NFL 2026 · Week 3
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Huntington Bank Field
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
CARRating +0.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
CLERating -2.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CLE offence vs CAR
inside runs
+0.22 EPA/play
CAR offence vs CLE
short-middle passing
+0.17 EPA/play
CAR offence vs CLE
short-right passing
+0.09 EPA/play
Market
Spread (CLE)
Open +3 → Now +3·Move 0.0
AU bestCLE +3 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)CAR -2.5 @ $1.84 SportsBet
Global bestCLE +3 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 42.0 → Now 42.0·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 41.5 @ $1.85 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 42.5 @ $1.95 TAB
Global best overOver 38.5 @ $1.54 Courtside
AU best CAR ML
$1.70 Unibet
AU best CLE ML
$2.30 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: CLE +3
Model CLE +1.2 · total 43.3Spread · Analysis
CLE +3
$1.90 TAB
Edge +4.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 41.5
$1.85 SportsBet
Edge +1.8PASS
The model's primary lean sits on the spread, where Cleveland's +3 gets a small nod against the market's TAB best line of 3.0 at 1.9. That's a 4.2-point edge, which the model notes and nothing more: it's short of the Lean floor for weeks 1 to 5. The rating leans on Cleveland's inside-run advantage against Carolina, +0.22 EPA per play in that zone, and carries a hand adjustment of 0.3 points for Deshaun Watson over rookie Sanders given the uncertainty there. Early in the season the rating blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams, scaled by roster continuity, and the 2026 sample is just 3,666 plays so far, still mostly outweighed by last season and the market. The model's spread record this season sits at 1-0.
On the total, the model's 43.3 sits only marginally over the market's 41.5, an edge of just 1.8 points, and that call is a pass. On last season's charting, Cleveland's offence managed -0.352 EPA per play against Cover 3 shells, a soft number that tempers any over enthusiasm.
Why · CLE inside runs (+0.22 EPA/play vs CAR, CAR's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.3 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CAR · 506 dropbacks
Bryce Young
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.13 (353 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.44 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz 28%
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
CAR defence: pressure 22% · blitz 26%
CAR offence vs CLE coverage
| Shell | CLE usage | CAR EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (195 snaps) | +0.01 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 27% (153 snaps) | -0.07 (163 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (114 snaps) | +0.07 (125 snaps) | 0.00 |
CLE man coverage 41% · CAR vs man -0.12, vs zone +0.00
CLE offence vs CAR coverage
| Shell | CAR usage | CLE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 33% (187 snaps) | -0.35 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (123 snaps) | -0.26 (146 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (104 snaps) | -0.27 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (78 snaps) | -0.08 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
CAR man coverage 22% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
CAR tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.10 vs -0.06 EPA (128 snaps)
RPO rate10% (101 snaps)
Screen rate6% (37 snaps)
Personnel11 67%, 12 21%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man22% / 26% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.02 (229 snaps) · neutral +0.02 (187 snaps)
CLE tendencies
Play action rate22% · -0.27 vs -0.25 EPA (141 snaps)
RPO rate4% (39 snaps)
Screen rate9% (55 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 28% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (181 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (170 snaps) · heavy +0.08 (79 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:08 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2