NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
CLE
Cleveland Browns
@
Home
NYJ
New York Jets
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
40.0
CLE ML
$2.10
NYJ ML
$1.77
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
CLERating +0.7
Off EPA/play
+0.083
Def EPA/play
+0.070
Exp points
23.6
Offence by zone
+.01
-.17
-.07
+.06
+.14
+.21
-.17
+.02
-.01
-.24
+.13
-.05
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.01
-.03
-.18
-.23
+.00
+.12
+.04
+.06
+.10
+.03
+.00
+.06
-.08
NYJRating -3.8
Off EPA/play
+0.036
Def EPA/play
+0.105
Exp points
21.2
Offence by zone
+.19
+.26
+.40
-.19
+.10
+.03
-.05
-.07
-.16
-.12
-.05
-.10
+.11
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.03
-.17
-.07
+.03
+.10
+.15
-.10
-.18
-.40
+.06
+.16
+.08
+.14
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CLE offence vs NYJ
short-right passing
+0.36 EPA/play
NYJ offence vs CLE
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
CLE offence vs NYJ
short-middle passing
+0.24 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYJ)
Open -2 → Now -2·Move 0.0
AU best
NYJ -2 @ $1.93 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
CLE +2.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best
NYJ -1 @ $1.83 BetUS
Total
Open 40.0 → Now 40.0·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 39.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 40.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 39.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best CLE ML
$2.10 Unibet
AU best NYJ ML
$1.77 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 39.5
Model NYJ -2.3 · total 44.8Spread · Analysis
CLE +2.5
$1.92 Dabble AU
Edge +4.8EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 39.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +5.3EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The total is NOTED: Over 39.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.9, has a 5.3-point edge against a 44.8-point projection. Cleveland +2.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 1.92, has a 4.8-point spread edge and is also NOTED. Neither market is a recommendation. The model projects Cleveland winning by 2.3 after the venue adjustment, with short-right passing the main matchup advantage at +0.36 EPA per play.
The rating includes existing hand adjustments of 0.1 points for Deshaun Watson and 0.2 for Geno Smith. Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Dylan Parham missed Wednesday practice for the Jets; Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. were absent for Cleveland. These are not final game-status designations. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · CLE short-right passing (+0.36 EPA/play vs NYJ)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.1 pts · NYJ Geno Smith +0.2 pts
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
NYJ defence: pressure 24% · blitz 37%
NYJ · 503 dropbacks
Geno Smith
2025 sample with LV
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (339 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.98 (164 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate5%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz —
CLE offence vs NYJ coverage
| Shell | NYJ usage | CLE EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 28% (160 snaps) | -0.27 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | -0.26 (146 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (129 snaps) | -0.35 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (42 snaps) | +0.04 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (41 snaps) | -0.08 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYJ man coverage 40% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
NYJ offence vs CLE coverage
| Shell | CLE usage | NYJ EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (195 snaps) | -0.38 (112 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 27% (153 snaps) | +0.03 (204 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (114 snaps) | -0.31 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
CLE man coverage 41% · NYJ vs man -0.18, vs zone -0.13
CLE tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs +0.20 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate8% (17 snaps)
Screen rate12% (17 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / — / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (67 snaps)
NYJ tendencies
Play action rate22% · — vs +0.08 EPA (30 snaps)
RPO rate2% (5 snaps)
Screen rate8% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 20%, 21 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man24% / 37% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (40 snaps) · neutral -0.06 (54 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:03 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2