NFL 2026 · Week 7
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 7:05am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 4:05pm ET
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am
Power Comparison
DENRating -4.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
ARIRating -5.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
DEN offence vs ARI
short-right passing
+0.12 EPA/play
DEN offence vs ARI
deep-left passing
+0.26 EPA/play
ARI offence vs DEN
runs off left end
+0.16 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ARI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4.5·Move 0.0
AU bestARI +4.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best (other side)DEN -4.5 @ $1.93 Unibet
Global bestARI +4.5 @ $1.91 DraftKings
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 43.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 43.5 @ $1.95 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 43.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
Global best overOver 43.5 @ $1.95 TABtouch
AU best DEN ML
$1.45 Bet Right
AU best ARI ML
$2.92 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
Play: ARI +4.5
Model ARI +2.6 · total 38.5Spread · Model recommendation
ARI +4.5
$1.90 SportsBet
Edge +7.1PLAY
Total · Analysis
Under 43.5
$1.95 Dabble AU
Edge +5.0LEAN
Arizona +4.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.90, qualifies as PLAY with a 7.1-point model edge. The forecast is Arizona 20.5, Denver 17.9. Arizona's offensive profile is slightly stronger, while Denver's better defence keeps the projected scoring modest. The Cardinals have a useful route around the left edge; Denver's short-right passing matchup offers Bo Nix a more frequently used way to challenge Arizona than its highlighted deep-left route.
The personnel evidence is incomplete at this snapshot. Both official team listings retain their expected starters, Jacoby Brissett and Nix, but the captured injury pages did not yet expose current practice tables. Jeremiyah Love's previous absence does not establish his status for this game. Updated reports could change the practical matchup, and the team-history forecast does not automatically price those developments. No extra injury adjustment is included. Under 43.5 at Dabble AU is a separate LEAN. The Arizona label is a model recommendation, not an executed bet.
Why · ARI runs off left end (+0.16 EPA/play vs DEN)
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DEN · 638 dropbacks
Bo Nix
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (466 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.38 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced27%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ARI defence: pressure 26% · blitz 28%
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DEN defence: pressure 35% · blitz 37%
DEN offence vs ARI coverage
| Shell | ARI usage | DEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.09 (205 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (129 snaps) | +0.06 (182 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (107 snaps) | +0.26 (120 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (83 snaps) | +0.11 (70 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (58 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
ARI man coverage 28% · DEN vs man +0.25, vs zone +0.07
ARI offence vs DEN coverage
| Shell | DEN usage | ARI EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.09 (146 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (162 snaps) | +0.05 (219 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (112 snaps) | +0.00 (171 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (61 snaps) | -0.12 (81 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (50 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
DEN man coverage 45% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
DEN tendencies
Play action rate22% · -0.04 vs -0.12 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate7% (25 snaps)
Screen rate10% (21 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 14%, 22 8%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 37% / 45%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.04 (68 snaps) · neutral -0.13 (75 snaps)
ARI tendencies
Play action rate16% · +0.08 vs +0.00 EPA (41 snaps)
RPO rate1% (4 snaps)
Screen rate7% (17 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / 28% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.13 (73 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (81 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2