Houston is favoured at home at -3.0, with the best AU line at -2.5 via PointsBet (1.83), and the model's 4.2-point margin produces just a 1.7-point edge against that line, well short of the 10-point bar required before week 6, so this is a pass. The total shows the same pattern: SportsBet's 47.5 over sits only 0.9 points under the model's 48.4 projection, again too small to act on. Houston's short-right passing game grades at +0.16 EPA per play against Dallas's defence, a modest structural lean but not enough to move either market read. Early season, the rating still blends last year's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of each roster, scaled by continuity, with 5,586 plays of 2026 football only starting to be phased in. The model's season-to-date record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 3.

On 2025 season charting, Dak Prescott averaged 0.36 EPA per dropback when clean but dropped to -0.28 under pressure, a number worth watching live even though neither market clears the model's threshold this week.