Panthers v Wests Tigers
SavvyPlays · Sunday 06 September 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 4:05pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Panthers n=23, Wests Tigers n=23). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Panthers — 88% Best 17 (DS 3.1) — Squad avg ±/G: +12.5
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | Fullback | 18 | +16.2 |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | Wing | 21 | +13.3 |
| 3 | Luke Garner | Centre | 15 | +8.1 |
| 4 | Casey McLean | Centre | 15 | +19.7 |
| 5 | Brian To'o | Wing | 20 | +14.9 |
| 6 | Jack Cole | Five-Eighth | 1 | +14.0 |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | Halfback | 19 | +13.9 |
| 8 | Moses Leota | Prop | 22 | +6.5 |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | Hooker | 6 | +14.0 |
| 10 | Liam Henry | Prop | 13 | +10.3 |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | Second Row | 21 | +11.9 |
| 12 | Liam Martin | Second Row | 14 | +11.2 |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | Lock | 22 | +9.0 |
| 14 | Freddy Lussick | Interchange | 19 | +7.6 |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | Interchange | 22 | +7.2 |
| 16 | Luron Patea | Interchange | 4 | +3.8 |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | Interchange | 19 | +3.8 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Izack Tago (new this round), Paul Alamoti (3wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Wests Tigers — 85% Best 17 (DS 3.0) — Squad avg ±/G: -8.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | Fullback | 19 | -7.2 |
| 2 | Junior Tupou | Wing | 4 | -16.2 |
| 3 | Solomone Saukuru | Centre | 2 | -8.0 |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | Centre | 9 | -12.0 |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | Wing | 13 | -10.3 |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | Five-Eighth | 18 | -13.6 |
| 7 | Jock Madden | Halfback | 13 | -9.6 |
| 8 | Terrell May | Prop | 21 | -11.8 |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | Hooker | 17 | -1.4 |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | Prop | 22 | -7.2 |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | Second Row | 14 | -3.1 |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | Second Row | 21 | -5.0 |
| 13 | Alex Seyfarth | Lock | 21 | -7.7 |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | Interchange | 12 | -10.1 |
| 15 | Vaka Aho | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Roberts | Interchange | 1 | -46.0 |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | Interchange | 9 | -4.7 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Adam Doueihi (3wk absent), Alex Twal (2wk absent). Long-term (4): Heamasi Makasini (5wk), Starford To'a (5wk), Kai Pearce-Paul (12wk), Taylan May (10wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Panthers — Recent Form
12Panthers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R26 | Bulldogs | H | 24-10 | W | +14 | -9.5 | W | 40.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Storm | A | 22-14 | W | +8 | -7.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Roosters | H | 6-12 | L | -6 | -6.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Warriors | A | 12-28 | L | -16 | -3.5 | L | 41.0 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Raiders | H | 42-18 | W | +24 | -9.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
Wests Tigers — Recent Form
13Wests Tigers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R26 | Cowboys | A | 10-24 | L | -14 | +13.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Roosters | A | 25-24 | W | +1 | +24.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Dragons | H | 22-24 | L | -2 | -1.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Eels | H | 13-16 | L | -3 | +6.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Raiders | A | 10-56 | L | -46 | +15.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
Panthers — Try Scoring
14Panthers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jenkins | Wing | 28 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 13 / 15 |
| B.To'o | Wing | 14 | 2 | — | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 / 8 |
| D.Edwards | Fullback | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 8 |
| C.McLean | Centre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 / 3 |
| L.Martin | Second Row | 7 | 3 | — | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 / 2 |
| N.Cleary | Halfback | 6 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 4 |
| B.Talagi | Interchange | 5 | 1 | — | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| P.Alamoti | Centre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| F.Lussick | Hooker | 4 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 3 |
| L.Henry | Prop | 4 | — | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 / 2 |
Wests Tigers — Try Scoring
15Wests Tigers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Doueihi | Halfback | 8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 / 4 |
| J.Skelton | Wing | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 / 3 |
| Ta.May | Centre | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 3 |
| L.Laulili'i | Wing | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 / 1 |
| J.Bula | Fullback | 6 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| S.Turuva | Wing | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 1 |
| Sa.Fainu | Second Row | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 / 1 |
| F.Tavana | Interchange | 4 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
| J.Luai | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 0 |
| K.Pearce-Paul | Second Row | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Panthers (vs Wests Tigers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.48 | 2.57 | 2.52 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.91 | 1.13 | 1.02 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.50 LOW |
| Attacking Wests Tigers (vs Panthers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.30 | 1.13 | 1.22 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.96 | 0.74 | 0.85 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.59 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.48 | 0.17 | 0.33 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Panthers Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.52/game (Panthers backs score 2.48/game; Wests Tigers concede to the backs at 2.57/game).
Panthers locked for top 2, chasing the minor premiership on point differential. The R14 demolition (68-0) at this venue looms large.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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