Round 27 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Bulldogs v Broncos

SavvyPlays · Thursday 03 September 2026 · Accor Stadium · 7:50pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Bulldogs n=23, Broncos n=23). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Motivation

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Wins to Finals

19.8

Points For / G

19.0

21.8

Points Against / G

28.6

1,598m

Run Metres / G

1,389m

3.4

Tries / G

3.3

77.5%

Completion %

77.3%

5.2

Penalties Conceded / G

5.8

2.7

Six Agains / G

4.3

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

11-12-0#9

Season Record

#157-16-0

7-4-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-6-0 (A)

18.6Home · #15

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1518.3

17.6Home · #3

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1427.8

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

10-13-0 (44%)

2026 Season — All

9-14-0 (39%)

5-6-0 (46%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-5-0 (54%)

5-7-0 (42%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-9-0 (25%)

Current Streak

22-27-0 (45%)

2025-26 — All

25-24-1 (51%)

12-12-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

13-11-1 (54%)

10-15-0 (40%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

12-13-0 (48%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

8-15-0 (35%)

2026 Season — All

10-13-0 (44%)

2-9-0 (18%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-6-0 (46%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-7-0 (42%)

Current Streak

19-30-0 (39%)

2025-26 — All

23-27-0 (46%)

7-17-0 (29%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-14-0 (44%)

12-13-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

12-13-0 (48%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

7.0

1H Avg For

8.0

13.6

1H Avg Against

15.7

-6.6

1H Net

-7.7

75%

1H Win → Match Win

80%

10.4

2H Avg For

12.1

10.9

2H Avg Against

12.1

-0.4

2H Net

+0.0

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

147.4#11 Δ +2.4

Squad PCS

#15 Δ -7.5122.4

46.3#5 Δ +1.0

Spine PCS

#15 Δ -1.731.9

30.8#13 Δ -0.8

Forwards PCS

#9 Δ -1.638.5

66.6#7 Δ +0.5

Backs PCS

#15 Δ -2.348.3

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

9/23 (39%)

Scored first try — All games

9/23 (39%)

5/11 (45%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

4/11 (36%)

12/23 (52%)

Conceded first try — All games

14/23 (61%)

5/11 (45%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

7/11 (64%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:2 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

4 (H:1 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:3 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

3 (H:2 A:1)

9 (H:4 A:5)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

7 (H:4 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Bulldogs

Metric

Broncos

0.548

Overall CI

0.556

0.566

Defensive CI

0.566

17.3

Margin SD

16.4

2.6

Disruption

3.7

88%

Best-17 %

86%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Bulldogs — 88% Best 17 (DS 2.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Connor Tracey	Fullback	19	-4.3
2	Jacob Kiraz	Wing	18	+0.7
3	Matt Burton	Centre	21	-2.1
4	Bronson Xerri	Centre	14	-6.7
5	Enari Tuala	Wing	18	-0.8
6	Stephen Crichton	Five-Eighth	17	-6.1
7	Lachlan Galvin	Halfback	22	-3.5
8	Max King	Prop	18	-1.2
9	Bailey Hayward	Hooker	20	-0.2
10	Leo Thompson	Prop	17	-2.9
11	Viliame Kikau	Second Row	13	-1.2
12	Jacob Preston	Second Row	18	-4.4
13	Jaeman Salmon	Lock	22	-2.7
14	Jake Turpin	Interchange	5	-6.0
15	Alekolasimi Jones	Interchange	—	—
16	Harry Hayes	Interchange	19	-2.7
17	Josh Curran	Interchange	14	+2.3

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Kurt Mann (2wk absent), Sitili Tupouniua (4wk absent). Long-term (1): Marcelo Montoya (7wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Broncos — 86% Best 17 (DS 3.7) — Squad avg ±/G: -10.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Hayze Perham	Fullback	4	-19.2
2	Josiah Karapani	Wing	20	-10.8
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	19	-6.5
4	Deine Mariner	Centre	16	-6.3
5	Grant Anderson	Wing	10	-14.9
6	Ezra Mam	Five-Eighth	20	-7.4
7	Ben Hunt	Halfback	14	-8.4
8	Xavier Willison	Prop	22	-6.5
9	Billy Walters	Hooker	5	-10.0
10	Payne Haas	Prop	15	-6.1
11	Jaiyden Hunt	Second Row	7	-16.3
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	20	-10.2
13	Patrick Carrigan	Lock	16	-10.4
14	Thomas Duffy	Interchange	8	-13.2
15	Va'a Semu	Interchange	11	-7.1
16	Jack Gosiewski	Interchange	12	-1.4
17	Aublix Tawha	Interchange	8	-6.5

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Reece Walsh (3wk absent), Blake Mozer (new this round). Long-term (3): Adam Reynolds (5wk), Brendan Piakura (7wk), Corey Jensen (20wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Bulldogs — Recent Form

12Bulldogs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R26	Panthers	A	10-24	L	-14	+9.5	L	40.5	U
2026 R25	Dragons	A	44-14	W	+30	-7.5	W	42.5	O
2026 R24	Rabbitohs	H	6-22	L	-16	-4.5	L	43.5	U
2026 R23	Roosters	A	18-20	L	-2	+5.5	W	44.5	U
2026 R22	Storm	A	36-22	W	+14	-10.5	W	42.5	O

Broncos — Recent Form

13Broncos — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R26	Storm	H	20-46	L	-26	+4.5	L	50.5	O
2026 R25	Raiders	A	34-30	W	+4	+10.5	W	50.5	O
2026 R24	Warriors	H	6-40	L	-34	+7.5	L	46.5	U
2026 R23	Dolphins	A	32-40	L	-8	+9.5	W	48.5	O
2026 R22	Knights	H	6-30	L	-24	-5.5	L	45.5	U

Bulldogs — Try Scoring

14Bulldogs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Kiraz	Wing	9	1	2	2	1	4	2	5 / 4
M.Burton	Centre	9	—	—	0	3	4	2	4 / 5
L.Galvin	Halfback	8	1	1	1	1	3	3	2 / 6
J.Rinakama	Wing	7	2	—	2	1	2	2	4 / 3
S.Crichton	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	2	2	2	3 / 4
J.Preston	Second Row	7	1	—	2	2	1	2	3 / 4
J.Curran	Interchange	6	—	2	1	1	1	3	3 / 3
S.Tupouniua	Interchange	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	3 / 1
E.Tuala	Wing	4	—	—	1	1	1	1	3 / 1
C.Tracey	Fullback	4	—	3	1	0	0	3	1 / 3

Broncos — Try Scoring

15Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
E.Mam	Five-Eighth	10	1	1	2	3	3	2	4 / 6
K.Staggs	Centre	9	2	2	4	2	2	1	7 / 2
X.Willison	Prop	7	—	1	0	2	2	3	3 / 4
R.Walsh	Fullback	6	2	—	2	0	3	1	4 / 2
J.Karapani	Wing	6	—	1	0	3	1	2	3 / 3
J.Arthars	Interchange	5	—	1	0	1	3	1	4 / 1
J.Riki	Second Row	4	1	—	1	0	2	1	0 / 4
D.Mariner	Centre	4	—	—	1	2	0	1	2 / 2
G.Anderson	Wing	4	—	—	0	2	0	2	2 / 2
G.Shibasaki	Interchange	3	1	—	1	0	1	1	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Bulldogs by 10

Strong · PLAYING FOR PRIDE v PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Win

Broncos +10.5

predicted Bulldogs margin +10 vs line -10.5

ATS

Under 52.5

projected 38.9 · edge -13.6

Over / Under

Bulldogs Backs

HIGH · 1.87/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Bulldogs (vs Broncos defence)
1	Backs	1.43	2.30	1.87 HIGH
2	Spine	0.83	1.57	1.20 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.61	0.61	0.61 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.48	0.30	0.39 LOW
Attacking Broncos (vs Bulldogs defence)
1	Backs	1.04	2.13	1.59 HIGH
2	Spine	1.09	0.78	0.93 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.70	0.70	0.70 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.48	0.26	0.37 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Bulldogs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 1.87/game (Bulldogs backs score 1.43/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.30/game).

Both seasons are over. The Bulldogs' superior squad quality and home advantage at Accor decide a game with nothing riding on it.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.