NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
CINRating -1.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
HOURating +2.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
HOU offence vs CIN
short-right passing
+0.25 EPA/play
CIN offence vs HOU
deep-left passing
+0.31 EPA/play
CIN offence vs HOU
runs behind left guard
+0.14 EPA/play
Market
Spread (HOU)
Open -3 → Now -2.5·Move +0.5
AU bestHOU -2.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)CIN +3 @ $1.90 TAB
Global bestHOU -2 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 46.5 → Now 46.0·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 46.5 @ $1.88 TABtouch
Global best overOver 33.5 @ $1.15 Courtside
AU best CIN ML
$2.30 Unibet
AU best HOU ML
$1.68 PlayUp
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model HOU +4.6 · total 44.9Spread · Analysis
HOU -2.5
$1.90 Dabble AU
Edge +2.1PASS
Total · Analysis
Under 46.5
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +0.6PASS
Houston sits at -2.5 with Dabble AU offering 1.9, and the model's 4.6-point margin clears that line by only 2.1 points, well short of the 10-point bar the model needs early in the season, so this is a pass on the spread. The total is similarly thin, with just a 0.6-point edge against the market. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 2.0 points for Joe Burrow, since last season's underlying numbers were built largely on Flacco and others under centre. On last season's charting, Stroud's EPA per dropback dropped from 0.299 clean to -0.433 under pressure.
The rating still leans heavily on last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the sample so far, a small slice still mostly outweighed by that blend. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified. Nothing here reaches the model's higher early-season threshold in either market.
Why · HOU short-right passing (+0.25 EPA/play vs CIN)
Hand adjustments · CIN Joe Burrow +2.0 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
HOU defence: pressure 30% · blitz 23%
HOU · 446 dropbacks
C.J. Stroud
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.30 (317 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.43 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced29%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CIN defence: pressure 30% · blitz 18%
CIN offence vs HOU coverage
| Shell | HOU usage | CIN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 29% (178 snaps) | +0.18 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 23% (143 snaps) | -0.34 (202 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (138 snaps) | +0.02 (157 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (76 snaps) | -0.15 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (48 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
HOU man coverage 32% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
HOU offence vs CIN coverage
| Shell | CIN usage | HOU EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (197 snaps) | +0.17 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 25% (153 snaps) | +0.36 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (124 snaps) | -0.02 (162 snaps) | 0.00 |
CIN man coverage 36% · HOU vs man -0.02, vs zone +0.10
CIN tendencies
Play action rate16% · -0.11 vs -0.00 EPA (110 snaps)
RPO rate9% (98 snaps)
Screen rate7% (46 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 30%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 18% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.13 (268 snaps) · neutral -0.03 (126 snaps) · heavy -0.21 (31 snaps)
HOU tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.19 vs +0.03 EPA (148 snaps)
RPO rate2% (19 snaps)
Screen rate5% (31 snaps)
Personnel11 72%, 12 12%, 21 7%, 10 4%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 23% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (193 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (136 snaps) · heavy -0.42 (30 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:47 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.
savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2