NFL 2026 · Week 5
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
CHIRating +3.4
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
GBRating -2.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CHI offence vs GB
short-right passing
+0.21 EPA/play
CHI offence vs GB
short-middle passing
+0.22 EPA/play
CHI offence vs GB
inside runs
+0.31 EPA/play
Market
Spread (GB)
Open +3 → Now +2·Move -1.0
AU bestGB +2.5 @ $1.98 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)CHI -1.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestGB +2.5 @ $1.98 Dabble AU
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 45.5·Move +1.0Moved toward model
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 46.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 45.5 @ $1.91 FanDuel
AU best CHI ML
$1.77 Bet Right
AU best GB ML
$2.15 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
CHI: Confirmed starter: Tyson Bagent. Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring injury. The model has no supported Bagent-for-Williams adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Chicago's confirmed starting quarterback is Tyson Bagent, with Caleb Williams out because of a hamstring injury. The model has no supported Bagent-for-Williams adjustment and cannot price that change, so both markets are unrated. This is a missing adjustment, not uncertainty about the announced starter. Chicago also had D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Jonah Jackson, Joe Thuney and Darnell Wright absent from Wednesday practice.
Green Bay's Jordan Love averaged 0.544 EPA per dropback from a clean pocket and -0.543 under pressure in the 2025 participation data. That older profile highlights pocket protection as a matchup question, with Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk also missing practice for Green Bay. Practice absences do not establish final game status. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · Confirmed starter: Tyson Bagent. Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring injury. The model has no supported Bagent-for-Williams adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CHI · 0 dropbacks
Tyson Bagent
Confirmed starter: Tyson Bagent. Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring injury. The model has no supported Bagent-for-Williams adjustment; both markets are unrated.
GB · 461 dropbacks
Jordan Love
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.54 (332 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.54 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CHI defence: pressure 28% · blitz 41%
CHI offence vs GB coverage
| Shell | GB usage | CHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 34% (204 snaps) | +0.08 (214 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 28% (171 snaps) | -0.02 (134 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (101 snaps) | +0.18 (140 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (59 snaps) | +0.21 (60 snaps) | +0.07 |
GB man coverage 20% · CHI vs man +0.20, vs zone +0.09
GB offence vs CHI coverage
| Shell | CHI usage | GB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (183 snaps) | +0.50 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (151 snaps) | +0.06 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (136 snaps) | +0.25 (141 snaps) | +0.06 |
CHI man coverage 42% · GB vs man +0.47, vs zone +0.16
CHI tendencies
Play action rate33% · +0.06 vs +0.30 EPA (49 snaps)
RPO rate5% (15 snaps)
Screen rate9% (14 snaps)
Personnel11 53%, 12 36%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 41% / 42%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.00 (26 snaps) · neutral -0.01 (32 snaps)
GB tendencies
Play action rate16% · — vs -0.02 EPA (26 snaps)
RPO rate4% (10 snaps)
Screen rate9% (14 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 40% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (64 snaps) · neutral -0.16 (47 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:02 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2