Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CIN offence vs BAL
deep-right passing
+0.57 EPA/play
BAL offence vs CIN
short-right passing
+0.32 EPA/play
BAL offence vs CIN
short-left passing
+0.31 EPA/play
Market
Spread (BAL)
Open -2.5 → Now +3·Move +5.5
AU best
BAL +3 @ $1.85 Unibet
AU best (other side)
CIN -2.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best
BAL +3 @ $1.95 BetUS
Total
Open 51.0 → Now 46.5·Move -4.5
AU best over
Over 45.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best under
Under 47.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 45.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best CIN ML
$1.68 Unibet
AU best BAL ML
$2.35 Neds
10 AU books · 33 total · 23 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
BAL: Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out Saturday and named Tyler Huntley to start. The starter question is settled, but the existing model has no supported Huntley-for-Jackson adjustment. Both market ratings remain withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Baltimore has named Tyler Huntley as its starting quarterback after ruling Lamar Jackson out, but the model cannot price that replacement with a supported adjustment. Both markets therefore remain UNRATED. The update resolves who is expected to lead the offence; it does not validate the historical projection for Huntley. There is no published margin, total or market selection, and the new odds are supplied only as current market information.
Cincinnati's dated final report carries no game designations, while Baltimore is missing Jaylinn Hawkins and has placed Tavius Robinson on injured reserve. That removes safety and pass-rush options against Joe Burrow's receiving group. Cam Jurgens has cleared the concussion report, which helps the protection outlook, but T.J. Tampa is doubtful and Broderick Washington remains questionable. Huntley can keep the offence functional without reproducing Jackson's movement and threat to the defence. Final inactives are still pending; starter confirmation alone does not remove the unsupported-adjustment issue.
Why · Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out Saturday and named Tyler Huntley to start. The starter question is settled, but the existing model has no supported Huntley-for-Jackson adjustment. Both market ratings remain withheld.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow · expected starter
Joe Burrow remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Cincinnati's dated final Week 7 report lists no game designations. Kyle Dugger progressed to full participation. Burrow remains the expected starter. The available receiving group can test Baltimore's depleted defense; a clean game-status list does not mean earlier injured-reserve absences have disappeared.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out Saturday and named Tyler Huntley to start. The starter question is settled, but the existing model has no supported Huntley-for-Jackson adjustment. Both market ratings remain withheld.
Lamar Jackson is out with his ankle injury. Tavius Robinson has gone to injured reserve with a season-ending pectoral injury and Jaylinn Hawkins is out. T.J. Tampa is doubtful; Broderick Washington is questionable. Cam Jurgens has cleared the concussion report. The defensive losses reduce pass-rush and safety options against Joe Burrow.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 31%
BAL · 0 dropbacks
Tyler Huntley
Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out Saturday and named Tyler Huntley to start. The starter question is settled, but the existing model has no supported Huntley-for-Jackson adjustment. Both market ratings remain withheld.
CIN offence vs BAL coverage
Shell
BAL usage
CIN EPA/db
League
Cover 3
31% (217 snaps)
+0.02 (157 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 1
24% (170 snaps)
+0.18 (148 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
19% (131 snaps)
-0.34 (202 snaps)
0.00
Cover 4
8% (53 snaps)
-0.15 (49 snaps)
+0.07
Cover 0
6% (42 snaps)
—
+0.10
Cover 6
6% (40 snaps)
—
-0.03
BAL man coverage 32% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
BAL offence vs CIN coverage
Shell
CIN usage
BAL EPA/db
League
Cover 3
32% (197 snaps)
-0.22 (134 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 1
25% (153 snaps)
+0.20 (132 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
20% (124 snaps)
-0.21 (97 snaps)
0.00
CIN man coverage 36% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)
Coverage
Spreads
Totals
Week 6
6–3–1
7–3–0
Season to W6
37–34–4
41–32–2
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 25 Oct 2026, 05:51 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.