Titans v Dolphins
SavvyPlays · Friday 04 September 2026 · Cbus Super Stadium · 6:00pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Titans n=23, Dolphins n=23). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Titans — 87% Best 17 (DS 3.3) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | Fullback | 22 | -8.2 |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | Wing | 8 | -5.8 |
| 3 | Jaylan De Groot | Centre | 5 | -5.6 |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | Centre | 20 | -7.5 |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | Wing | 22 | -7.9 |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | Five-Eighth | 20 | -6.5 |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | Halfback | 11 | -8.9 |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | Prop | 22 | -8.1 |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | Hooker | 3 | -6.7 |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | Prop | 19 | -7.5 |
| 11 | Kurtis Morrin | Second Row | 20 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | Second Row | 21 | -7.6 |
| 13 | Chris Randall | Lock | 19 | -5.1 |
| 14 | Klese Haas | Interchange | 21 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Cooper Bai | Interchange | 21 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Bodhi Sharpley | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Verrills | Interchange | 12 | -5.8 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Max Feagai (new this round), Jojo Fifita (new this round). Long-term (1): Jaimin Jolliffe (23wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Dolphins — 94% Best 17 (DS 2.6) — Squad avg ±/G: +5.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Fullback | 17 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | Wing | 22 | +6.1 |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | Centre | 11 | +17.5 |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | Centre | 21 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | Wing | 6 | -1.2 |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 18 | +4.9 |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | Halfback | 17 | +8.9 |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | Prop | 17 | -5.3 |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 14 | +9.4 |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | Prop | 21 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Max Plath | Second Row | 17 | +11.2 |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 21 | +4.8 |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | Lock | 21 | +1.6 |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | Interchange | 14 | +7.4 |
| 15 | Ray Stone | Interchange | 17 | +10.1 |
| 16 | Francis Molo | Interchange | 18 | -4.0 |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | Interchange | 18 | +2.8 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Selwyn Cobbo (new this round). Long-term (1): Daniel Saifiti (23wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Titans — Recent Form
12Titans — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R26 | Rabbitohs | H | 22-42 | L | -20 | +11.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 2026 R25 | Sharks | H | 22-30 | L | -8 | +8.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Knights | A | 26-36 | L | -10 | +12.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R23 | Cowboys | H | 8-30 | L | -22 | +4.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 2026 R22 | Warriors | H | 6-42 | L | -36 | +4.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
Dolphins — Recent Form
13Dolphins — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R26 | Roosters | A | 26-12 | W | +14 | +5.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Eels | H | 34-16 | W | +18 | -15.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Sea Eagles | A | 22-0 | W | +22 | -11.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Broncos | H | 40-32 | W | +8 | -9.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Dragons | A | 28-22 | W | +6 | -15.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
Titans — Try Scoring
14Titans — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Sami | Wing | 15 | — | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 / 6 |
| J.Campbell | Five-Eighth | 10 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 / 10 |
| J.Fifita | Centre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 / 2 |
| A.Hau | Interchange | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 / 3 |
| K.Morrin | Second Row | 7 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 5 |
| O.Pascoe | Hooker | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 / 1 |
| S.Faeamani | Wing | 5 | — | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 / 4 |
| A.Brimson | Centre | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 / 2 |
| B.Fermor | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 / 3 |
| K.Kini | Fullback | 3 | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 / 3 |
Dolphins — Try Scoring
15Dolphins — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Isaako | Wing | 21 | — | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 12 / 9 |
| S.Cobbo | Wing | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 / 9 |
| H.Farnworth | Centre | 12 | — | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 / 4 |
| H.Tabuai-Fidow | Fullback | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 / 4 |
| J.Averillo | Interchange | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 3 |
| C.Lemuelu | Second Row | 6 | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Bostock | Centre | 5 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 / 2 |
| K.Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 4 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 2 |
| M.Plath | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 2 |
| K.Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 0 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Titans (vs Dolphins defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.70 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.85 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.65 | 0.74 | 0.70 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.48 | 0.30 | 0.39 LOW |
| Attacking Dolphins (vs Titans defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.39 | 2.61 | 2.50 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.96 | 1.22 | 1.09 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.83 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.50 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Dolphins Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.50/game (Dolphins backs score 2.39/game; Titans concede to the backs at 2.61/game).
Dolphins locked for finals but still chasing top-2 seeding. Their 100% record at Cbus and 4-game H2H dominance make this the second-most predictable game of the round.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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