NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
@
Home
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
Maracana Stadium
Spread
DAL +3.5
Total
52.5
BAL ML
$1.58
DAL ML
$2.50
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
BALRating +4.6
Off EPA/play
+0.158
Def EPA/play
+0.074
Exp points
29.9
Offence by zone
+.44
-.02
+.08
+.14
+.02
-.10
+.23
+.06
+.06
+.05
+.15
+.10
-.00
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.07
+.19
+.11
+.04
-.10
-.03
-.08
+.04
-.03
+.03
-.04
-.07
+.05
DALRating -0.8
Off EPA/play
+0.150
Def EPA/play
+0.164
Exp points
28.4
Offence by zone
-.03
+.12
+.13
+.20
+.12
+.05
-.07
+.06
-.01
+.01
-.05
+.07
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.04
+.05
-.00
+.25
+.23
+.06
+.02
-.06
-.07
+.08
+.05
+.07
+.04
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
BAL offence vs DAL
short-left passing
+0.39 EPA/play
BAL offence vs DAL
deep-left passing
+0.48 EPA/play
DAL offence vs BAL
short-left passing
+0.24 EPA/play
Market
Spread (DAL)
Open +3 → Now +3.5·Move +0.5
AU best
DAL +3.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)
BAL -3 @ $1.80 PlayUp
Global best
DAL +3.5 @ $1.91 DraftKings
Total
Open 52.5 → Now 52.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 52.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 53.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 52.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
AU best BAL ML
$1.58 Unibet
AU best DAL ML
$2.50 Ladbrokes
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 52
Model DAL -1.5 · total 58.2Spread · Analysis
DAL +3.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 52
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +6.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The primary market here is the total, and the model only notes it rather than tipping it: Over 52 at PlayUp (1.87) shows a 6.2-point edge against the model's 58.2-point projection, short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5, so it stays a NOTED gap with no play attached. The model's early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread and 0-0 on totals through week 2. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both rosters, scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample of 3,666 plays league-wide still small. Part of the total's lean comes from Baltimore's short-left passing grading at +0.39 EPA/play against Dallas, the Cowboys' weakest zone.
On the spread, Dallas +3.5 at PointsBet (1.9) shows just a 2.0-point edge against the model's -1.5 margin, well under the threshold, so this is a pass with no side worth arguing for.
Why · BAL short-left passing (+0.39 EPA/play vs DAL, DAL's weakest zone)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
BAL · 338 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.35 (229 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.67 (109 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DAL defence: pressure 32% · blitz 28%
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 24%
BAL offence vs DAL coverage
| Shell | DAL usage | BAL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (184 snaps) | -0.22 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (157 snaps) | -0.21 (97 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (134 snaps) | +0.20 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (80 snaps) | +0.34 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
DAL man coverage 25% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
DAL offence vs BAL coverage
| Shell | BAL usage | DAL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (217 snaps) | +0.16 (145 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (170 snaps) | +0.38 (142 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (131 snaps) | -0.04 (156 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (53 snaps) | +0.26 (100 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (42 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
BAL man coverage 32% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
BAL tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.26 vs -0.05 EPA (112 snaps)
RPO rate6% (53 snaps)
Screen rate7% (35 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 24% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (206 snaps) · neutral +0.04 (129 snaps) · heavy +0.03 (43 snaps)
DAL tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.27 vs +0.12 EPA (183 snaps)
RPO rate5% (58 snaps)
Screen rate6% (39 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (216 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (147 snaps) · heavy -0.01 (29 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2