NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
BUF
Buffalo Bills
@
Home
LA
Los Angeles Rams
Kick-off
Tue 13 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 12 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Spread
LA -3
Total
54.5
BUF ML
$2.40
LA ML
$1.62
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
BUFRating +0.6
Off EPA/play
+0.192
Def EPA/play
+0.181
Exp points
22.2
Offence by zone
-.21
+.41
+.39
+.33
-.26
-.00
-.26
+.29
+.08
+.14
+.33
+.01
+.20
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.17
-.35
+.19
+.08
+.21
+.15
+.20
-.01
-.10
+.12
+.02
+.08
+.09
LARating +8.1
Off EPA/play
+0.112
Def EPA/play
-0.035
Exp points
32.2
Offence by zone
-.25
-.06
-.13
+.07
+.07
+.05
+.01
-.01
+.12
+.06
-.01
-.10
+.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.17
-.26
-.26
-.37
-.05
+.00
-.14
+.05
+.01
-.11
-.20
+.07
+.01
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
BUF offence vs LA
runs behind left guard
+0.33 EPA/play
LA offence vs BUF
short-right passing
+0.21 EPA/play
LA offence vs BUF
short-middle passing
+0.28 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LA)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU best
LA -2.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
BUF +3.5 @ $1.83 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
LA -2.5 @ $1.80 ReBet
Total
Open 54.5 → Now 54.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 54.0 @ $1.91 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 54.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 54.0 @ $1.91 PlayUp
AU best BUF ML
$2.40 PointsBet (AU)
AU best LA ML
$1.62 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Lean: LA -2.5
Model LA +10.0 · total 54.4Spread · Analysis
LA -2.5
$1.80 Dabble AU
Edge +7.5LEAN
Total · Analysis
Over 54
$1.91 PlayUp
Edge +0.4PASS
The spread is a LEAN towards the Rams -2.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 1.8. The model projects a 10.0-point Rams win, giving that specific offer a 7.5-point edge, below the 10-point recommendation threshold. Short-right passing is the main matchup advantage, at +0.21 EPA per play against Buffalo. Over 54 at PlayUp has only a 0.4-point edge and is a PASS.
Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford remain the listed starters. The Monday game's practice reports were not yet available at review. Jaylen Watson and Aaron Donald could return for the Rams, subject to practice, while Terrance Ferguson is on injured reserve; those developments have no new numerical adjustment. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · LA short-right passing (+0.21 EPA/play vs BUF)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
BUF · 506 dropbacks
Josh Allen
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.34 (379 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (127 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LA defence: pressure 32% · blitz 33%
LA · 617 dropbacks
Matthew Stafford
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.41 (468 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.33 (149 snaps)
Pressure rate faced24%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BUF defence: pressure 34% · blitz 33%
BUF offence vs LA coverage
| Shell | LA usage | BUF EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 28% (184 snaps) | +0.17 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 24% (160 snaps) | +0.21 (121 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (116 snaps) | +0.12 (198 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (75 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (52 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
LA man coverage 26% · BUF vs man +0.13, vs zone +0.24
LA offence vs BUF coverage
| Shell | BUF usage | LA EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 26% (138 snaps) | +0.24 (114 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (119 snaps) | +0.26 (166 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (91 snaps) | +0.09 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 11% (58 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (58 snaps) | +0.34 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
BUF man coverage 31% · LA vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.28
BUF tendencies
Play action rate29% · +0.17 vs +0.31 EPA (40 snaps)
RPO rate7% (17 snaps)
Screen rate7% (9 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 12%, 22 12%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 33% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.05 (34 snaps) · neutral -0.07 (48 snaps)
LA tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs +0.12 EPA (38 snaps)
RPO rate— (0 snaps)
Screen rate5% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 60%, 13 31%, 12 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 33% / 26%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (48 snaps) · neutral -0.17 (42 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:06 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2