Cowboys v Wests Tigers
SavvyPlays · Saturday 29 August 2026 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · 7:35pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Cowboys n=22, Wests Tigers n=22). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Cowboys — 88% Best 17 (DS 1.8) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.8
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | Fullback | 22 | -4.1 |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | Wing | 18 | -3.7 |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | Centre | 22 | -4.0 |
| 4 | Tom Chester | Centre | 21 | -3.9 |
| 5 | Zac Laybutt | Wing | 16 | -6.2 |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | Five-Eighth | 22 | -3.5 |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | Halfback | 10 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Griffin Neame | Prop | 21 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | Hooker | 19 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | Prop | 21 | -1.3 |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | Second Row | 22 | -3.4 |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | Second Row | 8 | -8.1 |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | Lock | 19 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Soni Luke | Interchange | 16 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | Interchange | 19 | +1.3 |
| 16 | John Bateman | Interchange | 5 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Coen Hess | Interchange | 22 | -4.7 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Murray Taulagi (2wk absent), Sam McIntyre (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Robert Derby (12wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Wests Tigers — 71% Best 17 (DS 5.9) — Squad avg ±/G: -8.2
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | Fullback | 18 | -6.8 |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | Wing | 3 | -17.0 |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | Centre | 1 | -2.0 |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | Centre | 8 | -11.8 |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | Wing | 12 | -10.0 |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | Five-Eighth | 17 | -13.8 |
| 7 | Jock Madden | Halfback | 12 | -9.2 |
| 8 | Terrell May | Prop | 20 | -12.2 |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | Hooker | 16 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | Prop | 21 | -6.9 |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | Second Row | 13 | -2.5 |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | Second Row | 7 | -5.6 |
| 13 | Alex Seyfarth | Lock | 20 | -8.0 |
| 14 | Heath Mason | Interchange | 4 | -8.0 |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | Interchange | 20 | -4.7 |
| 16 | Ethan Roberts | Interchange | 1 | -46.0 |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | Interchange | 8 | -3.8 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Adam Doueihi (2wk absent), Heamasi Makasini (4wk absent), Starford To'a (4wk absent), Alex Twal (new this round). Long-term (3): Latu Fainu (6wk), Kai Pearce-Paul (11wk), Taylan May (9wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Cowboys — Recent Form
12Cowboys — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R24 | Eels | A | 30-32 | L | -2 | -5.5 | L | 49.0 | O |
| 2026 R23 | Titans | A | 30-8 | W | +22 | -4.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Roosters | H | 12-82 | L | -70 | +5.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 2026 R21 | Broncos | H | 18-10 | W | +8 | +4.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 2026 R20 | Dolphins | A | 16-36 | L | -20 | +3.5 | L | 50.0 | O |
Wests Tigers — Recent Form
13Wests Tigers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R25 | Roosters | A | 25-24 | W | +1 | +24.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Dragons | H | 22-24 | L | -2 | -1.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Eels | H | 13-16 | L | -3 | +6.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Raiders | A | 10-56 | L | -46 | +15.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 2026 R20 | Bulldogs | A | 0-32 | L | -32 | +5.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
Cowboys — Try Scoring
14Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Burns | Wing | 14 | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 / 10 |
| M.Taulagi | Wing | 11 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 / 3 |
| H.Luki | Second Row | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 / 5 |
| S.Drinkwater | Fullback | 9 | 2 | — | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 7 |
| T.Chester | Centre | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 / 4 |
| J.Clifford | Five-Eighth | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 / 3 |
| J.Purdue | Halfback | 8 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 / 6 |
| R.Mahoney | Hooker | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Nanai | Second Row | 4 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 2 |
| R.Cotter | Lock | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 3 |
Wests Tigers — Try Scoring
15Wests Tigers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Doueihi | Halfback | 8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 / 4 |
| J.Skelton | Wing | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 / 2 |
| Ta.May | Centre | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 3 |
| L.Laulili'i | Interchange | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 / 1 |
| J.Bula | Fullback | 6 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| S.Turuva | Wing | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 1 |
| Sa.Fainu | Second Row | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Luai | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 0 |
| K.Pearce-Paul | Second Row | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| F.Tavana | Interchange | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Cowboys (vs Wests Tigers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.64 | 2.55 | 2.09 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.50 | 1.18 | 1.34 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.84 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.18 | 0.50 | 0.34 LOW |
| Attacking Wests Tigers (vs Cowboys defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.00 | 2.59 | 1.80 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.18 MODERATE |
| 3 | Interchange | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.59 MODERATE |
| 4 | Forwards | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.57 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Cowboys Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.09/game (Cowboys backs score 1.64/game; Wests Tigers concede to the backs at 2.55/game).
Cowboys need both remaining wins for finals, but the Tigers arrive with the most powerful confidence signal in the dataset — 100% next-game win rate after beating the Roosters. Our margin of +8 reflects this tension.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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