NFL 2026 · Week 2
@
Home
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
CLERating -4.5
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
TBRating -0.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
TB offence vs CLE
short-middle passing
+0.29 EPA/play
TB offence vs CLE
runs off left end
+0.16 EPA/play
TB offence vs CLE
runs off left tackle
+0.13 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TB)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU bestTB -7.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
AU best (other side)CLE +9.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global bestTB -7.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Total
Open 41.0 → Now 41.5·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 41.0 @ $1.88 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 42.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best overOver 35.5 @ $1.36 Courtside
AU best CLE ML
$4.60 SportsBet
AU best TB ML
$1.26 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 32 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: CLE +9.5
Model TB +4.8 · total 41.6Spread · Analysis
CLE +9.5
$1.90 Dabble AU
Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 41
$1.88 TABtouch
Edge +0.6PASS
Buccaneers are laying 8 at home with the market's best line at -7.5 through SportsBet, but the model's margin sits at just 4.8, leaving Cleveland +9.5 at 1.9 with Dabble AU a gap of 2.7 points, which the model notes and nothing more, well short of the Lean floor. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 0.4 points for Deshaun Watson given the uncertainty over Watson versus rookie Sanders. It's early season, so both teams' ratings are still last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample small at 1,830 plays and still mostly outweighed by that prior. The model's season record stands at 1-0 against the spread through week 1.
The total sits at 41.5 with TABtouch's 41 the best number for the Over, but the model's own total of 41.6 leaves only a 0.6 point edge, a pass. On 2025 charting, Cleveland's offence managed just -0.352 EPA per play against Tampa Bay's Cover 3 shell, run 32% of the time.
Why · TB short-middle passing (+0.29 EPA/play vs CLE, CLE's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · CLE Deshaun Watson +0.4 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 34%
TB · 584 dropbacks
Baker Mayfield
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.18 (431 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced26%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz 28%
CLE offence vs TB coverage
| Shell | TB usage | CLE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (203 snaps) | -0.35 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (137 snaps) | -0.26 (146 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (113 snaps) | -0.27 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (71 snaps) | -0.08 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | +0.04 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
TB man coverage 29% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
TB offence vs CLE coverage
| Shell | CLE usage | TB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (195 snaps) | +0.01 (162 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 27% (153 snaps) | +0.05 (168 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (114 snaps) | +0.20 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
CLE man coverage 41% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
CLE tendencies
Play action rate22% · -0.27 vs -0.25 EPA (141 snaps)
RPO rate4% (39 snaps)
Screen rate9% (55 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 28% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (181 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (170 snaps) · heavy +0.08 (79 snaps)
TB tendencies
Play action rate17% · +0.31 vs -0.02 EPA (108 snaps)
RPO rate8% (85 snaps)
Screen rate10% (67 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 34% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.05 (174 snaps) · neutral -0.21 (124 snaps) · heavy -0.03 (47 snaps)
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
|---|
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
|---|
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:48 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2