NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
@
Home
CLE
Cleveland Browns
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Huntington Bank Field
Spread
CLE +5
Total
42.5
BAL ML
$1.42
CLE ML
$3.05
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am

Power Comparison

BALRating +5.5
Off EPA/play
+0.154
Def EPA/play
+0.053
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.06
-.04
+.35
+.21
+.04
+.16
+.00
-.04
+.04
-.01
+.17
+.08
+.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.32
-.01
+.30
-.19
-.16
+.16
-.10
-.17
+.04
+.01
-.19
-.05
-.21
CLERating +0.5
Off EPA/play
+0.067
Def EPA/play
+0.059
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.20
-.33
-.05
-.07
+.02
+.27
-.11
-.04
-.02
-.17
-.01
-.02
-.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.10
-.05
-.44
-.02
-.02
-.12
+.12
+.04
+.22
+.01
+.12
+.08
-.15
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

CLE offence vs BAL
short-right passing
+0.44 EPA/play
CLE offence vs BAL
deep-left passing
+0.52 EPA/play
BAL offence vs CLE
runs off right end
+0.29 EPA/play

Market

Spread (CLE)
Open +4.5 → Now +5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best
CLE +6.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
BAL -4.5 @ $1.87 SportsBet
Global best
CLE +6.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Total
Open 41.5 → Now 42.5·Move +1.0Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 42.0 @ $1.91 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 42.5 @ $1.96 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 42.0 @ $1.91 BetRivers
AU best BAL ML
$1.42 SportsBet
AU best CLE ML
$3.05 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
BAL: Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice with an ankle injury. His availability remains unresolved, with Tyler Huntley the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Lamar Jackson's quarterback availability remains unresolved after he missed Wednesday practice with an ankle injury, so there is no rating basis for either market. Tyler Huntley is the alternative. Baltimore's stronger offensive team-history profile cannot be presented as a forecast specifically for either starter, and the model does not automatically replace Jackson's historical contributions if Huntley plays.

The football matchup still offers clear pressure points. Cleveland's short-right passing area is favourable against Baltimore in the model, giving Deshaun Watson a possible route to move the chains without relying entirely on deep throws. Protection is the concern: Tytus Howard and Teven Jenkins missed practice, while several Baltimore offensive linemen were limited on the other side. Cleveland also had Mason Graham, Mike Hall Jr. and Maliek Collins absent, which could weaken its interior resistance if those problems persist. Those Wednesday reports describe uncertainty, not confirmed Sunday absences. Baltimore's run game could benefit from that defensive depletion, but neither spread nor total receives a published rating while Jackson's status remains unsettled.

Why · Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice with an ankle injury. His availability remains unresolved, with Tyler Huntley the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.

Situational

2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
BAL · 0 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice with an ankle injury. His availability remains unresolved, with Tyler Huntley the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 32%
BAL offence vs CLE coverage
ShellCLE usageBAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 135% (195 snaps)+0.20 (132 snaps)+0.06
Cover 327% (153 snaps)-0.22 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 220% (114 snaps)-0.21 (97 snaps)0.00
CLE man coverage 41% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
CLE offence vs BAL coverage
ShellBAL usageCLE EPA/dbLeague
Cover 331% (217 snaps)-0.35 (169 snaps)+0.06
Cover 124% (170 snaps)-0.27 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 219% (131 snaps)-0.26 (146 snaps)0.00
Cover 48% (53 snaps)-0.08 (64 snaps)+0.07
Cover 06% (42 snaps)—+0.10
Cover 66% (40 snaps)—-0.03
BAL man coverage 32% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
BAL tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.41 vs +0.17 EPA (43 snaps)
RPO rate5% (15 snaps)
Screen rate6% (10 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 32% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (69 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (45 snaps)
CLE tendencies
Play action rate18% · — vs +0.10 EPA (34 snaps)
RPO rate8% (23 snaps)
Screen rate11% (21 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 25% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (78 snaps) · neutral +0.13 (42 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2