NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
@
Home
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Tue 27 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 26 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Spread
PHI +4.5
Total
44.5
DAL ML
$1.48
PHI ML
$2.80
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

DALRating -2.8
Off EPA/play
+0.103
Def EPA/play
+0.154
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.00
+.29
-.10
+.16
-.40
+.07
+.02
+.02
+.06
+.19
-.11
+.01
-.18
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.11
+.18
+.14
.00
+.38
+.19
+.12
-.11
-.08
-.12
+.29
+.04
+.08
PHIRating -4.9
Off EPA/play
-0.023
Def EPA/play
+0.065
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.31
+.07
+.16
-.10
+.05
-.23
-.24
-.07
+.15
+.14
-.14
-.34
-.12
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.10
-.18
-.09
+.05
+.04
-.12
+.16
+.20
+.17
+.03
-.16
-.24
+.09
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

PHI offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.43 EPA/play
DAL offence vs PHI
short-left passing
+0.21 EPA/play
PHI offence vs DAL
deep-right passing
+0.31 EPA/play

Market

Spread (PHI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU best
PHI +4.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
AU best (other side)
DAL -4.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global best
PHI +4.5 @ $1.93 DraftKings
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 44.5 @ $1.95 TAB
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best DAL ML
$1.48 Bet Right
AU best PHI ML
$2.80 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
PHI: Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Philadelphia's quarterback Tanner McKee remains the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, but the model cannot price the replacement through a supported adjustment. Both markets are UNRATED. McKee's presence does not make Philadelphia's mixed-quarterback team history a forecast specific to him, and no new numerical value has been introduced for the change.

Philadelphia's short-middle passing matchup is favourable against Dallas in the historical data, while the Cowboys have a frequently used short-left route for Dak Prescott. Those areas provide a useful framework for watching how each offence tries to sustain drives. Dallas has the stronger overall offensive profile, but its weaker defensive profile could give Philadelphia opportunities if McKee can use them. The Monday-game practice reports were not yet available, so neither club's later availability can be assumed from previous designations. The matchup remains descriptive, without a published spread, total or score projection. Current injury context has not been converted into additional points.

Why · Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz 25%
PHI · 0 dropbacks
Tanner McKee
Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
DAL offence vs PHI coverage
ShellPHI usageDAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 135% (221 snaps)+0.38 (142 snaps)+0.06
Cover 322% (140 snaps)+0.16 (145 snaps)+0.06
Cover 218% (114 snaps)-0.04 (156 snaps)0.00
Cover 47% (43 snaps)+0.26 (100 snaps)+0.07
PHI man coverage 44% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
PHI offence vs DAL coverage
ShellDAL usagePHI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 329% (184 snaps)+0.23 (154 snaps)+0.06
Cover 225% (157 snaps)-0.05 (109 snaps)0.00
Cover 121% (134 snaps)+0.11 (127 snaps)+0.06
Cover 413% (80 snaps)-0.09 (77 snaps)+0.07
Cover 66% (40 snaps)—-0.03
DAL man coverage 25% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
DAL tendencies
Play action rate21% · +0.09 vs +0.13 EPA (55 snaps)
RPO rate4% (15 snaps)
Screen rate6% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (67 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (88 snaps)
PHI tendencies
Play action rate18% · -0.33 vs -0.05 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate6% (21 snaps)
Screen rate6% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 25% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (98 snaps) · neutral +0.18 (58 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2