NFL 2026 · Week 7
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PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Tue 27 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 26 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
DALRating -2.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
PHIRating -4.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
PHI offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.43 EPA/play
DAL offence vs PHI
short-left passing
+0.21 EPA/play
PHI offence vs DAL
deep-right passing
+0.31 EPA/play
Market
Spread (PHI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU bestPHI +4.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
AU best (other side)DAL -4.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Global bestPHI +4.5 @ $1.93 DraftKings
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 44.5 @ $1.95 TAB
AU best underUnder 44.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best overOver 44.0 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best DAL ML
$1.48 Bet Right
AU best PHI ML
$2.80 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
PHI: Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDTotal · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATEDPhiladelphia's quarterback Tanner McKee remains the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, but the model cannot price the replacement through a supported adjustment. Both markets are UNRATED. McKee's presence does not make Philadelphia's mixed-quarterback team history a forecast specific to him, and no new numerical value has been introduced for the change.
Philadelphia's short-middle passing matchup is favourable against Dallas in the historical data, while the Cowboys have a frequently used short-left route for Dak Prescott. Those areas provide a useful framework for watching how each offence tries to sustain drives. Dallas has the stronger overall offensive profile, but its weaker defensive profile could give Philadelphia opportunities if McKee can use them. The Monday-game practice reports were not yet available, so neither club's later availability can be assumed from previous designations. The matchup remains descriptive, without a published spread, total or score projection. Current injury context has not been converted into additional points.
Why · Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PHI defence: pressure 33% · blitz 25%
PHI · 0 dropbacks
Tanner McKee
Tanner McKee is the listed starter with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. The existing model has no supported McKee-for-Hurts adjustment; both market ratings are withheld.
DAL offence vs PHI coverage
| Shell | PHI usage | DAL EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 35% (221 snaps) | +0.38 (142 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 22% (140 snaps) | +0.16 (145 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 18% (114 snaps) | -0.04 (156 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (43 snaps) | +0.26 (100 snaps) | +0.07 |
PHI man coverage 44% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
PHI offence vs DAL coverage
| Shell | DAL usage | PHI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (184 snaps) | +0.23 (154 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (157 snaps) | -0.05 (109 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (134 snaps) | +0.11 (127 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (80 snaps) | -0.09 (77 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
DAL man coverage 25% · PHI vs man +0.12, vs zone +0.05
DAL tendencies
Play action rate21% · +0.09 vs +0.13 EPA (55 snaps)
RPO rate4% (15 snaps)
Screen rate6% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.02 (67 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (88 snaps)
PHI tendencies
Play action rate18% · -0.33 vs -0.05 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate6% (21 snaps)
Screen rate6% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 63%, 12 28%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man33% / 25% / 44%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (98 snaps) · neutral +0.18 (58 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2