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NFL 2026 · Week 1
Away
CLE
Cleveland Browns
@
Home
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 13 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
EverBank Stadium
Spread
JAX -8
Total
40.5
CLE ML
$4.30
JAX ML
$1.31
AU consensus as of 07/09/2026, 6:15:04 pm

Power Comparison

CLERating -3.6
Off EPA/play
-0.032
Def EPA/play
+0.034
Exp points
12.5
Offence by zone
-.20
-.08
-.25
-.22
-.04
-.27
-.01
-.07
-.04
+.06
+.01
+.03
+.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.31
+.03
-.08
-.58
+.14
+.15
+.10
-.05
+.17
+.14
+.07
.00
+.07
JAXRating +4.7
Off EPA/play
+0.104
Def EPA/play
+0.018
Exp points
22.8
Offence by zone
+.00
+.04
-.06
+.07
-.12
+.32
-.14
-.00
-.10
-.07
-.04
-.12
+.04
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.17
-.22
+.19
-.12
-.27
-.15
-.03
+.24
+.10
-.03
+.08
-.00
+.13
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

JAX offence vs CLE
short-right passing
+0.47 EPA/play
CLE offence vs JAX
runs behind left guard
+0.17 EPA/play
CLE offence vs JAX
runs off right tackle
+0.13 EPA/play

Market

Spread (JAX)
Open -8 → Now -8·Move 0.0
AU best
JAX -7.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
CLE +8.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
JAX -7.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Total
Open 40.5 → Now 40.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 40.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 40.5 @ $1.93 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 40.0 @ $1.83 PlayUp
AU best CLE ML
$4.30 SportsBet
AU best JAX ML
$1.31 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 32 total · 3 snapshots

The Call

Lean: Under 40.5
Model JAX +10.3 · total 35.3
Spread · Analysis
JAX -7.5
$1.92 Dabble AU
Edge +2.8LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 40.5
$1.93 TABtouch
Edge +4.7LEAN

The model leans Under 40.5 as the primary market here, with TABtouch's 40.5 at 1.93 offering a 4.7-point edge against the model's projected total of 35.3 — a gap short of the 10-point threshold the model requires before this tier moves higher this early in the season. On the spread, Jacksonville -7.5 at Dabble AU (1.92) shows a 2.8-point edge against the model's 10.3-point projected margin, again short of that mark. Both sit in LEAN territory: the model sees something in Jacksonville's short-right passing game against Cleveland's defence (+0.47 EPA/play), but this is analysis, not a tip. Note the rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.5 points for Deshaun Watson.

There's no 2026 play-by-play here yet — this rating blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams (the market anchor), scaled by how much of each roster carried over (continuity). Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Why · JAX short-right passing (+0.47 EPA/play vs CLE)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.5 pts

Published Model Results

2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT

This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.

All rated analysis (W–L–P)
CoverageSpreadsTotals
Week 66–3–17–3–0
Season to W637–34–441–32–2

Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.

Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return

One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.

SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.

Results source and coverage

Tracked Bets

Spread
0-0
Total
0-0
Units
0.0
2026 season graded betting log through Week 0 · last updated 07 Sept 2026, 06:53 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 07/09/2026V3.2