Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
Arizona +5.5 at 1.90 with Unibet remains a PLAY recommendation, with a 8.1-point edge at the refreshed home-side offer. The larger cushion improves the published line from the opening preview while the model itself is unchanged. Denver has useful passing matchup areas, so the case for Arizona comes from the price of the spread against the overall projection rather than a claim of dominance across every category. Under 43.5 at 1.90 with SportsBet is a secondary LEAN.
Arizona is missing Jeremiyah Love, Walter Nolen, Andrew Wingard and Jon Gaines II, with Budda Baker and other defenders questionable. Those losses reduce backfield and defensive options. Denver activated Jonah Coleman and Jonathon Cooper, but Talanoa Hufanga is out and Pat Surtain II remains questionable, keeping the secondary a live issue. Jaylen Waddle has no designation. The model retains its through-Week-6 team history and adds no numerical injury adjustments. Final inactives are still needed to settle the remaining personnel questions.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix · expected starter
Bo Nix remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Pat Surtain II remains questionable. Jonah Coleman and Jonathon Cooper were activated Saturday; Tyler Badie and Jonah Elliss went to injured reserve. Talanoa Hufanga is out. Jaylen Waddle and Riley Moss have no designation. Coleman restores a backfield option and Cooper adds edge depth, but Surtain and Hufanga still shape the secondary outlook.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett · expected starter
Jacoby Brissett remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Jeremiyah Love, Walter Nolen, Andrew Wingard and Jon Gaines II are out. Budda Baker, Max Melton and Darius Robinson are questionable. Jedrick Wills and Garrett Williams have no game designation. Losing Love reduces backfield options, while the defensive absences and secondary doubts matter against Denver's passing game.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
| Shell | ARI usage | DEN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.09 (205 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (129 snaps) | +0.06 (182 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (107 snaps) | +0.26 (120 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (83 snaps) | +0.11 (70 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (58 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Shell | DEN usage | ARI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.09 (146 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (162 snaps) | +0.05 (219 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (112 snaps) | +0.00 (171 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (61 snaps) | -0.12 (81 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (50 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
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