NFL 2026 · Week 1
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep, 10:20am AEST
Sun 13 Sep, 8:20pm ET
AU consensus as of 07/09/2026, 6:15:04 pm
Power Comparison
DALRating -2.1
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NYGRating -1.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYG offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.37 EPA/play
NYG offence vs DAL
short-left passing
+0.29 EPA/play
DAL offence vs NYG
deep-right passing
+0.32 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYG)
Open +3 → Now +3·Move 0.0
AU bestNYG +3.5 @ $1.82 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)DAL -2.5 @ $1.83 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestNYG +3.5 @ $1.82 Dabble AU
Total
Open 48.5 → Now 48.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 48.0 @ $1.91 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 50.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best overOver 48.0 @ $1.98 LowVig.ag
AU best DAL ML
$1.65 SportsBet
AU best NYG ML
$2.36 SportsBet
11 AU books · 32 total · 3 snapshots
The Call
Lean: NYG +3.5
Model NYG +3.4 · total 50.7Spread · Analysis
NYG +3.5
$1.82 Dabble AU
Edge +6.9LEAN
Total · Analysis
Over 48
$1.91 PlayUp
Edge +2.7PASS
The model gives the Giants +3.4 on the spread, leaning toward New York +3.5 at Dabble AU (1.82), a 6.9-point edge against the best line. The key driver is Giants' short-middle passing, up 0.37 EPA per play against a Dallas defence that's their weakest zone there. That's a genuine edge in the model's eyes but it sits short of the higher 10-point bar the model requires before week 6, so this is analysis rather than a tip. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified. With no 2026 play-by-play yet, the rating is last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of both teams (the market anchor) and scaled by how much of each roster carried over (continuity).
On the total, the model's 50.7 sits only 2.7 points clear of the market's 48 at PlayUp (1. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Why · NYG short-middle passing (+0.37 EPA/play vs DAL, DAL's weakest zone)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 0 · last updated 07 Sept 2026, 07:00 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 07/09/2026V3.2