NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
CHI
Chicago Bears
@
Home
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Spread
ATL +1.5
Total
50.5
CHI ML
$1.90
ATL ML
$2.07
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am

Power Comparison

CHIRating +0.2
Off EPA/play
+0.053
Def EPA/play
+0.050
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.17
-.56
-.41
-.05
+.21
-.22
+.09
-.29
+.17
+.14
-.03
+.18
-.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.07
+.50
+.17
-.16
-.15
-.20
+.01
-.04
+.06
+.09
+.05
+.09
+.22
ATLRating +1.5
Off EPA/play
+0.064
Def EPA/play
+0.037
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.29
-.16
+.33
+.16
-.25
-.33
+.03
+.14
-.15
+.07
+.11
+.01
+.13
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.12
+.15
-.27
+.12
-.48
-.07
-.12
-.32
+.05
+.28
-.21
+.01
-.03
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

ATL offence vs CHI
deep-right passing
+0.50 EPA/play
CHI offence vs ATL
inside runs
+0.41 EPA/play
ATL offence vs CHI
runs off right tackle
+0.35 EPA/play

Market

Spread (ATL)
Open +3.5 → Now +1.5·Move -2.0Moved toward model
AU best
ATL +1.5 @ $1.95 Unibet
AU best (other side)
CHI -0.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
ATL +2 @ $1.88 BetRivers
Total
Open 49.0 → Now 51.0·Move +2.0
AU best over
Over 50.5 @ $1.88 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 51.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Global best over
Over 50.5 @ $1.89 Bally Bet
AU best CHI ML
$1.90 TAB
AU best ATL ML
$2.07 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
ATL: Michael Penix Jr. practised fully after his rib injury and is expected to start if his recovery continues as planned. His availability remains conditional, and the existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment. Both market ratings are withheld. CHI: Chicago has not named its starter. Caleb Williams was estimated as a full participant Wednesday, but the choice between Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum remains unresolved. Both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Chicago's quarterback choice remains unresolved, leaving no rating basis for this matchup under the current policy. Caleb Williams was estimated as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough, but Ben Johnson has not chosen between Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. Michael Penix Jr. practised fully after his rib injury and is expected to start for Atlanta if his recovery continues as planned; the existing unsupported return adjustment also remains a limitation.

Atlanta's deep-right passing matchup is favourable in the team-history data, but its practical opportunity depends on Penix's health and protection. Chicago's defensive front is weakened by Montez Sweat's suspension and Dayo Odeyingbo's quad problem, while T.J. Edwards also missed practice. That could make it harder to disrupt Atlanta before routes develop. Chicago has a potential route through inside runs, although Kyle Monangai's absence from practice complicates that option. Atlanta cornerback C.J. Henderson also missed practice. Both markets are UNRATED; the historical team profiles remain descriptive and cannot price the unresolved quarterback situations.

Why · Michael Penix Jr. practised fully after his rib injury and is expected to start if his recovery continues as planned. His availability remains conditional, and the existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment. Both market ratings are withheld. Chicago has not named its starter. Caleb Williams was estimated as a full participant Wednesday, but the choice between Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum remains unresolved. Both market ratings are withheld.

Situational

2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CHI · 0 dropbacks
Caleb Williams / Tyson Bagent / Case Keenum
Chicago has not named its starter. Caleb Williams was estimated as a full participant Wednesday, but the choice between Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum remains unresolved. Both market ratings are withheld.
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. practised fully after his rib injury and is expected to start if his recovery continues as planned. His availability remains conditional, and the existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment. Both market ratings are withheld.
CHI offence vs ATL coverage
ShellATL usageCHI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 128% (176 snaps)+0.18 (140 snaps)+0.06
Cover 325% (159 snaps)+0.08 (214 snaps)+0.06
Cover 216% (99 snaps)-0.02 (134 snaps)0.00
Cover 416% (99 snaps)+0.21 (60 snaps)+0.07
ATL man coverage 33% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
ATL offence vs CHI coverage
ShellCHI usageATL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 131% (183 snaps)-0.13 (136 snaps)+0.06
Cover 225% (151 snaps)+0.17 (140 snaps)0.00
Cover 323% (136 snaps)-0.06 (154 snaps)+0.06
CHI man coverage 42% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
CHI tendencies
Play action rate31% · -0.03 vs +0.09 EPA (60 snaps)
RPO rate4% (16 snaps)
Screen rate9% (17 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 39% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.11 (32 snaps) · neutral +0.03 (49 snaps)
ATL tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs -0.21 EPA (37 snaps)
RPO rate2% (7 snaps)
Screen rate16% (24 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 27% / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.31 (47 snaps) · neutral +0.14 (47 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2