NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
@
Home
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 11:20am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 8:20pm ET
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Spread
ATL -3.5
Total
43.5
BAL ML
$2.50
ATL ML
$1.57
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
BALRating +7.0
Off EPA/play
+0.155
Def EPA/play
+0.027
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.26
-.01
+.25
+.15
+.32
-.03
-.00
-.04
-.09
-.14
+.14
+.10
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.30
+.22
+.01
-.03
-.38
-.08
+.04
-.11
+.13
-.01
-.14
-.05
-.16
ATLRating +2.8
Off EPA/play
+0.064
Def EPA/play
+0.013
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.23
+.02
-.02
+.24
-.39
-.51
+.10
+.18
+.01
+.04
+.10
+.03
+.14
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.17
+.17
-.30
+.07
-.09
-.23
-.18
-.30
-.10
+.15
-.25
+.01
-.03
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
ATL offence vs BAL
deep-left passing
+0.53 EPA/play
BAL offence vs ATL
deep-left passing
+0.43 EPA/play
ATL offence vs BAL
short-left passing
+0.21 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ATL)
Open +2.5 → Now -3.5·Move -6.0
AU best
ATL -3 @ $1.82 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
BAL +4.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best
ATL -3 @ $1.83 theScore Bet
Total
Open 45.5 → Now 43.5·Move -2.0Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 44.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.92 betPARX
AU best BAL ML
$2.50 Unibet
AU best ATL ML
$1.57 Bet Right
11 AU books · 32 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
ATL: Confirmed starter: Michael Penix Jr. The model has no supported Penix return adjustment; both markets are unrated. BAL: Lamar Jackson did not practise on Wednesday after an ankle injury; his availability for Atlanta remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative and the model has no supported replacement adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Atlanta's confirmed starting quarterback is Michael Penix Jr., but a supported adjustment for his return is unavailable, so the model cannot price this game. Baltimore also has unresolved availability: Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice after an ankle injury, and the alternative, Tyler Huntley, has no supported replacement adjustment. Both markets are unrated. Penix's starter status is settled; the missing model adjustment is a separate issue.
Baltimore's team power rating is 7.0 against Atlanta's 2.8, providing background rather than a projection for these quarterback circumstances. Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey also missed practice for Baltimore, while Atlanta's Jake Matthews was absent with a groin injury. Those practice reports are not final game-status designations. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · Confirmed starter: Michael Penix Jr. The model has no supported Penix return adjustment; both markets are unrated. Lamar Jackson did not practise on Wednesday after an ankle injury; his availability for Atlanta remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative and the model has no supported replacement adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
BAL · 0 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson did not practise on Wednesday after an ankle injury; his availability for Atlanta remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative and the model has no supported replacement adjustment; both markets are unrated.
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Confirmed starter: Michael Penix Jr. The model has no supported Penix return adjustment; both markets are unrated.
BAL offence vs ATL coverage
| Shell | ATL usage | BAL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (176 snaps) | +0.20 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (159 snaps) | -0.22 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (99 snaps) | -0.21 (97 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.34 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
ATL man coverage 33% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
ATL offence vs BAL coverage
| Shell | BAL usage | ATL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (217 snaps) | -0.06 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (170 snaps) | -0.13 (136 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (131 snaps) | +0.17 (140 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (53 snaps) | +0.17 (56 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (42 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
BAL man coverage 32% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
BAL tendencies
Play action rate30% · — vs +0.34 EPA (36 snaps)
RPO rate6% (13 snaps)
Screen rate6% (7 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 31% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.04 (60 snaps) · neutral -0.02 (31 snaps)
ATL tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs -0.42 EPA (25 snaps)
RPO rate2% (5 snaps)
Screen rate18% (20 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 23% / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.41 (35 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (26 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:06 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2