Houston sits at -2.5 with Dabble AU offering 1.9, and the model's 4.6-point margin clears that line by only 2.1 points, well short of the 10-point bar the model needs early in the season, so this is a pass on the spread. The total is similarly thin, with just a 0.6-point edge against the market. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 2.0 points for Joe Burrow, since last season's underlying numbers were built largely on Flacco and others under centre. On last season's charting, Stroud's EPA per dropback dropped from 0.299 clean to -0.433 under pressure.

The rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far, a small slice still mostly outweighed by that blend. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread, and last season's weeks 1-5 backtest went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals, a reminder that break-even is the realistic bar this early. Nothing here reaches the model's higher early-season threshold in either market.