NFL 2026 · Week 6
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 11:20am AEDT
Sun 18 Oct, 8:20pm ET
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am
Power Comparison
DALRating -1.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
GBRating +3.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
GB offence vs DAL
deep-middle passing
+0.86 EPA/play
GB offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.51 EPA/play
DAL offence vs GB
short-left passing
+0.32 EPA/play
Market
Spread (GB)
Open -1 → Now -1.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU bestGB -0.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
AU best (other side)DAL +2.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Global bestGB -0.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Total
Open 52.5 → Now 53.0·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 52.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best underUnder 53.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 52.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best DAL ML
$2.00 Bet Right
AU best GB ML
$1.87 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots
The Call
Play: GB -0.5
Model GB +8.4 · total 57.5Spread · Model recommendation
GB -0.5
$1.86 SportsBet
Edge +7.9PLAY
Total · Analysis
Over 52.5
$1.90 TAB
Edge +5.0LEAN
Dallas has the stronger offensive model profile, but Green Bay's defensive advantage is substantial. The Packers allow 0.055 model EPA per play against the Cowboys' 0.178. Green Bay also has favourable passing matchups through the middle, including a shorter option that is used more often than its deep-middle route. That provides a credible path to scoring without assuming every attack must be explosive.
Both secondaries have availability concerns. Dallas had Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown absent Wednesday, while Green Bay was missing Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste. Those issues could help Dak Prescott and Jordan Love sustain a scoring exchange if they persist. CeeDee Lamb participated fully, while Packers linemen Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk were limited. Final statuses remain pending, and no new numerical injury adjustments are included. GB -0.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.86, is a PLAY with a 7.9-point model edge. Over 52.5 at TAB is a separate LEAN, below the total recommendation threshold. The spread label describes a recommendation, not an executed bet.
Why · GB deep-middle passing (+0.86 EPA/play vs DAL)
Situational
2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
GB defence: pressure 31% · blitz 34%
GB · 461 dropbacks
Jordan Love
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.54 (332 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.54 (129 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DAL defence: pressure 32% · blitz 28%
DAL offence vs GB coverage
| Shell | GB usage | DAL EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 34% (204 snaps) | +0.16 (145 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 28% (171 snaps) | -0.04 (156 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (101 snaps) | +0.38 (142 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 10% (59 snaps) | +0.26 (100 snaps) | +0.07 |
GB man coverage 20% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
GB offence vs DAL coverage
| Shell | DAL usage | GB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (184 snaps) | +0.25 (141 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (157 snaps) | +0.06 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (134 snaps) | +0.50 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (80 snaps) | +0.36 (55 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
DAL man coverage 25% · GB vs man +0.47, vs zone +0.16
DAL tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.09 vs +0.22 EPA (47 snaps)
RPO rate4% (13 snaps)
Screen rate6% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.10 (55 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (79 snaps)
GB tendencies
Play action rate20% · +0.51 vs +0.01 EPA (40 snaps)
RPO rate6% (17 snaps)
Screen rate10% (19 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 34% / 20%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight 0.00 (74 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (56 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2