59 | 1.57 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.52 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.36 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Storm Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 1.98/game (Storm backs score 1.82/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.14/game).
Both eliminated. Storm's 71% Suncorp record makes them the pick in a dead rubber — this ground lifts them regardless of the stakes.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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