NFL 2026 · Week 7
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
CLERating +1.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
TENRating -11.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
CLE offence vs TEN
short-left passing
+0.18 EPA/play
CLE offence vs TEN
short-right passing
+0.19 EPA/play
CLE offence vs TEN
deep-left passing
+0.23 EPA/play
Market
Spread (TEN)
Open +2 → Now +1.5·Move -0.5
AU bestTEN +2.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)CLE -1.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
Global bestTEN +2.5 @ $1.91 ReBet
Total
Open 38.5 → Now 37.5·Move -1.0Moved toward model
AU best overOver 37.5 @ $1.95 SportsBet
AU best underUnder 37.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
Global best overOver 37.0 @ $1.91 MyBookie.ag
AU best CLE ML
$1.83 PointsBet (AU)
AU best TEN ML
$2.07 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Lean: CLE -1.5
Model TEN -10.9 · total 34.7Spread · Analysis
CLE -1.5
$1.92 Unibet
Edge +9.4LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 37.5
$1.95 Dabble AU
Edge +2.8PASS
Cleveland -1.5 at Unibet, priced at 1.92, has a 9.4-point model gap but remains LEAN because away selections are analysis only. Cleveland has stronger profiles on both sides of the ball, while Tennessee's offence is the main constraint on the scoring forecast. Short passes to either side are the Browns' most useful highlighted opportunities, offering Deshaun Watson routes to move the chains without depending on low-frequency deep throws.
Cleveland's availability report makes that path less straightforward. Elgton Jenkins and Teven Jenkins missed practice, with Tytus Howard limited, creating protection concerns. Grant Delpit, Carson Schwesinger and Mike Hall Jr. were also absent, while several other defensive linemen were limited. Tennessee's Calvin Ridley was limited with a hip injury, and Cam Ward remains the listed starter. Wednesday reports are provisional and have not produced numerical adjustments. Under 37.5 at Dabble AU remains PASS with a 2.8-point gap. Neither market is a formal recommendation.
Why · CLE short-left passing (+0.18 EPA/play vs TEN, TEN's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
CLE · 0 dropbacks
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 dropbacks charted for Deshaun Watson
TEN defence: pressure 30% · blitz 24%
TEN · 592 dropbacks
Cam Ward
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.08 (407 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.80 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)7%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
CLE defence: pressure 35% · blitz 24%
CLE offence vs TEN coverage
| Shell | TEN usage | CLE EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 29% (173 snaps) | -0.26 (146 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (157 snaps) | -0.35 (169 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (116 snaps) | -0.27 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (56 snaps) | -0.08 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
TEN man coverage 27% · CLE vs man -0.15, vs zone -0.31
TEN offence vs CLE coverage
| Shell | CLE usage | TEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (195 snaps) | -0.30 (144 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 27% (153 snaps) | -0.20 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 20% (114 snaps) | -0.02 (175 snaps) | 0.00 |
CLE man coverage 41% · TEN vs man -0.21, vs zone -0.19
CLE tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.18 vs +0.06 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate8% (27 snaps)
Screen rate11% (24 snaps)
Personnel12 46%, 11 46%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 24% / 41%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (92 snaps) · neutral +0.05 (46 snaps)
TEN tendencies
Play action rate22% · -0.38 vs -0.12 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate6% (20 snaps)
Screen rate6% (12 snaps)
Personnel11 73%, 12 24%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 24% / 27%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.14 (82 snaps) · neutral -0.11 (80 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2