← Back to NFL
NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
@
Home
SF
San Francisco 49ers
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 6:05am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 4:05pm ET
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Spread
SF -8.5
Total
47.5
ARI ML
$4.60
SF ML
$1.26
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm

Power Comparison

ARIRating -4.9
Off EPA/play
+0.037
Def EPA/play
+0.126
Exp points
19.0
Offence by zone
-.14
+.06
-.07
+.14
-.25
-.02
+.04
-.02
-.16
-.07
-.04
+.02
-.11
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.03
+.01
+.00
-.01
+.26
+.18
-.11
-.02
-.04
-.02
-.05
+.08
+.11
SFRating +4.5
Off EPA/play
+0.153
Def EPA/play
+0.072
Exp points
31.6
Offence by zone
+.01
+.51
+.05
+.19
+.10
+.04
+.14
+.06
-.01
+.07
-.11
+.01
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.06
+.04
-.07
+.14
-.30
-.04
-.01
-.08
+.07
+.13
+.06
-.07
-.09
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

ARI offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.28 EPA/play
SF offence vs ARI
deep-middle passing
+0.51 EPA/play
SF offence vs ARI
short-middle passing
+0.35 EPA/play

Market

Spread (SF)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU best
SF -7.5 @ $1.98 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
ARI +8.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
Global best
SF -7.5 @ $1.98 Dabble AU
Total
Open 47.5 → Now 47.8·Move +0.2Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 48.0 @ $1.90 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 26.5 @ $1.02 Courtside
AU best ARI ML
$4.60 SportsBet
AU best SF ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: SF -7.5
Model SF +12.6 · total 50.6
Spread · Analysis
SF -7.5
$1.98 Dabble AU
Edge +5.1EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 47.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.1PASS

San Francisco is favoured at -7.5 with Dabble AU (1.98), and the model's margin of 12.6 points puts the gap at 5.1, short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so this sits as an edge noted, not a lean, on San Francisco. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.9 points for Brock Purdy, and blends last season's form with the market's post-offseason view of both teams, scaled by roster continuity; the 2026 sample is still small at 3,666 plays across weeks 1 and 2 and remains mostly outweighed by last season and the market. On last season's charting, Purdy's clean-pocket EPA of 0.446 dwarfs his -0.448 mark under pressure, fitting the model's read on San Francisco's passing game. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 2.

The total sits at 47.5, and the model's 50.6 projection gives a 3.1-point edge, a pass. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Why · SF deep-middle passing (+0.51 EPA/play vs ARI)
Hand adjustments · SF Brock Purdy +0.9 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SF defence: pressure 23% · blitz 22%
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ARI defence: pressure 26% · blitz 28%
ARI offence vs SF coverage
ShellSF usageARI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (201 snaps)+0.05 (219 snaps)+0.06
Cover 121% (130 snaps)+0.09 (146 snaps)+0.06
Cover 217% (110 snaps)+0.00 (171 snaps)0.00
Cover 414% (88 snaps)-0.12 (81 snaps)+0.07
Cover 69% (55 snaps)—-0.03
SF man coverage 25% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
SF offence vs ARI coverage
ShellARI usageSF EPA/dbLeague
Cover 326% (160 snaps)+0.24 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (129 snaps)+0.13 (152 snaps)0.00
Cover 117% (107 snaps)+0.05 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 413% (83 snaps)+0.28 (64 snaps)+0.07
Cover 69% (58 snaps)+0.07 (43 snaps)-0.03
2-Man7% (45 snaps)—+0.07
ARI man coverage 28% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
ARI tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.01 vs +0.03 EPA (184 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate8% (61 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / 28% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (251 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (157 snaps)
SF tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.15 vs +0.17 EPA (140 snaps)
RPO rate1% (7 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / 22% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (322 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (61 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:10 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2