NFL 2026 · Week 6
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PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am
Power Comparison
CARRating +4.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
PHIRating -7.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CAR offence vs PHI
short-middle passing
+0.47 EPA/play
PHI offence vs CAR
deep-right passing
+0.58 EPA/play
CAR offence vs PHI
runs behind left guard
+0.28 EPA/play
Market
Spread (PHI)
Open -1 → Now +1·Move +2.0Moved toward model
AU bestPHI +1.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)CAR +1.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global bestPHI +1.5 @ $1.88 Caesars
Total
Open 41.5 → Now 39.5·Move -2.0Moved toward model
AU best overOver 39.5 @ $1.95 TAB
AU best underUnder 40.0 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best overOver 39.5 @ $1.95 TAB
AU best PHI ML
$1.97 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots
The Call
Lean: CAR +1.5
Model PHI -9.7 · total 39.6Spread · Analysis
CAR +1.5
$1.90 TAB
Edge +11.2LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 40
$1.91 TABtouch
Edge +0.4PASS
Carolina's stronger offensive profile is the main reason the model disagrees with Philadelphia's position in the market. The Panthers' short-middle passing matchup offers Bryce Young a practical route to keep drives moving. Philadelphia can respond down the right side with deeper throws, but that route asks more of an offense whose overall model output has been much weaker.
The availability picture also puts pressure on the Eagles. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith missed Wednesday practice with hamstring-related injuries. If either is unavailable, Philadelphia would lose an important way to turn ordinary possessions into scoring opportunities. Jalen Hurts participated fully with a calf listing. Carolina also has an offensive-line concern after Monroe Freeling missed practice, although Taylor Moton and Young participated fully. These reports are context, with no new numerical adjustment. CAR +1.5 at TAB, priced at 1.90, has an 11.2-point model gap but remains LEAN: the existing policy keeps away selections as analysis regardless of size. The total is PASS. Neither market is a formal recommendation.
Why · CAR short-middle passing (+0.47 EPA/play vs PHI)
Situational
2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CAR · 506 dropbacks
Bryce Young
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.13 (353 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.44 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz 23%
PHI · 486 dropbacks
Jalen Hurts
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.33 (351 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.66 (135 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CAR defence: pressure 22% · blitz 36%
CAR offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | CAR EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.01 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | -0.07 (163 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | +0.07 (125 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.16 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · CAR vs man -0.12, vs zone +0.00
PHI offence vs CAR coverage
| Shell | CAR usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 33% (187 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 22% (123 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (104 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (78 snaps) | -0.09 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
CAR man coverage 22% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
CAR tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.17 vs +0.25 EPA (47 snaps)
RPO rate11% (30 snaps)
Screen rate5% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 67%, 12 21%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man22% / 36% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.14 (50 snaps) · neutral -0.24 (45 snaps)
PHI tendencies
Play action rate19% · — vs -0.03 EPA (35 snaps)
RPO rate7% (19 snaps)
Screen rate4% (8 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 23% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.05 (83 snaps) · neutral +0.03 (43 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2