NFL 2026 · Week 2
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
CARRating -3.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
ATLRating -1.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
ATL offence vs CAR
short-middle passing
+0.26 EPA/play
CAR offence vs ATL
runs off right tackle
+0.15 EPA/play
ATL offence vs CAR
short-left passing
+0.07 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ATL)
Open +1 → Now +2.5·Move +1.5
AU bestATL +3 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best (other side)CAR -1.5 @ $1.85 SportsBet
Global bestATL +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Total
Open 44.0 → Now 43.5·Move -0.5
AU best overOver 43.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 44.0 @ $1.93 PlayUp
Global best overOver 38.5 @ $1.41 Courtside
AU best CAR ML
$1.74 SportsBet
10 AU books · 32 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
ATL: W1 was played by Rush (Tua ruled out in warmups with an oblique injury, not practising Wednesday; Penix still in ACL rehab with no confirmed return; Stefanski has not named a W2 starter and will not rule out UDFA rookie Jack Strand). The week-1 Tua-basis +0.5 never applied. UNPRICEABLE pending a named starter: no numeric override until one is announced and Shaun signs off on the value.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Atlanta's quarterback situation is the whole story here. Tua was ruled out in warmups in Week 1 with an oblique injury and did not practise Wednesday, Penix remains in ACL rehab with no confirmed return, and Rush started Week 1 while coach Stefanski has yet to name a Week 2 starter, refusing to rule out UDFA rookie Jack Strand seeing the field. The model's margin (3.9) and total (44.5) exist only as context; with the passer unresolved the model has no rating basis for this game, and the usual approach of blending last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason anchor and roster continuity cannot be applied without knowing who is throwing the ball.
The market currently has Atlanta at 2.5 at home, with the best Australian price at TAB (ATL +3.0 at 1.85), and Over 43.5 the best total price at PointsBet (AU) at 1.90, but neither number reflects a genuine read on the Falcons' offence until a starter is confirmed. The situation to watch is simply the official Week 2 starter availability update from Atlanta.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (ATL)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CAR · 506 dropbacks
Bryce Young
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.13 (353 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.44 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ATL defence: pressure 31% · blitz 35%
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
CAR offence vs ATL coverage
| Shell | ATL usage | CAR EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (176 snaps) | +0.01 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (159 snaps) | -0.07 (163 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.07 (125 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.16 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
ATL man coverage 33% · CAR vs man -0.12, vs zone +0.00
ATL offence vs CAR coverage
| Shell | CAR usage | ATL EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 33% (187 snaps) | -0.06 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (123 snaps) | +0.17 (140 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (104 snaps) | -0.13 (136 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (78 snaps) | +0.17 (56 snaps) | +0.07 |
CAR man coverage 22% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
CAR tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.10 vs -0.06 EPA (128 snaps)
RPO rate10% (101 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 67%, 12 21%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man22% / 26% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.02 (229 snaps) · neutral +0.02 (187 snaps)
ATL tendencies
Play action rate20% · +0.23 vs -0.05 EPA (117 snaps)
RPO rate5% (50 snaps)
Screen rate9% (50 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 35% / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (228 snaps) · neutral -0.03 (155 snaps) · heavy -0.25 (34 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:44 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2