Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
Chicago's quarterback choice remains unresolved, leaving no rating basis for this matchup under the current policy. Caleb Williams was estimated as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough, but Ben Johnson has not chosen between Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. Michael Penix Jr. practised fully after his rib injury and is expected to start for Atlanta if his recovery continues as planned; the existing unsupported return adjustment also remains a limitation.
Atlanta's deep-right passing matchup is favourable in the team-history data, but its practical opportunity depends on Penix's health and protection. Chicago's defensive front is weakened by Montez Sweat's suspension and Dayo Odeyingbo's quad problem, while T.J. Edwards also missed practice. That could make it harder to disrupt Atlanta before routes develop. Chicago has a potential route through inside runs, although Kyle Monangai's absence from practice complicates that option. Atlanta cornerback C.J. Henderson also missed practice. Both markets are UNRATED; the historical team profiles remain descriptive and cannot price the unresolved quarterback situations.
Situational
| Shell | ATL usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (176 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (159 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (99 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (99 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Shell | CHI usage | ATL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | -0.13 (136 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | +0.17 (140 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | -0.06 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
Tracked Bets
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