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NFL 2026 · Week 3
Away
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
@
Home
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Spread
PIT +3.5
Total
42.5
CIN ML
$1.53
PIT ML
$2.60
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm

Power Comparison

CINRating -1.2
Off EPA/play
+0.045
Def EPA/play
+0.066
Exp points
17.4
Offence by zone
+.22
+.01
+.13
-.17
+.09
-.14
.00
+.07
+.07
+.05
-.03
+.02
-.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.08
-.04
-.28
+.19
-.23
+.08
+.21
-.03
-.10
-.14
+.09
-.14
-.17
PITRating -1.3
Off EPA/play
0.000
Def EPA/play
+0.024
Exp points
20.4
Offence by zone
-.28
-.09
-.40
-.09
+.23
-.22
+.03
-.04
-.09
-.01
-.08
-.04
+.06
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.26
-.13
+.35
-.12
-.07
-.24
-.06
+.05
+.00
-.00
+.03
-.13
+.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

CIN offence vs PIT
deep-right passing
+0.47 EPA/play
CIN offence vs PIT
deep-left passing
+0.47 EPA/play
PIT offence vs CIN
runs off left end
+0.24 EPA/play

Market

Spread (PIT)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
PIT +4.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
CIN -3 @ $1.75 PlayUp
Global best
PIT +4.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 43.0 @ $1.87 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 28.5 @ $1.09 Courtside
AU best CIN ML
$1.53 Bet Right
AU best PIT ML
$2.60 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots

The Call

Lean: PIT +4.5
Model PIT +3.1 · total 37.8
Spread · Analysis
PIT +4.5
$1.90 Dabble AU
Edge +7.6LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 43
$1.87 PlayUp
Edge +4.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET

The model has Pittsburgh +3.1 against a market line of +3.5, and the best Australian price on Pittsburgh +4.5 at Dabble AU gives a 7.6-point edge on the spread, landing as a LEAN rather than the model's higher tier. The rating leans on Pittsburgh's edge running off left end, worth +0.24 EPA/play against Cincinnati's weakest zone there. It also carries a hand adjustment of 1.5 points for Joe Burrow, since last season's underlying rating was built mostly on Flacco and others under centre. This early in the season the rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams and roster continuity, with only 3,666 plays of 2026 football banked so far. The model's early-season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 2.

On the total, PlayUp's Under 43 shows a 4.7-point edge against the model's 37.8, short of the Lean floor and simply noted. On 2025 charting, Aaron Rodgers dropped to -0.71 EPA per dropback under pressure from 0.227 clean, a detail worth watching given Cincinnati's pressure rate.

Why · PIT runs off left end (+0.24 EPA/play vs CIN, CIN's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CIN Joe Burrow +1.5 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CIN · 278 dropbacks
Joe Burrow
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.27 (195 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.30 (83 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PIT defence: pressure 30% · blitz 31%
PIT · 526 dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.23 (415 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.71 (111 snaps)
Pressure rate faced21%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CIN defence: pressure 30% · blitz 18%
CIN offence vs PIT coverage
ShellPIT usageCIN EPA/dbLeague
Cover 329% (200 snaps)+0.02 (157 snaps)+0.06
Cover 124% (165 snaps)+0.18 (148 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (144 snaps)-0.34 (202 snaps)0.00
Cover 49% (64 snaps)-0.15 (49 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (48 snaps)+0.19 (67 snaps)+0.07
PIT man coverage 35% · CIN vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.13
PIT offence vs CIN coverage
ShellCIN usagePIT EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (197 snaps)-0.00 (149 snaps)+0.06
Cover 125% (153 snaps)+0.04 (128 snaps)+0.06
Cover 220% (124 snaps)+0.09 (152 snaps)0.00
CIN man coverage 36% · PIT vs man +0.03, vs zone +0.04
CIN tendencies
Play action rate16% · -0.11 vs -0.00 EPA (110 snaps)
RPO rate9% (98 snaps)
Screen rate7% (46 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 30%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 18% / 36%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.13 (268 snaps) · neutral -0.03 (126 snaps) · heavy -0.21 (31 snaps)
PIT tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.20 vs +0.09 EPA (115 snaps)
RPO rate9% (89 snaps)
Screen rate14% (81 snaps)
Personnel11 49%, 12 33%, 13 14%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 31% / 35%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (193 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (154 snaps) · heavy -0.04 (68 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 2 · last updated 24 Sept 2026, 04:09 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2