Round 26 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Roosters v Dolphins

SavvyPlays · Saturday 29 August 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 5:30pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Roosters n=22, Dolphins n=22). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

TOP 4 BATTLE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

26.7

Points For / G

27.8

19.3

Points Against / G

21.6

1,660m

Run Metres / G

1,677m

4.8

Tries / G

4.8

75.1%

Completion %

76.0%

5.2

Penalties Conceded / G

4.8

3.5

Six Agains / G

4.1

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

16-6-0#1

Season Record

#415-7-0

8-3-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games7-3-0 (A)

23.6Home · #10

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #626.8

18.6Home · #4

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #115.9

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

10-12-0 (46%)

2026 Season — All

13-9-0 (59%)

4-7-0 (36%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

7-3-0 (70%)

6-5-0 (54%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

Current Streak

23-24-0 (49%)

2025-26 — All

25-21-0 (54%)

10-13-0 (43%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

13-11-0 (54%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

14-10-0 (58%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

9-13-0 (41%)

2026 Season — All

9-13-0 (41%)

3-8-0 (27%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

2-8-0 (20%)

6-5-0 (54%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-5-0 (58%)

Current Streak

24-23-0 (51%)

2025-26 — All

23-23-0 (50%)

13-10-0 (57%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-14-0 (36%)

11-13-0 (46%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

15-9-0 (62%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

12.0

1H Avg For

10.7

11.3

1H Avg Against

12.0

+0.7

1H Net

-1.3

100%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

13.7

2H Avg For

18.9

10.6

2H Avg Against

8.3

+3.1

2H Net

+10.6

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

173.4#6 Δ -1.6

Squad PCS

#1 Δ +10.6202.7

46.4#8 Δ -1.1

Spine PCS

#9 Δ -0.745.8

35.9#10 Δ +0.3

Forwards PCS

#14 Δ +2.431.0

72.9#5 Δ -0.8

Backs PCS

#1 Δ +6.4101.8

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

15/22 (68%)

Scored first try — All games

5/22 (23%)

9/11 (82%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/10 (30%)

6/22 (27%)

Conceded first try — All games

14/22 (64%)

1/11 (9%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

2 (H:0 A:2)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

6 (H:2 A:4)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

6 (H:4 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

6 (H:6 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Roosters

Metric

Dolphins

0.497

Overall CI

0.478

0.560

Defensive CI

0.500

23.9

Margin SD

23.2

3.7

Disruption

0.3

93%

Best-17 %

100%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Roosters — 93% Best 17 (DS 3.7) — Squad avg ±/G: +7.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	James Tedesco	Fullback	16	+8.8
2	Billy Smith	Wing	12	+0.5
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	17	+13.4
4	Robert Toia	Centre	18	+12.1
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	16	+11.1
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	21	+7.8
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	19	+9.7
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	21	+5.4
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	17	+11.4
10	Lindsay Collins	Prop	15	-0.6
11	Salesi Foketi	Second Row	18	+0.6
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	21	+8.2
13	Nat Butcher	Lock	19	+8.3
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	20	+3.5
15	Spencer Leniu	Interchange	17	+1.5
16	Egan Butcher	Interchange	13	+1.8
17	Taylor Losalu	Interchange	1	+0.0

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Victor Radley (new this round). Long-term (3): Angus Crichton (10wk), Daniel Tupou (5wk), Blake Steep (17wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Dolphins — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	16	+8.3
2	Jamayne Isaako	Wing	21	+5.7
3	Jack Bostock	Centre	10	+17.8
4	Herbie Farnworth	Centre	20	+5.6
5	Selwyn Cobbo	Wing	16	+7.6
6	Kodi Nikorima	Five-Eighth	17	+4.4
7	Isaiya Katoa	Halfback	16	+8.6
8	Thomas Flegler	Prop	16	-5.2
9	Jeremy Marshall-King	Hooker	13	+8.5
10	Tom Gilbert	Prop	20	+4.5
11	Max Plath	Second Row	16	+11.1
12	Kulikefu Finefeuiaki	Second Row	20	+4.3
13	Morgan Knowles	Lock	20	+1.6
14	Ray Stone	Interchange	16	+9.1
15	Francis Molo	Interchange	17	-5.4
16	Felise Kaufusi	Interchange	18	+2.8
17	Brian Pouniu	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (1): Daniel Saifiti (22wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Roosters — Recent Form

12Roosters — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R25	Wests Tigers	H	24-25	L	-1	-24.5	L	53.5	U
2026 R24	Panthers	A	12-6	W	+6	+6.5	W	42.5	U
2026 R23	Bulldogs	H	20-18	W	+2	-5.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R22	Cowboys	A	82-12	W	+70	-5.5	W	44.5	O
2026 R21	Knights	A	23-22	W	+1	-8.5	L	45.5	U

Dolphins — Recent Form

13Dolphins — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R25	Eels	H	34-16	W	+18	-15.0	W	51.5	U
2026 R24	Sea Eagles	A	22-0	W	+22	-11.5	W	51.5	U
2026 R23	Broncos	H	40-32	W	+8	-9.5	L	48.5	O
2026 R22	Dragons	A	28-22	W	+6	-15.5	L	50.5	U
2026 R20	Cowboys	H	36-16	W	+20	-3.5	W	50.0	O

Roosters — Try Scoring

14Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
M.Nawaqanitawase	Wing	15	1	3	4	3	3	5	5 / 10
B.Smith	Wing	12	3	—	3	4	2	3	7 / 5
D.Tupou	Wing	12	—	2	1	2	2	7	7 / 5
J.Tedesco	Fullback	11	2	1	3	2	4	2	4 / 7
R.Toia	Centre	11	2	1	2	4	2	3	6 / 5
S.Walker	Halfback	10	1	2	3	3	1	3	3 / 7
H.Savala	Centre	8	—	1	2	2	2	2	5 / 3
D.Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	6	3	1	3	0	1	2	2 / 4
S.Wong	Second Row	4	2	—	3	1	0	0	3 / 1
R.Robson	Hooker	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

Dolphins — Try Scoring

15Dolphins — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Isaako	Wing	21	—	3	1	11	6	3	12 / 9
S.Cobbo	Wing	15	3	3	3	4	3	5	8 / 7
H.Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	11	1	2	1	2	3	5	7 / 4
H.Farnworth	Centre	11	—	2	3	4	2	2	8 / 3
J.Averillo	Interchange	6	1	—	2	0	1	3	3 / 3
C.Lemuelu	Second Row	6	—	2	0	2	2	2	4 / 2
J.Bostock	Centre	5	—	—	0	0	1	4	3 / 2
K.Nikorima	Five-Eighth	4	1	—	0	1	1	2	2 / 2
K.Finefeuiaki	Second Row	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	3 / 0
T.Naufahu	Interchange	3	—	1	1	0	1	1	1 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Roosters by 4

Lean · TOP 4 BATTLE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Dolphins +5.5

predicted Roosters margin +4 vs line -5.5

ATS

Under 47.5

projected 40.0 · edge -7.5

Over / Under

Roosters Backs

HIGH · 2.25/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Roosters (vs Dolphins defence)
1	Backs	2.64	1.86	2.25 HIGH
2	Spine	1.45	0.91	1.18 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.45	0.73	0.59 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.23	0.32	0.27 LOW
Attacking Dolphins (vs Roosters defence)
1	Backs	2.36	1.59	1.98 HIGH
2	Spine	0.95	0.91	0.93 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.59	0.64	0.61 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.86	0.23	0.55 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Roosters Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.25/game (Roosters backs score 2.64/game; Dolphins concede to the backs at 1.86/game).

Both teams fighting for top-4 seeding. The Roosters' home advantage and 4-1 H2H edge the Dolphins' superior named-squad PCS. Radley's absence is a concern at lock.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.