NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
@
Home
NO
New Orleans Saints
Kick-off
Tue 6 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 5 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Caesars Superdome
Spread
NO -2.5
Total
47.5
ATL ML
$2.30
NO ML
$1.70
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
ATLRating -3.8
Off EPA/play
+0.001
Def EPA/play
+0.070
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.25
-.24
-.07
+.15
-.31
-.43
-.06
+.06
+.09
-.05
+.04
-.08
+.04
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.03
+.16
-.15
-.04
.00
+.03
-.02
+.00
-.05
+.10
-.22
+.03
-.03
NORating +0.8
Off EPA/play
+0.101
Def EPA/play
+0.087
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.12
+.14
+.17
-.11
-.03
+.12
+.01
+.02
-.00
+.12
-.01
-.01
-.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.07
+.03
-.01
+.16
-.09
-.07
+.01
+.04
+.03
-.06
-.15
+.19
+.04
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
ATL offence vs NO
short-left passing
+0.31 EPA/play
NO offence vs ATL
inside runs
+0.22 EPA/play
NO offence vs ATL
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NO)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU best
NO -2.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
ATL +3 @ $1.77 PlayUp
Global best
NO -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 47.8·Move -0.8Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 48.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best ATL ML
$2.30 PointsBet (AU)
AU best NO ML
$1.70 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. is the confirmed starter, but a supported Penix return adjustment is unavailable. Rating withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Michael Penix Jr. is the confirmed Atlanta Falcons starter, but a supported Penix return adjustment is unavailable, so this game remains unrated.
With no published model margin or total, selections and edges are withheld for both markets. This is a model-support issue, not an open personnel question.
Why · Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. confirmed starter; supported Penix return adjustment unavailable
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Confirmed starter; supported Penix return adjustment unavailable.
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ATL defence: pressure 31% · blitz —
ATL offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | ATL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | -0.06 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | -0.13 (136 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | +0.17 (140 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | +0.17 (56 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
NO offence vs ATL coverage
| Shell | ATL usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (176 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (159 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (99 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
ATL man coverage 33% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
ATL tendencies
Play action rate19% · — vs -0.49 EPA (17 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate18% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / — / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.35 (25 snaps)
NO tendencies
Play action rate16% · — vs +0.00 EPA (24 snaps)
RPO rate4% (8 snaps)
Screen rate3% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / — / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.12 (36 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (35 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:46 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2