NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
DEN
Denver Broncos
@
Home
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 7:05am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 4:05pm ET
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Spread
LAC +3.5
Total
42.5
DEN ML
$1.57
LAC ML
$2.60
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
DENRating +0.4
Off EPA/play
+0.071
Def EPA/play
+0.064
Exp points
22.6
Offence by zone
-.01
-.07
-.16
+.03
-.16
-.01
+.01
+.01
-.11
+.05
-.05
+.08
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.39
-.20
-.04
-.11
-.04
+.02
+.17
-.08
+.06
+.18
-.07
+.01
-.06
LACRating -4.0
Off EPA/play
+0.007
Def EPA/play
+0.079
Exp points
19.6
Offence by zone
-.05
-.27
-.10
-.08
-.32
-.08
-.08
+.17
+.04
-.10
-.18
+.04
+.09
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.15
-.20
+.11
+.05
-.26
+.15
+.33
+.18
-.02
-.20
-.12
-.07
-.06
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
DEN offence vs LAC
runs off left end
+0.34 EPA/play
DEN offence vs LAC
short-right passing
+0.15 EPA/play
DEN offence vs LAC
runs behind left guard
+0.19 EPA/play
Market
Spread (LAC)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
LAC +3.5 @ $1.91 Unibet
AU best (other side)
DEN -3 @ $1.75 PlayUp
Global best
LAC +3.5 @ $1.91 DraftKings
Total
Open 42.5 → Now 42.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 41.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 41.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best DEN ML
$1.57 Neds
AU best LAC ML
$2.60 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
No edge
Model LAC -3.0 · total 42.2Spread · Analysis
LAC +3.5
$1.91 Unibet
Edge +0.5PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 41
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +1.2PASS
Both markets are PASS. The model projects 42.2 total points, giving Over 41 at PlayUp, priced at 1.85, only a 1.2-point edge. The Chargers +3.5 at Unibet, priced at 1.91, have a 0.5-point edge against the projected 3.0-point Denver win. Denver's runs off left end show a +0.34 EPA per play matchup advantage, but that does not produce a qualifying market signal.
The Chargers' Wednesday absences included Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, Ladd McConkey and Derwin James, with Trevor Penning in concussion protocol. Denver also had Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss absent. These practice reports leave material availability questions without final game statuses; no new numerical injury adjustment is applied. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · DEN runs off left end (+0.34 EPA/play vs LAC, LAC's weakest zone)
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
DEN · 638 dropbacks
Bo Nix
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (466 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.38 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced27%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
LAC defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
LAC · 566 dropbacks
Justin Herbert
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.32 (359 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (207 snaps)
Pressure rate faced37%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DEN defence: pressure 35% · blitz 39%
DEN offence vs LAC coverage
| Shell | LAC usage | DEN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (184 snaps) | +0.09 (205 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 26% (151 snaps) | +0.06 (182 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 13% (77 snaps) | +0.26 (120 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 12% (68 snaps) | +0.11 (70 snaps) | +0.07 |
LAC man coverage 22% · DEN vs man +0.25, vs zone +0.07
LAC offence vs DEN coverage
| Shell | DEN usage | LAC EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.05 (193 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 23% (162 snaps) | +0.05 (158 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 16% (112 snaps) | +0.07 (130 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (61 snaps) | -0.36 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (50 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
DEN man coverage 45% · LAC vs man +0.07, vs zone -0.04
DEN tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs -0.07 EPA (31 snaps)
RPO rate6% (14 snaps)
Screen rate9% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 14%, 22 8%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 39% / 45%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (45 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (43 snaps)
LAC tendencies
Play action rate28% · +0.12 vs -0.26 EPA (40 snaps)
RPO rate4% (10 snaps)
Screen rate8% (11 snaps)
Personnel11 58%, 21 14%, 22 7%, 20 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.06 (64 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (43 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:05 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2