Warriors v Knights
SavvyPlays · Sunday 30 August 2026 · Go Media Stadium · 2:00pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Warriors n=22, Knights n=23). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Warriors — 79% Best 17 (DS 8.4) — Squad avg ±/G: +9.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | Fullback | 18 | +10.6 |
| 2 | Luke Laulilii | Wing | 8 | -4.4 |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | Centre | 17 | +16.0 |
| 4 | Leka Halasima | Centre | 16 | +9.2 |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | Wing | 13 | +12.2 |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | Five-Eighth | 18 | +13.8 |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | Halfback | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | Prop | 18 | +8.6 |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | Hooker | 21 | +11.1 |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | Prop | 12 | +7.0 |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | Second Row | 11 | +15.5 |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | Second Row | 20 | +10.5 |
| 13 | Erin Clark | Lock | 21 | +8.8 |
| 14 | Sam Healey | Interchange | 18 | +3.3 |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | Interchange | 16 | +7.5 |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | Interchange | 17 | +7.5 |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | Interchange | 9 | +9.6 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (2wk absent), Luke Metcalf (2wk absent), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (new this round). Long-term (3): Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (14wk), Jackson Ford (10wk), Marata Niukore (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Knights — 80% Best 17 (DS 5.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +3.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | Fullback | 13 | +9.7 |
| 2 | Fletcher Hunt | Wing | 14 | -2.3 |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | Centre | 21 | +3.5 |
| 4 | Bradman Best | Centre | 12 | +6.9 |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | Wing | 21 | +4.6 |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | Five-Eighth | 20 | +4.0 |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | Halfback | 15 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | Prop | 16 | +2.5 |
| 9 | Harrison Graham | Hooker | 14 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | Prop | 20 | +4.2 |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | Second Row | 18 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | Second Row | 9 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Mat Croker | Lock | 22 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | Interchange | 13 | +1.7 |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | Interchange | 3 | +10.7 |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Pasami Saulo | Interchange | 13 | +0.3 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Tyson Frizell (new this round), Dominic Young (new this round), Phoenix Crossland (new this round). Long-term (2): Dylan Brown (5wk), Dylan Lucas (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Warriors — Recent Form
12Warriors — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R25 | Rabbitohs | A | 45-26 | W | +19 | -3.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Broncos | A | 40-6 | W | +34 | -7.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Panthers | H | 28-12 | W | +16 | +3.5 | W | 41.0 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Titans | A | 42-6 | W | +36 | -4.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Bulldogs | A | 6-18 | L | -12 | -3.5 | L | 41.5 | U |
Knights — Recent Form
13Knights — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R25 | Sea Eagles | H | 24-44 | L | -20 | -9.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Titans | H | 36-26 | W | +10 | -12.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R23 | Raiders | A | 30-24 | W | +6 | +3.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Broncos | A | 30-6 | W | +24 | +5.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Roosters | H | 22-23 | L | -1 | +8.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
Warriors — Try Scoring
14Warriors — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watene-Zelezniak | Wing | 20 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 8 / 12 |
| A.Khan-Pereira | Wing | 15 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 / 10 |
| C.Nicoll-Klokstad | Fullback | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 / 2 |
| C.Harris-Tavita | Halfback | 8 | — | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 / 4 |
| L.Halasima | Centre | 8 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 / 5 |
| J.Laban | Second Row | 6 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 / 5 |
| T.Martin | Halfback | 6 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 / 4 |
| E.Clark | Lock | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 2 |
| A.Leiataua | Interchange | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| J.Ford | Prop | 4 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 / 3 |
Knights — Try Scoring
15Knights — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Marzhew | Wing | 22 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 11 / 11 |
| D.Young | Wing | 20 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 / 15 |
| F.Sharpe | Five-Eighth | 12 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 / 6 |
| F.Hunt | Centre | 11 | 1 | — | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 / 5 |
| D.Lucas | Second Row | 10 | 2 | — | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 / 4 |
| K.Ponga | Fullback | 5 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 / 5 |
| T.Mooney | Prop | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 / 2 |
| D.Gagai | Centre | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 / 3 |
| B.Best | Centre | 4 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 1 |
| P.Crossland | Hooker | 3 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Warriors (vs Knights defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.18 | 1.70 | 1.94 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.59 | 1.30 | 1.45 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.95 | 0.83 | 0.89 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.42 LOW |
| Attacking Knights (vs Warriors defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.70 | 1.41 | 2.05 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.89 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.87 | 0.59 | 0.73 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.11 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Knights Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.05/game (Knights backs score 2.70/game; Warriors concede to the backs at 1.41/game).
Warriors chasing top-4 seeding but carrying complacency risk and significant disruption. The Knights' 13% Mt Smart record is the tiebreaker — some venues simply haunt certain teams.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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