NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
@
Home
NO
New Orleans Saints
Kick-off
Tue 6 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 5 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Caesars Superdome
Spread
NO -2.5
Total
47.5
ATL ML
$2.30
NO ML
$1.70
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
ATLRating -3.8
Off EPA/play
+0.001
Def EPA/play
+0.070
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.25
-.24
-.07
+.15
-.31
-.43
-.06
+.06
+.09
-.05
+.04
-.08
+.04
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.03
+.16
-.15
-.04
.00
+.03
-.02
+.00
-.05
+.10
-.22
+.03
-.03
NORating +0.8
Off EPA/play
+0.101
Def EPA/play
+0.087
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.12
+.14
+.17
-.11
-.03
+.12
+.01
+.02
-.00
+.12
-.01
-.01
-.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.07
+.03
-.01
+.16
-.09
-.07
+.01
+.04
+.03
-.06
-.15
+.19
+.04
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
ATL offence vs NO
short-left passing
+0.31 EPA/play
NO offence vs ATL
inside runs
+0.22 EPA/play
NO offence vs ATL
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NO)
Open -2.5 → Now -2.5·Move 0.0
AU best
NO -2.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
ATL +3 @ $1.77 PlayUp
Global best
NO -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 47.8·Move -0.8Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 48.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 47.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best ATL ML
$2.30 PointsBet (AU)
AU best NO ML
$1.70 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. is the confirmed starter, but a supported Penix return adjustment is unavailable. Rating withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Michael Penix Jr. is the confirmed Atlanta Falcons starter, but a supported Penix return adjustment is unavailable, so this game remains unrated.
With no published model margin or total, selections and edges are withheld for both markets. This is a model-support issue, not an open personnel question.
Why · Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. confirmed starter; supported Penix return adjustment unavailable
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Confirmed starter; supported Penix return adjustment unavailable.
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ATL defence: pressure 31% · blitz —
ATL offence vs NO coverage
| Shell | NO usage | ATL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | -0.06 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | -0.13 (136 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | +0.17 (140 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | +0.17 (56 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
NO man coverage 22% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
NO offence vs ATL coverage
| Shell | ATL usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (176 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (159 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (99 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
ATL man coverage 33% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
ATL tendencies
Play action rate19% · — vs -0.49 EPA (17 snaps)
RPO rate3% (5 snaps)
Screen rate18% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / — / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.35 (25 snaps)
NO tendencies
Play action rate16% · — vs +0.00 EPA (24 snaps)
RPO rate4% (8 snaps)
Screen rate3% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / — / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.12 (36 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (35 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:46 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2