NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Home
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Spread
BAL PK
Total
48.5
CIN ML
$1.92
BAL ML
$1.96
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

CINRating -0.9
Off EPA/play
+0.100
Def EPA/play
+0.116
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.10
+.34
+.31
+.09
-.11
-.01
+.01
+.02
-.06
+.06
-.06
+.09
-.11
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.12
+.31
-.30
+.15
-.09
+.14
+.02
+.13
+.02
+.06
+.07
-.07
+.05
BALRating +4.8
Off EPA/play
+0.120
Def EPA/play
+0.033
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.12
-.17
+.28
+.16
+.05
+.18
-.04
-.11
-.23
+.12
+.08
-.12
+.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.13
+.13
+.26
-.24
-.11
+.04
-.09
-.19
-.01
+.17
-.22
.00
-.07
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

CIN offence vs BAL
deep-right passing
+0.57 EPA/play
BAL offence vs CIN
short-right passing
+0.32 EPA/play
BAL offence vs CIN
short-left passing
+0.31 EPA/play

Market

Spread (BAL)
Open -2.5 → Now +1·Move +3.5
AU best
BAL +1.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
CIN +0.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global best
BAL +1.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 51.0 → Now 48.5·Move -2.5
AU best over
Over 48.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 49.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 48.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best CIN ML
$1.92 Unibet
AU best BAL ML
$1.96 Betr
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
BAL: Lamar Jackson returned to limited practice with his ankle injury, but his game availability remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Baltimore's quarterback availability remains unresolved after Lamar Jackson returned to limited practice with his ankle injury. Jesse Minter has not confirmed his game availability, with Tyler Huntley the alternative, so the model cannot price either market and both remain UNRATED. Historical Jackson contributions remain within Baltimore's team sample; they cannot simply be attributed to Huntley or to a restricted returning starter.

Baltimore's shorter passing opportunities to either side are favourable against Cincinnati in the team-history data. Cam Jurgens clearing concussion protocol and practising fully is encouraging for protection, although several other linemen were limited. Cincinnati has a downfield route to challenge Baltimore through deep-right passing, which occupies a smaller share of its offence than the Ravens' highlighted short routes. Tavius Robinson's absence from practice and Jaylinn Hawkins's limited participation add defensive uncertainty. Joe Burrow remains Cincinnati's listed starter. These are matchup observations, with Wednesday participation still short of final game designations.

Why · Lamar Jackson returned to limited practice with his ankle injury, but his game availability remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 31%
BAL · 0 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson / Tyler Huntley
Lamar Jackson returned to limited practice with his ankle injury, but his game availability remains unresolved. Tyler Huntley is the alternative; both market ratings are withheld.
CIN offence vs BAL coverage
ShellBAL usageCIN EPA/dbLeague
Cover 331% (217 snaps)+0.02 (157 snaps)+0.06
Cover 124% (170 snaps)+0.18 (148 snaps)+0.06
Cover 219% (131 snaps)-0.34 (202 snaps)0.00
Cover 48% (53 snaps)-0.15 (49 snaps)+0.07
Cover 06% (42 snaps)—+0.10
Cover 66% (40 snaps)—-0.03
BAL man coverage 32% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
BAL offence vs CIN coverage
ShellCIN usageBAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (197 snaps)-0.22 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 125% (153 snaps)+0.20 (132 snaps)+0.06
Cover 220% (124 snaps)-0.21 (97 snaps)0.00
CIN man coverage 36% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
CIN tendencies
Play action rate17% · — vs +0.19 EPA (34 snaps)
RPO rate10% (31 snaps)
Screen rate9% (18 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 30%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.05 (57 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (38 snaps)
BAL tendencies
Play action rate28% · +0.38 vs +0.15 EPA (55 snaps)
RPO rate4% (16 snaps)
Screen rate7% (13 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 31% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.00 (83 snaps) · neutral -0.15 (51 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2