NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
@
Home
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Tue 27 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 26 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Spread
PHI +4.75
Total
44.5
DAL ML
$1.46
PHI ML
$2.87
AU consensus as of 25/10/2026, 5:50:34 pm

Power Comparison

DALRating -2.8
Off EPA/play
+0.103
Def EPA/play
+0.154
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.00
+.29
-.10
+.16
-.40
+.07
+.02
+.02
+.06
+.19
-.11
+.01
-.18
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.11
+.18
+.14
.00
+.38
+.19
+.12
-.11
-.08
-.12
+.29
+.04
+.08
PHIRating -4.9
Off EPA/play
-0.023
Def EPA/play
+0.065
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.31
+.07
+.16
-.10
+.05
-.23
-.24
-.07
+.15
+.14
-.14
-.34
-.12
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.10
-.18
-.09
+.05
+.04
-.12
+.16
+.20
+.17
+.03
-.16
-.24
+.09
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

PHI offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.43 EPA/play
DAL offence vs PHI
short-left passing
+0.21 EPA/play
PHI offence vs DAL
deep-right passing
+0.31 EPA/play

Market

Spread (PHI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU best
PHI +6.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
DAL -4.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
PHI +6.5 @ $1.85 Dabble AU
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 43.5 @ $1.87 theScore Bet
AU best DAL ML
$1.46 Ladbrokes
AU best PHI ML
$2.87 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 23 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
PHI: Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Philadelphia's starting quarterback remains Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, but the model cannot price the replacement with a supported adjustment. Both markets stay UNRATED. The latest team coverage supports McKee's role; it does not solve the model-support issue or justify publishing a margin, total or selection. Current market offers are shown separately from that withheld assessment.

The final Saturday report makes the supporting-cast concern more concrete. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out, leaving fewer established receiving options, although Dallas Goedert is cleared. Saquon Barkley remains questionable, and Landon Dickerson still needs activation from injured reserve. Nolan Smith is out, with Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt questionable, so the edge rotation is also uncertain. Dallas is missing KaVontae Turpin, Drew Shelton and Dee Winters, reducing receiving, tackle and linebacker depth. Final inactives remain pending. These football implications are discussed without manufacturing numerical adjustments, and starter confirmation alone cannot create a supported rating.

Why · Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.

Availability check

Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott · expected starter

Dak Prescott remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.

The NFL's final Saturday report rules out KaVontae Turpin, Drew Shelton and Dee Winters. Marist Liufau and P.J. Locke are questionable and require activation from injured reserve. The club's generic table still exposes earlier practice entries, so it is not treated as the final report. The absences reduce receiving, tackle and linebacker depth; Prescott remains the expected starter.

Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24

Philadelphia Eagles

Tanner McKee · confirmed starter

Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.

McKee continues in place of Jalen Hurts, who remains on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Nolan Smith and Michael Carter II are out. Dallas Goedert is cleared. Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt are questionable; Landon Dickerson and several other return-window players still require activation. The receiver absences narrow McKee's options, while the line and edge questions affect protection and pressure.

Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24

Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz 25%
PHI · 0 dropbacks
Tanner McKee
Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
DAL offence vs PHI coverage
ShellPHI usageDAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 135% (221 snaps)+0.38 (142 snaps)+0.06
Cover 322% (140 snaps)+0.16 (145 snaps)+0.06
Cover 218% (114 snaps)-0.04 (156 snaps)0.00
Cover 47% (43 snaps)+0.26 (100 snaps)+0.07
PHI man coverage 44% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
PHI offence vs DAL coverage
ShellDAL usagePHI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 329% (184 snaps)+0.23 (154 snaps)+0.06
Cover 225% (157 snaps)-0.05 (109 snaps)0.00
Cover 121% (134 snaps)+0.11 (127 snaps)+0.06
Cover 413% (80 snaps)-0.09 (77 snaps)+0.07
Cover 66% (40 snaps)—-0.03
DAL man coverage 25% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
DAL tendencies
Play action rate21% · +0.09 vs +0.13 EPA (55 snaps)
RPO rate4% (15 snaps)
Screen rate6% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (67 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (88 snaps)
PHI tendencies
Play action rate18% · -0.33 vs -0.05 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate6% (21 snaps)
Screen rate6% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 25% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (98 snaps) · neutral +0.18 (58 snaps)

Published Model Results

2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT

This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.

All rated analysis (W–L–P)
CoverageSpreadsTotals
Week 66–3–17–3–0
Season to W637–34–441–32–2

Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.

Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return

One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.

SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.

Results source and coverage

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 25 Oct 2026, 05:51 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2