Round 27 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Cowboys v Raiders

SavvyPlays · Saturday 05 September 2026 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · 5:30pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Cowboys n=23, Raiders n=23). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

LOCKED IN

Motivation

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Wins to Finals

23.4

Points For / G

23.1

26.2

Points Against / G

25.9

1,613m

Run Metres / G

1,567m

4.1

Tries / G

4.0

75.1%

Completion %

79.4%

5.6

Penalties Conceded / G

5.0

4.7

Six Agains / G

3.3

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

13-10-0#7

Season Record

#1110-13-0

7-4-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-6-0 (A)

24.0Home · #8

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1221.7

28.8Home · #14

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1528.6

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

13-10-0 (56%)

2026 Season — All

9-14-0 (39%)

7-4-0 (64%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-6-0 (46%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-8-0 (33%)

Current Streak

26-21-0 (55%)

2025-26 — All

25-24-0 (51%)

14-9-0 (61%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-12-0 (48%)

12-12-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

14-12-0 (54%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

10-13-0 (44%)

2026 Season — All

11-12-0 (48%)

4-7-0 (36%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-6-0 (46%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

Current Streak

24-23-0 (51%)

2025-26 — All

25-23-1 (52%)

11-12-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-13-0 (43%)

13-11-0 (54%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

15-10-1 (60%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

13.6

1H Avg For

11.2

12.9

1H Avg Against

12.6

+0.7

1H Net

-1.4

88%

1H Win → Match Win

75%

10.6

2H Avg For

7.5

13.1

2H Avg Against

14.3

-2.5

2H Net

-6.9

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

130.6#14 Δ -6.7

Squad PCS

#9 Δ +0.0157.0

44.1#9 Δ -3.9

Spine PCS

#2 Δ +0.053.6

28.7#15 Δ +0.2

Forwards PCS

#5 Δ +0.041.0

48.2#16 Δ -2.2

Backs PCS

#12 Δ +0.054.4

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

12/23 (52%)

Scored first try — All games

13/23 (57%)

7/11 (64%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

7/11 (64%)

10/23 (43%)

Conceded first try — All games

9/23 (39%)

4/11 (36%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

3/11 (27%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:0 A:2)

5 (H:4 A:1)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

9 (H:5 A:4)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

7 (H:3 A:4)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Cowboys

Metric

Raiders

0.469

Overall CI

0.555

0.464

Defensive CI

0.600

22.4

Margin SD

18.1

7.3

Disruption

6.6

76%

Best-17 %

75%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Cowboys — 76% Best 17 (DS 7.3) — Squad avg ±/G: -0.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	23	-3.3
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	19	-2.7
3	Jaxon Purdue	Centre	23	-3.2
4	Tom Chester	Centre	22	-3.1
5	Robert Derby	Wing	1	+12.0
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	23	-2.8
7	Tom Dearden	Halfback	11	+2.4
8	Coen Hess	Prop	23	-4.5
9	Reed Mahoney	Hooker	20	-0.3
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	22	-0.5
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	23	-2.6
12	John Bateman	Second Row	5	-0.4
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	20	+1.5
14	Soni Luke	Interchange	17	-1.6
15	Sam McIntyre	Interchange	14	-5.8
16	Thomas Mikaele	Interchange	20	+1.9
17	Kaiden Lahrs	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Zac Laybutt (new this round), Griffin Neame (new this round), Jeremiah Nanai (new this round), Murray Taulagi (3wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Raiders — 75% Best 17 (DS 6.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -1.1

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kaeo Weekes	Fullback	22	-2.8
2	Jed Stuart	Wing	13	-0.8
3	Simi Sasagi	Centre	14	+2.4
4	Matthew Timoko	Centre	17	-0.6
5	Xavier Savage	Wing	17	-2.4
6	Ethan Strange	Five-Eighth	19	-4.4
7	Coby Black	Halfback	—	—
8	Josh Papalii	Prop	11	-1.5
9	Owen Pattie	Hooker	13	+2.2
10	Joseph Tapine	Prop	22	-2.1
11	Noah Martin	Second Row	10	-3.7
12	Matty Nicholson	Second Row	1	+4.0
13	Ata Mariota	Lock	21	-3.0
14	Malachi Smith	Interchange	—	—
15	Joe Roddy	Interchange	—	—
16	Morgan Smithies	Interchange	20	-1.1
17	Vena Patuki-Case	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Corey Horsburgh (2wk absent), Sebastian Kris (2wk absent), Zac Hosking (2wk absent), Savelio Tamale (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Hudson Young (7wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Cowboys — Recent Form

12Cowboys — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R26	Wests Tigers	H	24-10	W	+14	-13.5	W	55.5	U
2026 R24	Eels	A	30-32	L	-2	-5.5	L	49.0	O
2026 R23	Titans	A	30-8	W	+22	-4.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R22	Roosters	H	12-82	L	-70	+5.5	L	44.5	O
2026 R21	Broncos	H	18-10	W	+8	+4.5	W	47.5	U

Raiders — Recent Form

13Raiders — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R25	Broncos	H	30-34	L	-4	-10.5	L	50.5	O
2026 R24	Sharks	A	24-20	W	+4	+11.5	W	52.0	U
2026 R23	Knights	H	24-30	L	-6	-3.5	L	43.5	O
2026 R22	Panthers	A	18-42	L	-24	+9.5	L	44.5	O
2026 R21	Wests Tigers	H	56-10	W	+46	-15.5	W	51.5	O

Cowboys — Try Scoring

14Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
B.Burns	Wing	14	—	2	2	5	3	4	4 / 10
M.Taulagi	Wing	11	2	—	4	3	3	1	8 / 3
T.Chester	Centre	11	2	1	3	1	3	4	7 / 4
H.Luki	Second Row	11	1	4	2	2	1	6	6 / 5
S.Drinkwater	Fullback	9	2	—	2	5	0	2	2 / 7
J.Purdue	Centre	9	—	—	1	3	5	0	3 / 6
J.Clifford	Five-Eighth	8	1	3	2	2	0	4	5 / 3
R.Mahoney	Hooker	4	1	—	1	2	1	0	3 / 1
J.Nanai	Second Row	4	—	1	1	1	0	2	2 / 2
R.Cotter	Lock	3	—	1	1	0	1	1	0 / 3

Raiders — Try Scoring

15Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
K.Weekes	Fullback	13	1	—	4	7	1	1	8 / 5
X.Savage	Wing	10	1	—	3	1	5	1	5 / 5
S.Sasagi	Centre	7	3	—	4	1	1	1	3 / 4
S.Tamale	Interchange	7	2	1	2	2	2	1	4 / 3
J.Stuart	Wing	6	2	—	3	1	1	1	5 / 1
M.Timoko	Centre	6	1	1	1	2	1	2	2 / 4
E.Strange	Five-Eighth	6	—	—	0	2	1	3	3 / 3
H.Young	Second Row	5	1	—	3	2	0	0	3 / 2
Z.Hosking	Second Row	5	—	—	0	2	2	1	2 / 3
S.Kris	Interchange	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	3 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Cowboys by 4

Lean · LOCKED IN v PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Win

Raiders +6.5

predicted Cowboys margin +4 vs line -6.5

ATS

Under 54.5

projected 52.8 · edge -1.7

Over / Under

Cowboys Backs

HIGH · 2.04/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Cowboys (vs Raiders defence)
1	Backs	2.04	2.04	2.04 HIGH
2	Spine	1.09	1.39	1.24 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.83	0.87	0.85 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.17	0.22	0.20 LOW
Attacking Raiders (vs Cowboys defence)
1	Backs	1.26	2.57	1.91 HIGH
2	Spine	1.13	1.30	1.22 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.78	0.52	0.65 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.83	0.35	0.59 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Cowboys Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.04/game (Cowboys backs score 2.04/game; Raiders concede to the backs at 2.04/game).

A genuine coin flip complicated by both teams' disruption. The Cowboys' home advantage and the Raiders' 18% QCB record are the tiebreakers.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.