NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
CINRating -0.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
MIARating -6.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CIN offence vs MIA
deep-right passing
+0.68 EPA/play
MIA offence vs CIN
short-left passing
+0.38 EPA/play
CIN offence vs MIA
short-left passing
+0.29 EPA/play
Market
Spread (MIA)
Open +7.5 → Now +6.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU bestMIA +7 @ $1.88 PlayUp
AU best (other side)CIN -6.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Global bestMIA +7 @ $1.91 Hard Rock Bet
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 42.0 @ $1.90 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 42.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global best overOver 42.0 @ $1.90 PlayUp
AU best CIN ML
$1.32 Bet Right
AU best MIA ML
$3.60 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Play: Over 42
Model MIA -6.3 · total 54.1Spread · Analysis
MIA +7
$1.88 PlayUp
Edge +0.7PASS
Total · Model recommendation
Over 42
$1.90 PlayUp
Edge +12.1PLAY
The total is the model recommendation: Over 42 at PlayUp, priced at 1.9, has a 12.1-point edge against the model's 54.1-point projection. PLAY describes that recommendation, not a recorded bet. Cincinnati's deep-right passing matchup shows +0.68 EPA per play against Miami's weakest zone. The rating includes existing hand adjustments of 0.5 points for Joe Burrow and -0.3 for Malik Willis. Miami +7 at PlayUp has a 0.7-point edge and is a PASS.
Availability is a material caveat: Ja'Marr Chase missed Wednesday practice in concussion protocol, and Tee Higgins was also absent with groin/neck listed. Those are practice reports, not final game statuses, and no new numerical adjustment has been applied for either receiver. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · CIN deep-right passing (+0.68 EPA/play vs MIA, MIA's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CIN Joe Burrow +0.5 pts · MIA Malik Willis -0.3 pts
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
MIA defence: pressure 27% · blitz —
MIA · 38 dropbacks
Malik Willis
only 38 2025 dropbacks (min 100)
CIN defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
CIN offence vs MIA coverage
| Shell | MIA usage | CIN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 35% (208 snaps) | -0.34 (202 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (143 snaps) | +0.02 (157 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 20% (120 snaps) | +0.18 (148 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (42 snaps) | -0.15 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
MIA man coverage 28% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
MIA offence vs CIN coverage
| Shell | CIN usage | MIA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (197 snaps) | -0.08 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 25% (153 snaps) | +0.02 (66 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (124 snaps) | -0.22 (139 snaps) | 0.00 |
CIN man coverage 36% · MIA vs man +0.25, vs zone -0.07
CIN tendencies
Play action rate17% · — vs +0.16 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate8% (20 snaps)
Screen rate9% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 30%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.05 (41 snaps) · neutral -0.03 (26 snaps)
MIA tendencies
Play action rate26% · — vs -0.18 EPA (33 snaps)
RPO rate4% (9 snaps)
Screen rate12% (15 snaps)
Personnel11 39%, 21 29%, 12 11%, 22 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man27% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (39 snaps) · neutral -0.25 (52 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:03 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2