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NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
CLE
Cleveland Browns
@
Home
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Spread
TB -8
Total
41.5
CLE ML
$4.60
TB ML
$1.26
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

CLERating -4.5
Off EPA/play
0.000
Def EPA/play
+0.082
Exp points
18.4
Offence by zone
-.14
+.03
-.12
-.26
-.02
-.18
+.00
-.03
+.01
+.02
-.03
+.02
+.00
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.11
+.02
+.01
-.31
+.15
+.12
+.08
-.06
+.12
+.08
+.04
+.02
+.00
TBRating -0.6
Off EPA/play
+0.077
Def EPA/play
+0.088
Exp points
23.2
Offence by zone
+.01
-.10
-.07
+.07
+.15
-.07
+.07
-.02
+.01
-.09
-.03
-.06
+.09
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.20
+.06
-.10
+.05
+.10
-.06
-.00
-.02
-.08
+.05
+.01
+.04
-.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

TB offence vs CLE
short-middle passing
+0.29 EPA/play
TB offence vs CLE
runs off left end
+0.16 EPA/play
TB offence vs CLE
runs off left tackle
+0.13 EPA/play

Market

Spread (TB)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU best
TB -7.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
AU best (other side)
CLE +9.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global best
TB -7.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Total
Open 41.0 → Now 41.5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 41.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 42.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 35.5 @ $1.36 Courtside
AU best CLE ML
$4.60 SportsBet
AU best TB ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 32 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: CLE +9.5
Model TB +4.8 · total 41.6
Spread · Analysis
CLE +9.5
$1.90 Dabble AU
Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 41
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +0.6PASS

Buccaneers are laying 8 at home with the market's best line at -7.5 through SportsBet, but the model's margin sits at just 4.8, leaving Cleveland +9.5 at 1.9 with Dabble AU a gap of 2.7 points, which the model notes and nothing more, well short of the Lean floor. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.4 points for Deshaun Watson given the uncertainty over Watson versus rookie Sanders. It's early season, so both teams' ratings are still last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample small at 1,830 plays and still mostly outweighed by that prior. The model's season record stands at 1-0 against the spread through week 1.

The total sits at 41.5 with TABtouch's 41 the best number for the Over, but the model's own total of 41.6 leaves only a 0.6 point edge, a pass. On 2025 charting, Cleveland's offence managed just -0.352 EPA per play against Tampa Bay's Cover 3 shell, run 32% of the time.

Why · TB short-middle passing (+0.29 EPA/play vs CLE, CLE's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.4 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 34%
TB · 584 dropbacks
Baker Mayfield
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.18 (431 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz 28%
CLE offence vs TB coverage
ShellTB usageCLE EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (203 snaps)-0.35 (169 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (137 snaps)-0.26 (146 snaps)0.00
Cover 118% (113 snaps)-0.27 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 411% (71 snaps)-0.08 (64 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (45 snaps)+0.04 (45 snaps)+0.07
TB man coverage 29% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
TB offence vs CLE coverage
ShellCLE usageTB EPA/dbLeague
Cover 135% (195 snaps)+0.01 (162 snaps)+0.06
Cover 327% (153 snaps)+0.05 (168 snaps)+0.06
Cover 220% (114 snaps)+0.20 (153 snaps)0.00
CLE man coverage 41% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
CLE tendencies
Play action rate22% · -0.27 vs -0.25 EPA (141 snaps)
RPO rate4% (39 snaps)
Screen rate9% (55 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 28% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (181 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (170 snaps) · heavy +0.08 (79 snaps)
TB tendencies
Play action rate17% · +0.31 vs -0.02 EPA (108 snaps)
RPO rate8% (85 snaps)
Screen rate10% (67 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 34% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.05 (174 snaps) · neutral -0.21 (124 snaps) · heavy -0.03 (47 snaps)

Model Form

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.

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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2