The model gives Carolina a slight edge, favouring the Panthers by 1.3 against a market line of CAR +3 at Unibet (1.86), but the gap is only 1.7 points, well short of the 10-point threshold the model needs before treating it as anything more than analysis in these opening weeks. On the total, the model sits at 44.9 against a market number of 47.5, a 1.6-point edge on Under 47.5 at TABtouch (1.88), again too small to matter. Both markets read as no edge, and neither side carries any real conviction.

There's no 2026 play-by-play in these numbers yet. The Panthers and Bears ratings are last season's form blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team (the market anchor) and scaled by how much of each roster carried over (continuity), which is why the model sits so lightly on either side. In this same early-season window last year the approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals, and 53% on totals is break-even at -110, so there's nothing here beyond passable analysis.