NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
@
Home
NYG
New York Giants
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Spread
NYG +2.5
Total
44.5
ARI ML
$1.83
NYG ML
$2.20
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
ARIRating -4.0
Off EPA/play
+0.079
Def EPA/play
+0.152
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.25
+.20
-.08
+.14
-.14
+.05
+.09
+.02
-.19
-.05
-.02
+.07
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.07
+.03
+.21
+.04
+.36
+.16
-.11
-.04
-.01
+.02
-.05
+.02
+.14
NYGRating -3.8
Off EPA/play
+0.049
Def EPA/play
+0.118
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.07
-.39
-.29
-.02
+.10
-.05
+.08
+.06
+.13
-.13
-.02
+.05
-.09
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.08
+.01
-.14
+.03
+.18
+.10
+.08
-.04
-.01
-.03
+.04
+.11
+.09
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYG offence vs ARI
short-middle passing
+0.46 EPA/play
ARI offence vs NYG
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
ARI offence vs NYG
short-left passing
+0.17 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYG)
Open +1 → Now +2.5·Move +1.5
AU best
NYG +3 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best (other side)
ARI -1.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
NYG +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 45.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.85 FanDuel
AU best ARI ML
$1.83 PointsBet (AU)
AU best NYG ML
$2.20 TAB
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
New York Giants: Jameis Winston is the confirmed starter, but a supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment is unavailable. Rating withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Jameis Winston is the confirmed New York Giants starter, but a supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment is unavailable, so this game remains unrated.
With no published model margin or total, selections and edges are withheld for both markets. This is a model-support issue, not an open personnel question.
Why · New York Giants: Jameis Winston confirmed starter; supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment unavailable
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
NYG · 0 dropbacks
Jameis Winston
Confirmed starter; supported Winston-for-Dart adjustment unavailable.
ARI offence vs NYG coverage
| Shell | NYG usage | ARI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (191 snaps) | +0.09 (146 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.05 (219 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (94 snaps) | +0.00 (171 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 15% (92 snaps) | -0.12 (81 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYG man coverage 40% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
NYG offence vs ARI coverage
| Shell | ARI usage | NYG EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.38 (172 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (129 snaps) | -0.23 (133 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (107 snaps) | +0.06 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (83 snaps) | -0.08 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (58 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
ARI man coverage 28% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
ARI tendencies
Play action rate15% · — vs +0.15 EPA (19 snaps)
RPO rate2% (3 snaps)
Screen rate6% (7 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (32 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (43 snaps)
NYG tendencies
Play action rate26% · — vs -0.11 EPA (24 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate5% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.05 (25 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:46 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2